Demand for Stream Mitigation in Colorado, USA

Colorado, the headwaters for much of the United States, is one of the fastest growing states in terms of both population and land development. These land use changes are impacting jurisdictional streams, and thus require compensatory stream mitigation via environmental restoration. In this article, we first characterize current demand and supply for stream mitigation for the entire state of Colorado. Second, we assess future demand by forecasting and mapping the lengths of streams that will likely be impacted by specific development and land use changes. Third, based on our interviews with experts, stakeholders, resource managers, and regulators, we provide insight on how regulatory climate, challenges, and water resource developments may influence demand for stream mitigation. From geospatial analyses of permit data, we found that there is currently demand for compensatory stream mitigation in 13 of the 89 HUC-8 watersheds across Colorado. Permanent riverine impacts from 2012–2017 requiring compensatory mitigation totaled 38,292 linear feet (LF). The supply of stream mitigation credits falls well short of this demand. There has only been one approved stream mitigation bank in Colorado, supplying only 2539 LF credits. Based on our analyses of future growth and development in Colorado, there will be relatively high demand for stream mitigation credits in the next 5–10 years. While most of these impacts will be around the Denver metropolitan area, we identified some new areas of the state that will experience high demand for stream mitigation. Given regulatory agencies’ stated preference for mitigation banks, the high demand for stream mitigation credits, and the short supply of stream credits, there should be an active market for stream mitigation banks in Colorado. However, there are some key obstacles preventing this market from moving forward, with permanent water rights’ acquisitions at the top of the list. Ensuring stream mitigation compliance is essential for restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of stream systems in Colorado and beyond.

Download Full-text

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE LAND USE IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ECONOMIC APPROACH

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007811000218 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 02 (01) ◽

pp. 27-51 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

DAVID HAIM ◽

RALPH J. ALIG ◽

ANDREW J. PLANTINGA ◽

BRENT SOHNGEN

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Cropland Area ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Net Returns

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land-use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence.

Download Full-text

Land Use Development of Vineyards in Goriška Brda, Slovenia

Notulae Botanicae Horti Agrobotanici Cluj-Napoca ◽

10.15835/nbha45210855 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 45 (2) ◽

pp. 611-622 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alenka FIKFAK ◽

Velibor SPALEVIC ◽

Saja KOSANOVIC ◽

Svetislav G. POPOVIC ◽

Mladen DJUROVIC ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Cultural Landscape ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Land Development ◽

Chemical Properties ◽

Cross Tabulation ◽

The Cross

Land development analyses play a fundamental role in understanding how land use change shapes the land, depending on continuously changing social, economic, and environmental factors that reflect the interests in space. It is especially important to follow land use changes in rural areas due to their role in food security, environmental hazards, cultural landscape preservation, etc. Continuous analyses and monitoring of land use changes allow for the identification and prevention of negative trends in land use (over intensification, land fragmentation, etc.) that might affect biodiversity, change physical and chemical properties of soil, causing soil degradation, change the spatial balance, stability and natural equilibrium in the rural area. The use of the cross-tabulation matrix methodology was suggested for land use change analyses. The methodology, when the cross-tabulation matrix elements are correctly interpreted, allows us to gain as much insight as possible in the process of land use change. This approach enabled a detailed analysis of vineyards in Goriška brda, Slovenia. It was found that the existing methodology fails to analyse the location of change. For this reason, additional analyses of spatial distribution of change and of the locations where changes in space occur were suggested. The study demonstrated that the land use category of vineyards changes systematically, although seemingly randomly. By comparing land use categories over several time periods, the study determined that the size and speed of change varied across different time intervals. The identified land use changes were assessed in the context of their high pressure on agricultural land. The results of the analyses showed different trends shaping the typical agrarian landscape in Goriška brda.

Download Full-text

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

Urban Science ◽

10.3390/urbansci2020040 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 40 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Lahouari Bounoua ◽

Joseph Nigro ◽

Kurtis Thome ◽

Ping Zhang ◽

Najlaa Fathi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Land Use ◽

Los Angeles ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Land Development ◽

Population Data ◽

The United States ◽

Population Increase ◽

Large Cities ◽

Urban Land Management

Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

Download Full-text

How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at National Parks

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-14-26495-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (19) ◽

pp. 26495-26543 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. Val Martin ◽

C. L. Heald ◽

J.-F. Lamarque ◽

S. Tilmes ◽

L. K. Emmons ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Air Quality ◽

National Parks ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Western Us ◽

The Us ◽

Us Epa ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 on the United States with a focus on National Parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emissions reductions. Under the RCP4.5, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US EPA NAAQS of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m−3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10–15 deciviews; >75 km in visibility range), although some parks over the western US (40–74% of total sites in the US) may not reach the 2050 target to restore visibility to natural conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study suggests that air quality in 2050 will be primarily controlled by anthropogenic emission patterns. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2–3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.

