scholarly journals Research on the Transmission Ability of China’s Thermal Coal Price Information Based on Directed Limited Penetrable Interdependent Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7815
Author(s):  
Guangyong Zhang ◽  
Lixin Tian ◽  
Min Fu ◽  
Bingyue Wan ◽  
Wenbin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Price Information ◽  
Statistical Research ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Interdependent Network ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Infectious Source ◽  
Transmission Ability

According to the criterion of the visibility graph and the irreversibility of the time series, this paper proposes a new perspective to construct the directed limited penetrable interdependent network (DLPIN) for thermal coal between the opening and closing price series after the Johansen cointegration test. The results of the statistical research and cointegration analysis show that there is a cointegration relationship between the opening and the closing price series, and the relationship between them does not follow a normal distribution. By analyzing the topological characteristic of the DLPIN, the results indicate that there is an obvious "community structure" and scale-free features, which show that there are groups and differences among the thermal coal price, and most of them have a weak transmission ability of the thermal coal price information; only a few of them have a strong transmission ability. The differences of the in-degree and out-degree show that some thermal coal prices have a weak influence on the other prices but are strongly affected by the other prices. In addition, most of the thermal coal prices are far away from the infectious source of the price information; only a few are close to the infectious source of the price information to a certain extent. Obviously, the influence of the thermal coal price has a certain range, which is closely related in a short distance. Furthermore, these results can reveal the internal laws of the main price fluctuation and information transmission for the thermal coal, and some references can be provided to reduce risk investment and improve capital return for the related investors.

Statistics and Economic History

1941 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kuznets
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Study ◽  
Statistical Research ◽  
Historical Approach ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Inquiry ◽  
Analytical Tools

This paper deals with the relation between statistical analysis as applied in economic inquiry and history as written or interpreted by economic historians. Although both these branches of economic study derive from the same body of raw materials of inquiry—the recordable past and present of economic society—each has developed in comparative isolation from the other. Statistical economists have failed to utilize adequately the contributions that economic historians have made to our knowledge of the past; and historians have rarely employed either the analytical tools or the basic theoretical hypotheses of statistical research. It is the thesis of this essay that such failure to effect a close interrelation between historical approach and statistical analysis needs to be corrected in the light of the final goal of economic study.

scholarly journals Evaluating CCS Investment of China by a Novel Real Option-Based Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongrui Chu ◽  
Lun Ran ◽  
Ran Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Robust Least Squares ◽  
And Storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is an effective method to mitigate CO2 emission pressure; however it is hard to be evaluated due to uncertainties. This paper establishes a real options analysis (ROA) model to evaluate CCS investment from the perspective of the existing thermal power plant by considering the fluctuations of electricity price, carbon price, and thermal coal price. The model is solved by the proposed robust Least Squares Monte Carlo method and China is taken as a case study to assess power plant’s CCS investment revenue. In the case study, robust ROA and ROA are compared under some CCS incentive factors. The results indicate that the proposed robust ROA is more realistic and suitable for CCS evaluation than common ROA to some extent. Finally, a policy schema to promote CCS investment is derived.

scholarly journals Examining integration between Agra and Delhi potato markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeev Ranjan Kumar ◽  
G. K. Jha ◽  
Kapil . Choudhary ◽  
Neeraj . Budhlakoti
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
The Other ◽  
Price Information ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Geographically Isolated

Market integration generally assumed that prices changes in one market will be fully transmitted to the other markets. Markets that are not integrated may convey inaccurate price information that might distort marketing decisions and contribute to inefficient product movements. In this study, we examine the integration between Agra and Delhi potato markets. In order to identify a possible co-integration between Agra and Delhi potato markets, Johansen’s co-integration test has been used. Johnson co-integration test result indicated that even though the selected potato markets are geographically isolated, they are well-connected in terms of prices of potato, demonstrating that potato markets have long-run price linkage across them.

scholarly journals Forecasting Bitcoin closing price series using linear regression and neural networks models

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e279
Author(s):  
Nicola Uras ◽  
Lodovica Marchesi ◽  
Michele Marchesi ◽  
Roberto Tonelli
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Financial Prices

In this article we forecast daily closing price series of Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum cryptocurrencies, using data on prices and volumes of prior days. Cryptocurrencies price behaviour is still largely unexplored, presenting new opportunities for researchers and economists to highlight similarities and differences with standard financial prices. We compared our results with various benchmarks: one recent work on Bitcoin prices forecasting that follows different approaches, a well-known paper that uses Intel, National Bank shares and Microsoft daily NASDAQ closing prices spanning a 3-year interval and another, more recent paper which gives quantitative results on stock market index predictions. We followed different approaches in parallel, implementing both statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms: the Simple Linear Regression (SLR) model for uni-variate series forecast using only closing prices, and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for multivariate series using both price and volume data. We used two artificial neural networks as well: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long short-term memory (LSTM). While the entire time series resulted to be indistinguishable from a random walk, the partitioning of datasets into shorter sequences, representing different price “regimes”, allows to obtain precise forecast as evaluated in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) and relative Root Mean Square Error (relativeRMSE). In this case the best results are obtained using more than one previous price, thus confirming the existence of time regimes different from random walks. Our models perform well also in terms of time complexity, and provide overall results better than those obtained in the benchmark studies, improving the state-of-the-art.

