scholarly journals Dynamic Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Renovation of a School in a Mediterranean Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6375
Author(s):  
Cristina Baglivo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Static Condition ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Building Performance ◽  
School Building ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Energy Simulations ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the effects of long-term climate change on retrofit actions on a school building located in a Mediterranean climate. Dynamic energy simulations were performed using Termolog EpiX 11, first with conventional climate data and then with future year climate data exported from the CCWorldWeatherGen computational software. To date, many incentive actions are promoted for school renovations, but are these measures effective in preventing the discomfort that will be found due to overheating generated by climate change? Today, one of the main objectives in retrofit measures is the achievement of ZEB (Zero Energy Building) performance. Achieving this target requires first and foremost a high-performance envelope. This study evaluates the impact of retrofit strategies mostly applied to the school building envelope, over the years, considering three different time horizons, until 2080. Thermal performance indices and indoor operative temperature under free-floating were evaluated. The results highlight that, with a changing climate, it is no longer possible to assume a constant static condition to evaluate retrofit actions, but it is necessary to develop a predictive mathematical model that considers the design variability for future years. There is an urgent necessity to ensure both the safety and comfort of buildings while also anticipating future variations in climate.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

Innovative urban climate model PALM-4U as a support tool for municipal climate adaptation strategies.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonina Kriuger ◽  
Alexander Reinbold ◽  
Martina Schubert-Frisius ◽  
Jörg Cortekar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Performance Model ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Funding Program ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Comfort Indices

<p>Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change. At the same time, cities change slowly. Accordingly, preparatory measures to adapt to climate change have to be taken urgently. High-performance urban climate models with various applications can form the basis for prospective planning decisions, however, as of today no such model exists that can be easily applied outside of the scientific community. Therefore, the funding program Urban Climate Under Change [UC]<sup>2</sup> aims to further develop the new urban climate model PALM-4U (Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model for Urban Applications) into a practice-oriented and user-friendly product that meets the needs of municipalities and other practical users in addition to scientific research.</p><p>Specifically, the high-performance model PALM-4U allows simulation of entire large cities comprising the area over 1.000 km<sup>2</sup> with a grid size of down to few meters. One of our goals within the project ProPolis is to design and test the practical implementation of PALM-4U in standard and innovative application fields which include thermal comfort (indices like PT, PET, UTCI), cold air balance (source areas, reach and others), local wind comfort (indices derived from medium winds and gusts) as well as dispersion of pollutants.</p><p>In close cooperation with our practice partners, we explore the potential of PALM-4U to support the urban planning processes in each specific application setting. Additionally, with development of the fit for purpose graphic user interface, manuals and trainings we aim to enable practitioners to apply the model for their individual planning questions and adaptation measures.</p><p>In our presentation, we will show an application case of PALM-4U in a major German city. We will investigate the effect of a planned development area on the local climate and the impact of different climate change adaptation measures (such as extensive vs. intensive green roofs). The comparative simulations of the current state and planning scenarios with integrated green and blue infrastructure should provide arguments for the municipal decision making in consideration of climate change aspects in a densely built-up environment, e.g. urban heat stress.</p>

scholarly journals Spring and autumn phenology in sub-mesothermal beech stands from the southwestern extremity of the Carpathians

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 1057-1069
Author(s):  
Radu POPESCU ◽  
Neculae ȘOFLETEA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
The Carpathians ◽  
The North ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Forest Sites ◽  
Phenological Changes ◽  
Southwestern Area ◽  
The Impact

The research carried out was aimed to assessing the phenological behavior of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the southwestern area of the Carpathians, in submesothermal forest sites, differentiated from the majority mesothermal ones of this species. The data obtained may be used for predicting the phenological changes of the species, especially in the Carpathian area, under the future influence of expected climate change. Assessments for spring and autumn phenology (buds burst -BB and foliation, flowering and leaves senescence) were carried out on a transect with a difference in altitude of 1000 meters, in phenological research areas located at 200 m, 700 m and 1200 m. At each altitude level, 100 trees of I and II Kraft classes were phenologically characterized: 50 trees on the south-facing slope (sunny exposure) and 50 on the north-facing slope (shade exposure).The phenological data were interpreted in relation to climate data recorded in each area by a HOBO U23 Pro v2 sensor. The site conditions of submesothermal climate in the low altitude area led to DOY (day of the year) values below 100. The phenological differentiation of populations is evident in relation with the altitude, while at the same altitudinal level the influence of the exposure was much lower. The gradiental values by altitude sectors highlighted the nonlinearity of the development of foliation phenophase, the value being lower in the first 500 m, where the beech is under the impact of the submesothermal climate. It has been proven both the dependence of the foliation onset depending on the cumulation of temperatures in relation to the DOY moment and also on the values recorded throughout the vegetative rest. The altitudinal gradiental values resulting for flowering in the first and second altitudinal half of transect also differentiate the stands, but are lower than that resulting for BB. The leaves senescence has a delay of 1.8 up to 2.4 days per 100 meters altitude, and the length of the vegetation season is reduced more sharply in the upper half of the analyzed altitudinal transect. The sub-mesothermal climate could be involved in condensation of spring phenophases in the stands of the lower half of the researched area. Our data may be used for predicting the phenological changes, especially in the Carpathian area, under the expected climate change.

scholarly journals The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Oat Lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Mohammadi ◽  
John Finnan ◽  
Chris Baker ◽  
Mark Sterling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Republic Of Ireland ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years’ time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Characterization of the Koshi Basin and the Impact of Climate Change

