scholarly journals Financial Sustainability Evaluation and Forecasting Using the Markov Chain: The Case of the Wine Business

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Rekova ◽  
Hanna Telnova ◽  
Oleh Kachur ◽  
Iryna Golubkova ◽  
Tomas Baležentis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Level Transition ◽  
A Company

This paper proposes a framework for assessing the financial sustainability of a wine producing company. The probabilistic approach is used to model the expected changes in the financial situation of an enterprise based on the historical trends. The case of an enterprise in Ukraine is considered as an illustration. The Markov chain is adopted for the forecasting exercise. Using the Markov chain framework allows one to predict the probability of financial security change for several periods ahead. The forecast relies on the transition probabilities obtained by exploiting the historical data. The proposed framework is implemented by construction of the financial security level transition matrices for three scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). The case study of a Ukrainian wine producing company is considered. The possibilities for applying the proposed method in establishing anti-crisis financial strategy are discussed. The research shows how forecasting the financial security level of a company can serve in anti-crisis financial potential buildup.

scholarly journals An Interval Mathematic-Based Methodology for Reliable Resilience Analysis of Power Systems in the Presence of Data Uncertainties

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 6632
Author(s):  
Antonio Pepiciello ◽  
Alfredo Vaccaro ◽  
Loi Lei Lai
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Transient State ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Power Networks ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Impact Events

Prevention and mitigation of low probability, high impact events is becoming a priority for power system operators, as natural disasters are hitting critical infrastructures with increased frequency all over the world. Protecting power networks against these events means improving their resilience in planning, operation and restoration phases. This paper introduces a framework based on time-varying interval Markov Chains to assess system’s resilience to catastrophic events. After recognizing the difficulties in accurately defining transition probabilities, due to the presence of data uncertainty, this paper proposes a novel approach based on interval mathematics, which allows representing the elements of the transition matrices by intervals, and computing reliable enclosures of the transient state probabilities. The proposed framework is validated on a case study, which is based on the resilience analysis of a power system in the presence of multiple contemporary faults. The results show how the proposed framework can successfully enclose all the possible outcomes obtained through Monte Carlo simulation. The main advantages are the low computational burden and high scalability achieved.

The robustness of positive recurrence and recurrence of Markov chains under perturbations of the transition probabilities

1975 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 744-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Tweedie
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
Finite Number ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
General State ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Positive Recurrence ◽  
Markov Chain Models ◽  
Countable Space ◽  
General State Space

In many Markov chain models, the immediate characteristic of importance is the positive recurrence of the chain. In this note we investigate whether positivity, and also recurrence, are robust properties of Markov chains when the transition laws are perturbed. The chains we consider are on a fairly general state space : when specialised to a countable space, our results are essentially that, if the transition matrices of two irreducible chains coincide on all but a finite number of columns, then positivity of one implies positivity of both; whilst if they coincide on all but a finite number of rows and columns, recurrence of one implies recurrence of both. Examples are given to show that these results (and their general analogues) cannot in general be strengthened.

scholarly journals Analisis Markov Chain terhadap Persediaan: Studi Kasus pada CV Sinar Bahagia Group

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1071
Author(s):  
Haryadi Sarjono ◽  
Edwin Edwin ◽  
Himawan Sentosa ◽  
Frendy Bong
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Know How ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
The Cost ◽  
A Company

Supply is one of the most important factors for the company, but there are still so many companies who don’t understand about how to monitoring their supplies so there will be not too much or too little supplies for them to manage. Some of the important things are to know how many supplies that a company should prepare to fulfill the needs of supply for the next period. This essay is aimed to investigate whether there was a shift/moving towards the supplies and the factor, which trigger the moving, how many supplies that the company should have and the cost that they have to pay to fulfill the supplies. The result shows that there was a moving of supplies, which has been cause by some factors. The kind of research that being used is a descriptive research, with a quantitative data. And the methods that being used is the case study, The point of this research is because of the moving of supplies that has been caused by the age of the supplies, the company have to calculate how many supplies that they should have to fulfill the needs of the next period. 

scholarly journals Assessment of financial security level: a case study for the organization OJSC “Sintez”

2016 ◽  
pp. 83-84
Author(s):  
Anna Sergeevna Trapeznikova ◽  
◽  
Mariya Sergeevna Stromko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Level ◽  
Financial Security

scholarly journals Investigating Persistence in the US Mutual Fund Market: A Mobility Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-83
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Drakos ◽  
Nicholas Giannakopoulos ◽  
Panagiotis Theodore Konstantinou
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Performance Persistence ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

Performance persistence in the US mutual fund market is investigated, modeling risk-adjusted performance as a Markov Chain. This allows us to explore whether there is a higher probability for funds to remain in their initial ranking, compared to the probability that funds exhibit some kind of movement. We find some degree of inertia due to non-uniformity of transition probabilities across states. Our analysis allows also assesses the proximity of empirical transition matrices to two benchmark matrices, identifying the no-persistence/perfect immobility cases. We find that the observed transition matrices are closer to the no-persistence benchmark and also that performance persistence has decreased over time.

