scholarly journals Economic Evaluation of Adaptation Pathways for an Urban Drainage System Experiencing Deep Uncertainty

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 531
Author(s):  
Filip Babovic ◽  
Ana Mijic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Urban Pluvial Flooding

As Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty methodologies are becoming more widely utilised, there has been a growth in the use and generation of Adaptation Pathways. These are meant to convey to policy makers how short-term adaptations can act as elements of longer-term adaptation strategies. However, sets of Adaptation Pathways do not convey the individual pathway’s relative costs and benefits. To address this problem in relation to urban pluvial flooding, an economic analysis of a set of Adaptation Pathways was conducted. Initially, a methodology to conduct an economic assessment for deterministic climate change scenarios is developed. This methodology is then modified, using methods that underpin real options to assess how a pathway performs across a bundle of possible futures. This delivered information on how the performance of adaptations can vary across different climate change scenarios. By comparing the deterministic analysis to the new method, it was found that the order in which options are implemented greatly affects the financial performance of an Adaptation Pathway, even if the final combination of options is identical. The presented methodology has the potential to greatly improve decision making by informing policy makers on the potential performance of adaptation strategies being considered.

scholarly journals Land in Central America will become less suitable for coffee cultivation under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonel Lara-Estrada ◽  
Livia Rasche ◽  
Uwe A. Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Relative Concentration ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Land Evaluation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Coffee Cultivation

AbstractCoffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and continuity of these benefits by reducing the land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify the impacts of climate change on land suitability, we use the Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) and estimate the land suitability for coffee production in 2000, 2050, and 2080 under three climate change scenarios based on relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that even under the less severe climate scenarios, over half of the current coffee area in Central America will experience a decline in its land suitability for coffee production, from excellent or good to moderate and marginal, and that the change will not happen in the more distant future of 2080, but by 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most coffee areas become of marginal and moderate suitability. The findings show that the continuity of coffee cultivation in a large portion of coffee areas in Central America is under threat and that farmers and policy-makers should develop adaptation portfolios for their farms and regions in a timely manner.

Modeling sustainable adaptation strategies toward a climate-smart agriculture in a Mediterranean watershed under projected climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 162 ◽  
pp. 154-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Abdelaziz Hirich ◽  
Rachid Bouabid ◽  
Rashyd Zaaboul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Smart Agriculture

scholarly journals Using building adaptation to deliver sustainability in Australia

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara J. Wilkinson ◽  
Kimberley James ◽  
Richard Reed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Office Building ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Building Adaptation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Decision Making Tool

PurposeThis paper seeks to establish the rationale for existing office building adaptation within Melbourne, Australia, as the city strives to become carbon neutral by 2020. The problems faced by policy makers to determine which buildings have the optimum adaptation potential are to be identified and discussed.Design/methodology/approachThis research adopts the approach of creating a database of all the buildings in the Melbourne CBD including details of physical, social, economic and technological attributes. This approach will determine whether relationships exist between attributes and the frequency of building adaptation or whether triggers to adaptation can be determined.FindingsThis research provided evidence that a much faster rate of office building adaptation is necessary to meet the targets already set for carbon neutrality. The findings demonstrate that a retrospective comprehensive examination of previous adaptation in the CBD is a unique and original approach to determining the building characteristics associated with adaptation and whether triggers can be identified based on previous practices. The implication is that a decision‐making tool should be developed to allow policy makers to target sectors of the office building stock to deliver carbon neutrality within the 2020 timeframe.Practical implicationsDrastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate global warming and climate change and all stakeholders should be looking at ways of reducing emissions from existing stock.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by raising awareness of the way in which the adaptation of large amounts of existing stock can be fast tracked to mitigate the impact of climate change and warming associated with the built environment, and in addition it establishes a framework for a decision‐making tool for policy makers.

scholarly journals Living with climate change: avoiding conflict through adaptation in Malawi