Download Full-text

How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (5) ◽

pp. 2805-2823 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

M. Val Martin ◽

C. L. Heald ◽

J.-F. Lamarque ◽

S. Tilmes ◽

L. K. Emmons ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Air Quality ◽

National Parks ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Western Us ◽

The Us ◽

Emission Controls ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. We use a global coupled chemistry–climate–land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus on national parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m−3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10–15 dv; >75 km in visibility range), although some western US parks with Class I status (40–74 % of total sites in the US) are still above the 2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates that anthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2–3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.

Download Full-text

Urban Sprawl in the Mediterranean Urban Regions in Europe and the Crisis Effect on the Urban Land Development: Madrid as Study Case

Urban Studies Research ◽

10.1155/2014/807381 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Jaime Díaz-Pacheco ◽

Juan Carlos García-Palomares

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Large Scale ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

General Pattern ◽

Spatial Dynamics ◽

Land Development ◽

Urban Land ◽

Urban Land Use ◽

Metropolitan Region ◽

New Situation

The middle of 2007 saw the beginning of a worldwide financial crisis that led to a sharp reduction in investment based on construction and urban development. This new situation is generating a new process, characterised by a slowdown that has almost reached a standstill when compared with the frenzied development of previous decades. In order to analyse these processes, this study examines urban land use changes and the urban growth rate and spatial dynamics of the metropolitan region of Madrid. The analysis has been carried out on a large scale between two periods (2000–2006 and 2006–2009) using a regional land use geodatabase. The results show the changes in the urban land use dynamics that took place over these two periods that could characterise the cities of Mediterranean Europe, where contrarily to the general pattern in Europe built-up areas are combining scattered built-up areas with new aggregated compact developments.

Download Full-text

ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-8-263-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 263-300 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

L. Ran ◽

D. H. Loughlin ◽

D. Yang ◽

Z. Adelman ◽

B. H. Baek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Growth Factors ◽

Air Quality ◽

Alternative Energy ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

Pollutant Emissions ◽

County Level ◽

Air Quality Model

Abstract. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census Division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

Download Full-text

Land Use Changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua: A Systems Dynamic Model

ESTUDIOS FRONTERIZOS ◽

10.21670/ref.2007.16.a03 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 8 (16) ◽

pp. 65-89 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Sergio Peña ◽

César M. Fuentes

Keyword(s):

Complex System ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Urban Growth ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Land Development ◽

Simulation Models ◽

Ciudad Juarez ◽

Land Uses ◽

The City

The objective of this article is to offer a model to simulate land use changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. The city faces serious challenges posed by accelerated demographic and urban growth. In its struggle to respond to urban land development pressures, governments, planning agencies and social civil organizations are overwhelmed by a multitude of concerns. The analysis of land use change revolves around two central and interrelated questions: What drives/ causes land use change? What are the environmental and socio-demographic impacts of land change? The land use changes are approached as a complex system in which the elements that define the system and how these relate to each are identified. The development of dynamic simulation models that allow for the generation of different scenarios can be an important tool for urban planning. The software used to simulate the land uses changes is Stella®. The results of the model simulated the demand for land among different land uses (commercial, industrial and residential) in the next 10 or 20 years.

Download Full-text

Pengaruh Perkembangan Kegiatan Perdagangan dan Jasa terhadap Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan di Kawasan Solo Baru

Arsitektura ◽

10.20961/arst.v15i1.11378 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Dina Arifia ◽

Soedwiwahjono Soedwiwahjono ◽

Rizon Pamardhi Utomo

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Land Development ◽

Random Pattern ◽

Residential Areas ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Quantitative Descriptive ◽

The Impact

Solo Baru region has a very strategic location and were originally intended for residential areas, but then experienced a rapid development of economic activities. The development of economic activity is the most visible trade activities and services that continue to increase precisely since 2002. The development of trade and services activities is of course have an influence on land use changes that occur rapidly in Solo Baru region. Based on these issues, the formulation of the problem in this research is how the influence brought about by the development of the activity of trade in services to changes in land use. In line with these problems, this study aims to determine the effect of the development of trading activities and services to changes in land use Solo Baru Region. The method used is quantitative descriptive to determine the level of development to later described spatially. These results indicate that the development of trade and services activities has encouraged the development of other activities either similar activities (commercial) as well as supporting activities (housing, public services, and industry) so the impact on the provision of land. The need for this land that drives the changes in land use, both in terms of area, intensity, and land use patterns are formed. Developments are vertically making it more influential in the development of land compared to the intensity of the land area. Besides land development patterns that are formed are random pattern of development as the region woke formed does not have a specific shape (sporadic) and develop segmental. Keywords: Activities Development, Trade and Services Activity, Land Use Change

Download Full-text