scholarly journals Estimating the Size of Dog Populations in Tanzania to Inform Rabies Control

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maganga Sambo ◽  
Katie Hampson ◽  
Joel Changalucha ◽  
Sarah Cleaveland ◽  
Tiziana Lembo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Small Sample ◽  
Rigorous Evaluation ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
School Based ◽  
Dog Ownership ◽  
Rabies Control ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Small Sample Sizes ◽  
Modelling Approach

Estimates of dog population sizes are a prerequisite for delivering effective canine rabies control. However, dog population sizes are generally unknown in most rabies-endemic areas. Several approaches have been used to estimate dog populations but without rigorous evaluation. We compare post-vaccination transects, household surveys, and school-based surveys to determine which most precisely estimates dog population sizes. These methods were implemented across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania, in conjunction with mass dog vaccinations, covering a range of settings, livelihoods, and religious backgrounds. Transects were the most precise method, revealing highly variable patterns of dog ownership, with human/dog ratios ranging from 12.4:1 to 181.3:1 across districts. Both household and school-based surveys generated imprecise and, sometimes, inaccurate estimates, due to small sample sizes in relation to the heterogeneity in patterns of dog ownership. Transect data were subsequently used to develop a predictive model for estimating dog populations in districts lacking transect data. We predicted a dog population of 2,316,000 (95% CI 1,573,000–3,122,000) in Tanzania and an average human/dog ratio of 20.7:1. Our modelling approach has the potential to be applied to predicting dog population sizes in other areas where mass dog vaccinations are planned, given census and livelihood data. Furthermore, we recommend post-vaccination transects as a rapid and effective method to refine dog population estimates across large geographic areas and to guide dog vaccination programmes in settings with mostly free roaming dog populations.

scholarly journals Estimating the Size of Dog Populations in Tanzania to Inform Rabies Control

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maganga Sambo ◽  
Katie Hampson ◽  
Joel Changalucha ◽  
Sarah Cleaveland ◽  
Tiziana Lembo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Household Surveys ◽  
Rigorous Evaluation ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
School Based ◽  
Dog Ownership ◽  
Rabies Control ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Modelling Approach

Estimates of dog population sizes are a prerequisite for delivering effective canine rabies control. However, dog population sizes are generally unknown in most rabies-endemic areas. Several approaches have been used to estimate dog populations but without rigorous evaluation. We compare post-vaccination transects, household surveys and school-based surveys to determine which most precisely estimates dog population sizes. These methods were implemented across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania, in conjunction with mass dog vaccinations, covering a range of settings, livelihoods and religious backgrounds. Transects were the most precise method, revealing highly variable patterns of dog ownership, with human: dog ratios ranging from 12.4:1 to 181.3:1 across districts. Both household and school-based surveys generated imprecise and sometimes inaccurate estimates, possible due to low sample size. Transect data were subsequently used to develop a predictive model for estimating dog populations in districts lacking transect data. We predicted a dog population of 2,316,000 (95% CI 1,573,000-3,122,000) in Tanzania and an average human: dog ratio of 20.7:1. Our modelling approach has the potential be applied to predicting dog population size in other districts where mass dog vaccination is carried out, given census and livelihood data. We recommend transects as a rapid and effective method to refine dog population estimates across large geographic areas and guide dog vaccination programs.

scholarly journals Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Population Size Changes from Sequential Genealogies

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia A Palacios ◽  
John Wakeley ◽  
Sohini Ramachandran
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Broad Class ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Bayesian Nonparametric ◽  
Coalescent Model ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Small Sample Sizes ◽  
Over Time

Sophisticated inferential tools coupled with the coalescent model have recently emerged for estimating past population sizes from genomic data. Accurate methods are available for data from a single locus or from independent loci. Recent methods that model recombination require small sample sizes, make constraining assumptions about population size changes, and do not report measures of uncertainty for estimates. Here, we develop a Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric method coupled with a sequentially Markov coalescent model which allows accurate inference of population sizes over time from a set of genealogies. In contrast to current methods, our approach considers a broad class of recombination events, including those that do not change local genealogies. We show that our method outperforms recent likelihood-based methods that rely on discretization of the parameter space. We illustrate the application of our method to multiple demographic histories, including population bottlenecks and exponential growth. In simulation, our Bayesian approach produces point estimates four times more accurate than maximum likelihood estimation (based on the sum of absolute differences between the truth and the estimated values). Further, our method's credible intervals for population size as a function of time cover 90 percent of true values across multiple demographic scenarios, enabling formal hypothesis testing about population size differences over time. Using genealogies estimated with ARGweaver, we apply our method to European and Yoruban samples from the 1000 Genomes Project and confirm key known aspects of population size history over the past 150,000 years.