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 2417-2445
Author(s):  
H. Jørstad ◽  
C. Webersik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Security ◽  
Global South ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change and avoid conflict over the loss of resources. The empirical part of the paper answers the question to what extent local communities in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. Further, it assesses one of Malawi's adaptation projects designed to build resilience to a warmer and more variable climate, and points to some of its limitations. This research shows that not all adaptation strategies are suited to cope with a warmer and more variable climate.

scholarly journals Towards supported decision-making: Article 12 of the convention on the rights of persons with disabilities and guardianship law reform

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-43
Author(s):  
Bruce Alston
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Law Reform ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Full Effect ◽  
Guardianship Law ◽  
The Will ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Equal Right

In 2014, a set of National Decision-Making Principles (the Principles) was recommended by theAustralian Law Reform Commission as a legal policy guide for reform of Commonwealth, State and Territory laws. The Principles were aimed to encourage supported decision-making; make the appointment of representatives only a last resort; and to ensure that the will, preferences and rights of individuals direct decisions affecting their lives. This article discusses the sources of the Principles and their relationship to Art 12 of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. The article then examines the steps that are needed to give the Principles full effect in Australian laws to regulate decision-making by individuals who require support. A major focus in implementing a paradigm shift towards supported decision-making is reform of State and Territory guardianship and administration laws. The article examines how guardianship laws should be reformed consistently with the Principles - to ensure that guardianship is invoked only as a last resort and after considering the availability of support to assist people in decision-making. Further, guardianship should be as confined in scope and duration as is reasonably possible; subject to accessible mechanisms for review; and decision-making should respect the will, preferences and rights of the individual. At Commonwealth level, the National Disability Insurance Scheme legislation incorporates some elements of supported decision-making. However, these should also be augmented by providing legal recognition for supporters, and associated safeguards. The author suggests that the Principles can be a catalyst for facilitating important law reform over following decades. The article examines how the Principles may be used by communities, policy-makers and governments to promote world-leading legal changes to ensure that individuals with disability have an equal right to make decisions for themselves.

scholarly journals Imaginary politics: Climate change and making the future

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manjana Milkoreit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Science Fiction ◽  
Motivation For Change ◽  
Green Earth ◽  
Collective Imagination ◽  
Climate Fiction ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Power And Agency

Climate change places major transformational demands on modern societies. Transformations require the capacity to collectively envision and meaningfully debate realistic and desirable futures. Without such a collective imagination capacity and active deliberation processes, societies lack both the motivation for change and guidance for decision-making in a certain direction of change. Recent arguments that science fiction can play a role in societal transformation processes is not yet supported by theory or empirical evidence. Advancing the argument that fiction can support sustainability transformations, this paper makes four contributions. First, building on the imaginary concept, I introduce and define the idea of socio-climatic imaginaries. Second, I develop a theory of imagination as linked cognitive-social processes that enable the creation of collectively shared visions of future states of the world. This theory addresses the dynamics that bridge imagination processes in the individual mind and collective imagining that informs social and political decision-making. Third, emphasizing the political nature of creating and contesting imaginaries in a society, I introduce the role of power and agency in this theory of collective imagination. I argue that both ideational and structural power concepts are relevant for understanding the potential societal influence of climate fiction. Finally, the paper illuminates these different forms of transformational power and agency with two brief case studies: two climate fiction novels. I contrast a dystopian and utopian science fiction novel – Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Water Knife (2015) and Kim Stanley Robinson’s Green Earth (2015). The two books are very similar in their power/agency profile, but the comparison provides initial insights into the different roles of optimistic and pessimistic future visions.

scholarly journals Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 801-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-S. Yang ◽  
E.-S. Chung ◽  
S.-U. Kim ◽  
T.-W. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Cost Component ◽  
Hydrological Simulation

Abstract. This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives for watershed management caused by climate change and urbanization and prioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) were obtained by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the urbanization scenario by surveying the existing urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days required to satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BOD concentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized by using multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework and cost component. Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted to reduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the most sensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, driving force, impact, state and pressure in that order. As it is certain that the importance of cost component is over 0.127, construction of a small wastewater treatment plant will be the most preferred alternative in this application.

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