2012 ◽  
pp. 18-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luna Bharati ◽  
Pabitra Gurung ◽  
Priyantha Jayakody
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Relative Standard ◽  
Koshi Basin ◽  
The Impact

Assessment of surface and groundwater resources and water availability for different sectors is a great challenge in Nepal mainly due to data limitations. In this study, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the hydrology and to calculate sub-basin wise water balances in the Koshi Basin, Nepal. The impacts of Climate Change (CC) projections from four GCMs (CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0,ECHam5 and MIROC 3.2) on the hydrology of the basin were also calculated. This paper summarizes some of the key results. The full report of the study is in preparation.The basin can be divided into the trans-mountain, central mountain, eastern mountain, eastern hill and central hill regions. Results show that current precipitation is highest in the central mountain and eastern mountain regions during both the dry and wet seasons. Water balance results showed that Actual ET as well as Runoff is also highest in the central and eastern mountain regions followed by the mid-hills. Results from climate change projections showed that average temperature will increase in the 2030’s by 0.7-0.9° Celsius. Results for 2030s projections also show that during the dry season, precipitation increases in the trans-mountain but decreases in the other regions for both A2 and B1 scenarios. During the wet season, the MarkSim projections show a decrease in precipitation in all the regions. Net water yields also increased for the trans-mountain zone during the dry season but show varying results during the monsoon. Assessment of projected future flow time series showed that there will be an increase in the number of extreme events; i.e., both low flows and large floods. There is however; a high degree of uncertainty in the projected climate data as the relative standard deviation was quite high.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7198 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.18-22

Analysis of Facade Redesign for Enhanced Satisfaction and Improved Building Performance

2014 ◽  
Vol 490-491 ◽  
pp. 845-853
Author(s):  
Serik Tokbolat ◽  
Sarim Al-Zubaidy
Keyword(s):  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Building Performance ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Existing Building ◽  
Low Energy Buildings ◽  
Wind Intensity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Occupant Satisfaction

The building envelope is known to be an important aspect of design and engineering of ultra-low energy buildings. The facade (building skin) could have the potential to redirect and filter daylight, influence frontal external wind intensity, provide natural ventilation, manage heat transfer, enhance occupant well-being, and create visual and physical connections between the inside and outside. The advances in facade technologies have been triggered in part by higher energy prices, stricter building codes, and higher occupant and owner expectations regarding the quality of the finished construction. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the effect of redesigning an existing building facade and other building improvements. It assesses the impact on external environmental conditions (wind speed and pressure) by employing computational fluid dynamics. The impact of these changes on occupant satisfaction was also gauged. It is hoped that this analysis will provide a framework for assessing benefits of improved facades in other buildings and applications

scholarly journals Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on the spatially distributed waterbalance in Thuringia, Germany

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 33-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Krause ◽  
S. Hanisch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conceptual Hydrological Model

Abstract. The impact of projected climate change on the long-term hydrological balance and seasonal variability in the federal German state of Thuringia was assessed and analysed. For this study projected climate data for the scenarios A2 and B1 were used in conjunction with a conceptual hydrological model. The downscaled climate data are based on outputs of the general circulation model ECHAM5 and provide synthetic climate time series for a large number of precipitation and climate stations in Germany for the time period of 1971 to 2100. These data were used to compute the spatially distributed hydrological quantities, i.e. precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and runoff generation with a conceptual hydrological model. This paper discusses briefly the statistical downscaling method and its validation in Thuringia and includes an overview of the hydrological model. The achieved results show that the projected climate conditions in Thuringia follow the general European climate trends – increased temperature, wetter winters, drier summers. But, in terms of the spatial distribution and interannual variability regional differences occur. The analysis showed that the general increase of the winter precipitation is more distinct in the mid-mountain region and less pronounced in the lowland whereas the decrease of summer precipitation is higher in the lowland and less distinct in the mid-mountains. The actual evapotranspiration showed a statewide increase due to higher temperatures which is largest in the summer period. The resulting runoff generation in winter was found to increase in the mid-mountains and to slightly decrease in the lowland region. In summer and fall a decrease in runoff generation was estimated for the entire area due to lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration rates. These spatially differentiated results emphasize the need of high resolution climate input data and distributed modelling for regional impact analyses.

scholarly journals Prediction of the impact of climate change on the thermal performance of walls and roof in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yassine Kharbouch ◽  
Mohamed Ameur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Heat Loss ◽  
Thermal Performance ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Heat Gain ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Summer Heat ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has become a real challenge in different fields, including the building sector. Understanding and assessing the impact of climate change on building energy performance is still necessary to elaborate new climate-adaptive design measures for future buildings. The building energy consumption for heating and cooling is mainly related to the building envelope thermal performance. In this study, the winter heat loss and summer heat gain indicators are proposed to assess and analyse the potential impact of climate change on opaque building envelope elements for different climate zones in Morocco over the next 40 years. For that purpose, a one-dimensional heat transfer model is used to simulate the heat transfer through the multi-layer structure of the wall/roof. A medium climate change scenario is considered in this study. The results showed that the current average walls and roof summer heat gain is expected to increase of about 19.2–54.3% by the 2060s depending on the climate zone, versus a less important decrease in winter heat loss varies between –10.6 and –20.6%. This paper provides a reliable evaluation of the climate change impact on building envelope thermal performance, which leads to better adjustments in future building envelope designs.

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