scholarly journals Surveillance Opportunities and the Need for Intersectoral Collaboration on Rabies in Sri Lanka

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Pushpakumara Don Bamunusinghage Nihal ◽  
Ashoka Dangolla ◽  
Ranjani Hettiarachchi ◽  
Preeni Abeynayake ◽  
Craig Stephen
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Human Rabies ◽  
Intersectoral Collaboration ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Rabies Control ◽  
Population Sizes

Sri Lanka is progressing towards its goal of eliminating human rabies. This goal rests on programs designed to limit canine rabies, which in turn requires a combination of targeted dog rabies control and a better understanding of the movement of the virus between domestic animals, people, and wildlife. Coordinated and integrated surveillance of the disease between human and animal health sectors underpins successful rabies elimination. Our objective was to review surveillance data from 2005 to 2014 to assemble the first multispecies synthesis of rabies information in Sri Lanka and, in doing so, assess needs and opportunities for a One Health approach to rabies surveillance in the country. Our descriptive epidemiological findings were consistent with other studies showing a decline in human cases, endemic and unchanging numbers of dog cases, a relationship between human density and the occurrence of human and animal cases, and significant gaps in understanding trends in rabies incidences in livestock and wildlife. Assessing the trends in the data from the three government organizations responsible for rabies surveillance was difficult due to lack of information on animal population sizes, unquantified sampling biases due to inequities in access to diagnostic capacities, regulatory and administrative barriers, and a continued reliance on clinical means to establish a diagnosis. The information required for a comprehensive rabies control programme was not standardized or consistent, was not in one place, showed significant gaps in completeness, and was not amenable to routine and rapid analysis. Achieving rabies elimination in Sri Lanka would benefit from harmonization of diagnostic and information management standards across animal and human health sectors as well as equitable access to diagnostic capacity for all regions and species.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Active Management Applied to Meadows with Phengaris Butterflies Occurrence

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 164-173
Author(s):  
T. Bubová ◽  
M. Kulma ◽  
V. Vrabec
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Butterfly Species ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Management Application ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Small Sample Sizes

AbstractIn recent decades, changes in meadows maintenance have reduced the populations of endangered butterfly speciesPhengaris nausithous(Bergsträsser, 1779) andP. teleius(Bergsträsser, 1779). Currently, meadows are either abandoned or intensively used. Unfortunately, both these managements are considered unfavourable for grassland butterfly species. In this study, the effect of suitable meadow management on population sizes of both the above mentionedPhengarisspecies was investigated. The experiment was performed at the locality Dolní Labe (Děčín, Czech Republic). The most suitable models, based on the lowest values of Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes, were selected using MARK statistical software. The results were subsequently compared with data obtained from this locality prior to the management application. Unexpectedly, no significant positive effects were found. To reach the desirable status, suitable management practices should be applied for long-term. To verify the management effect on the population size, the meadows were divided into three groups: (i) application of favourable management, (ii) mowing in inappropriate term, (iii) without management. Based on the statistical evaluation, the management application proved to be the most favourable option for both studied butterflies species.

Integrating Visual and Bayesian Statistical Analyses in Single Case Experimental Research to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Magnitude of a Comprehensive Behavioral Intervention

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prathiba Natesan ◽  
Smita Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Intervention ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Rate Ratio ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Ratio Effect ◽  
Small Sample Sizes

Single case experimental designs (SCEDs) have become an indispensable methodology where randomized control trials may be impossible or even inappropriate. However, the nature of SCED data presents challenges for both visual and statistical analyses. Small sample sizes, autocorrelations, data types, and design types render many parametric statistical analyses and maximum likelihood approaches ineffective. The presence of autocorrelation decreases interrater reliability in visual analysis. The purpose of the present study is to demonstrate a newly developed model called the Bayesian unknown change-point (BUCP) model which overcomes all the above-mentioned data analytic challenges. This is the first study to formulate and demonstrate rate ratio effect size for autocorrelated data, which has remained an open question in SCED research until now. This expository study also compares and contrasts the results from BUCP model with visual analysis, and rate ratio effect size with nonoverlap of all pairs (NAP) effect size. Data from a comprehensive behavioral intervention are used for the demonstration.