The International Coal Trade and Price Outlook

1988 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 425-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Supply Curve ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
World Supply ◽  
Future Demand

The paper starts with a brief review of recent trends in the international coal market and an examination of the linkage between coal and oil prices. It is argued that while oil prices had a significant impact on coal prices in the 1973–87 period, future coal price trends will be driven more by demand and supply developments in the coal market itself. Taking thermal coal as an example, future demand and supply developments are examined. Demand and supply are brought together by using an aggregate world supply curve. The plausible range of prices for 2000 is determined by reading off the supply curve at the appropriate projected demand levels.

The Statistical Study of French Crises

1950 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
David S. Landes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
French Revolution ◽  
Statistical Study ◽  
The Other ◽  
General Study ◽  
Early Nineteenth Century ◽  
Price Series ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
The Subject

Two major themes have been developed by Ernest Labrousse in his well-known works on prices and income. One, a reinterpretation of the origins of the French Revolution, does not concern us here. The other, a theory of an agriculturally determined business cycle, has recently been confirmed for the early nineteenth century by a young historian and student of Labrousse, M. A. Chabert, and forms the subject of this paper. Chabert's first work offered time series of French prices from 1798 to 1820, a hitherto neglected interval falling between the monetary anarchy of the assignats and the period covered by the tables of the Bureau de la Statistique Générale. He has followed this with a more ambitious effort, a general study of the social and economic development of France during the same years, as reflected in the price series already presented and other data assembled since.

scholarly journals Persepsi Follower Terhadap Pemasaran Restoran melalui Instagram di Surabaya

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Regina Jokom
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
The Other ◽  
Marketing Communication ◽  
Price Information ◽  
Communication Context ◽  
Food Photography

Instagram is one of social media which is growing popular currently. Food photography trend cause restaurants use Instagram as one of their marketing tools. Therefore, this research aims to describe restaurant followers’ perception toward Instagram marketing communication. The components of marketing communication used are context, communication, collaboration and connection. Furthermore, 791 questionnaires are collected through survey to the followers. The result shows followers perceived that the overall marketing communication is good. Among four components of marketing communication, context is perceived the best in terms of using understandable language and interesting picture or photo. On the other side, the collaboration needs to be improved. Therefore, restaurants need to enhance the content with more interesting and interactive posting instead of only give product or price information. In addition, restaurants should pay more attention to the follower’s comments and questions with answering and responding to it.        

scholarly journals Test for Aggregational Gaussianity (AG) in Petroleum Prices Returns

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-97
Author(s):  
M. E. Archibong ◽  
I. D. Essi
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Empirical Distribution ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
The Other ◽  
Invariant Property ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Graphical Approach ◽  
Petroleum Price ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Anderson Darling

The work aims at investigating and establishing if Aggregational Gaussianity, (AG) is in the dynamics of petroleum prices. This AG aspect is the phenomenon in which the empirical distribution of log-returns tends to normality (or as the time scale over which the returns are calculated increases). In order to achieve this, the petroleum price series was tested for arch effects. In addition, tests for Aggregational Gaussianity, (AG) were carried out using qualitative (graphical) approach and inferential approach, (involving statistical inference). The study shows that the presence of arch effects does not guarantee existence of AG. It is also observed that qualitative (graphical) approach may suggest normality and hence, presence of  AG, on the other hand, inferential approach (involving statistical tests) gives a better picture of the actual conclusion, of the presence (or otherwise) of AG in the data set, with a 99.97% rejection from normality by the three tests-Kolmogorov-simonorv,Shapiro-Wilks, and Anderson-darling. In the circumstance, there is no evidence to confirm a discernible presence of AG in the dynamics of petroleum prices. The non-existence of AG in the study shows the instability in the dynamics of petroleum prices, since one cannot invoke normality as an invariant property this, among other factors, make the economy unstable as it is oil- driven. However, since the highest percentage of the budget for the country is based on the petroleum sales, which as this study reveals is unstable, hence, diversification of the economy is proposed. The softwares used in the work are Eviews 10, Minitab 18, Spss 17, Easy-fit 5.6 professional, and R 3.2.2.

scholarly journals Construction Fragile Digital Watermark Used by a Team of Authors in Executable Files

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-73
Author(s):  
I. V. Nechta
Keyword(s):  
Unique Solution ◽  
Digital Watermark ◽  
The Other ◽  
System Of Equations ◽  
Algebraic Equations ◽  
Statistical Research ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Linear Algebraic Equations ◽  
Software Product ◽  
The One

According to statistical research, a violation of license agreements annually causes huge losses to software companies. On the one hand, illegal copies of the software product are created, on the other hand, some fragments of the programs are used by third parties unauthorized. Another important problem is the violation of the program integrity, for example, in terms of blocking functions of the license key checking. In this regard, the task of construction methods for protecting intellectual property in software applications is highly relevant. Previously known methods solve this problem by means of fragile digital watermarks. Below is presented a method for constructing a fragile digital watermark used in executable files. A model of a developers team creating software product protected by DWM is considered. The application of this method will allow to reveal the fact of the container integrity violation, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, will allow the author, if it is necessary, to confirm his participation in the development and embedding of the DWM. In this method we use mathematical properties of systems of linear algebraic equations, digital signature and cryptographic hash functions. The scheme is based on the Kronecker – Capelli theorem. To find the group password the co-author who is in the group finds one root of the consistent system of linear algebraic equations. The indicated system consists of n equations and contains n + 1 variables. For an outsider who is not in the group, the system of equations does not have a unique solution. The co-author of the group is able to calculate one variable in system based on their passport data. Therefore, the system of equations for such co-author has a unique solution. Various attacks on a protected by the new method are analyzed, and it is shown its efficiency. The constructed method can be applied in companies with a large team of developers.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document