The robustness of positive recurrence and recurrence of Markov chains under perturbations of the transition probabilities

1975 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 744-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Tweedie
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
Finite Number ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
General State ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
Positive Recurrence ◽  
Markov Chain Models ◽  
Countable Space ◽  
General State Space

In many Markov chain models, the immediate characteristic of importance is the positive recurrence of the chain. In this note we investigate whether positivity, and also recurrence, are robust properties of Markov chains when the transition laws are perturbed. The chains we consider are on a fairly general state space : when specialised to a countable space, our results are essentially that, if the transition matrices of two irreducible chains coincide on all but a finite number of columns, then positivity of one implies positivity of both; whilst if they coincide on all but a finite number of rows and columns, recurrence of one implies recurrence of both. Examples are given to show that these results (and their general analogues) cannot in general be strengthened.

scholarly journals Open access textbooks and financial sustainability: A case study on Flat World Knowledge

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Levi Hilton III ◽  
David Wiley
Keyword(s):  
College Students ◽  
Open Access ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
World Knowledge ◽  
One Year ◽  
A Company

Many college students and their families are concerned about the high costs of textbooks. A company called Flat World Knowledge both gives away and sells open-source textbooks in a way it believes to be financially sustainable. This article reports on the financial sustainability of the Flat World Knowledge open-source textbook model after one year of operation.<br /><input id="gwProxy" type="hidden" /><input id="jsProxy" onclick="if(typeof(jsCall)=='function'){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" type="hidden" />

scholarly journals Behavior analysis of convective and stratiform rain using Markovian approach over Mediterranean region from meteorological radar data

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6225-6250 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Lazri ◽  
S. Hameg ◽  
S. Ameur ◽  
J. M. Brucker ◽  
F. Ouallouche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
National Office ◽  
Markovian Approach

Abstract. The aim of this study is to analyze the chronological behavior of precipitation in the north of Algeria using a Markovian approach. The probabilistic approach presented here proposes to study the evolution of the rainfall phenomenon in two distinct study areas, one located in sea and other located in ground. The data that we have used are provided by the National Office of Meteorology in Algiers (ONM). They are a series of images collected by the meterological radar of Setif during the rainy season 2001/2002. A decision criterion is established and based on radar reflectivity in order to classify the precipitation events located in both areas. At each radar observation, a state of precipitations is classified, either convective (heavy precipitation) or stratiform (average precipitation) both for the "sea" and for the "ground". On the whole, a time series of precipitations composed of three states; S0 (no raining), S1 (stratiform precipitation) and S2 (convective precipitation), is obtained for each of the two areas. Thereby, we studied and characterized the behavior of precipitation in time by a Markov chain of order one with three states. Transition probabilities Pij of state Si to state Sj are calculated. The results show that rainfall is well described by a Markov chain of order one with three states. Indeed, the stationary probabilities, which are calculated by using the Markovian model, and the actual probabilities are almost identical.

Implementation of Booking Performance Application Using Bootstrap Case Study in PT XYZ

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Arfan Sansprayada ◽  
Kartika Mariskhana
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
System Development ◽  
Basic Requirement ◽  
Application Development ◽  
Information System Development ◽  
Special Expertise ◽  
A Company ◽  
Need For Information

Abstract—The need for information system development in a company is a basic requirement that must be met by each company in order to run its business processes properly. This is the basic key in a company in order to provide maximum results to find as many profits or profits. Application development or requirements in the application also provide speed for employees to carry out their activities to work properly and optimally. The development of the era requires that companies must be productive and have innovations so that the business wheel of the company can run well. This is based on the development of technology that is so fast that it requires special expertise in its application. This research is expected to be able to help some problems that exist in a company. Where its application can make it easier for employees to carry out their respective duties and roles in order to maximize their potential. For companies, the application of this application can accommodate the company's business wheels so that they can be properly and correctly documented .   Keywords : Systems, Information, Applications

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