No Evidence that Experiencing Physical Warmth Promotes Interpersonal Warmth: Two Failures to Replicate Williams and Bargh (2008)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Chabris ◽  
Patrick Ryan Heck ◽  
Jaclyn Mandart ◽  
Daniel Jacob Benjamin ◽  
Daniel J. Simons
Keyword(s):  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Bayesian Analyses ◽  
Physical Warmth ◽  
Small Sample Sizes ◽  
Interpersonal Warmth

Williams and Bargh (2008) reported that holding a hot cup of coffee caused participants to judge a person’s personality as warmer, and that holding a therapeutic heat pad caused participants to choose rewards for other people rather than for themselves. These experiments featured large effects (r = .28 and .31), small sample sizes (41 and 53 participants), and barely statistically significant results. We attempted to replicate both experiments in field settings with more than triple the sample sizes (128 and 177) and double-blind procedures, but found near-zero effects (r = –.03 and .02). In both cases, Bayesian analyses suggest there is substantially more evidence for the null hypothesis of no effect than for the original physical warmth priming hypothesis.

scholarly journals Non-Invasive Monitoring of Adrenocortical Activity in Three Sympatric Desert Gerbil Species

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Álvaro Navarro-Castilla ◽  
Mario Garrido ◽  
Hadas Hawlena ◽  
Isabel Barja
Keyword(s):  
Small Sample ◽  
Post Injection ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Treatment Groups ◽  
Adrenocortical Activity ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Endocrine Status ◽  
Corticosterone Metabolites ◽  
Small Sample Sizes ◽  
Fecal Corticosterone Metabolites

The study of the endocrine status can be useful to understand wildlife responses to the changing environment. Here, we validated an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) to non-invasively monitor adrenocortical activity by measuring fecal corticosterone metabolites (FCM) in three sympatric gerbil species (Gerbillus andersoni, G. gerbillus and G. pyramidum) from the Northwestern Negev Desert’s sands (Israel). Animals included into treatment groups were injected with adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) to stimulate adrenocortical activity, while control groups received a saline solution. Feces were collected at different intervals and FCM were quantified by an EIA. Basal FCM levels were similar in the three species. The ACTH effect was evidenced, but the time of FCM peak concentrations appearance differed between the species (6–24 h post-injection). Furthermore, FCM peak values were observed sooner in G. andersoni females than in males (6 h and 18 h post-injection, respectively). G. andersoni and G. gerbillus males in control groups also increased FCM levels (18 h and 48 h post-injection, respectively). Despite the small sample sizes, our results confirmed the EIA suitability for analyzing FCM in these species as a reliable indicator of the adrenocortical activity. This study also revealed that close species, and individuals within a species, can respond differently to the same stressor.

scholarly journals Predictors of free-roaming domestic dogs' contact network centrality and their relevance for rabies control

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Warembourg ◽  
Guillaume Fournié ◽  
Mahamat Fayiz Abakar ◽  
Danilo Alvarez ◽  
Monica Berger-González ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Small World ◽  
Domestic Dogs ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Dog Ownership ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Rabies Control ◽  
The Social ◽  
Study Sites

AbstractFree roaming domestic dogs (FRDD) are the main vectors for rabies transmission to humans worldwide. To eradicate rabies from a dog population, current recommendations focus on random vaccination with at least 70% coverage. Studies suggest that targeting high-risk subpopulations could reduce the required vaccination coverage, and increase the likelihood of success of elimination campaigns. The centrality of a dog in a contact network can be used as a measure of its potential contribution to disease transmission. Our objectives were to investigate social networks of FRDD in eleven study sites in Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia and Uganda, and to identify characteristics of dogs, and their owners, associated with their centrality in the networks. In all study sites, networks had small-world properties and right-skewed degree distributions, suggesting that vaccinating highly connected dogs would be more effective than random vaccination. Dogs were more connected in rural than urban settings, and the likelihood of contacts was negatively correlated with the distance between dogs’ households. While heterogeneity in dog's connectedness was observed in all networks, factors predicting centrality and likelihood of contacts varied across networks and countries. We therefore hypothesize that the investigated dog and owner characteristics resulted in different contact patterns depending on the social, cultural and economic context. We suggest to invest into understanding of the sociocultural structures impacting dog ownership and thus driving dog ecology, a requirement to assess the potential of targeted vaccination in dog populations.

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