scholarly journals Land in Central America will become less suitable for coffee cultivation under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonel Lara-Estrada ◽  
Livia Rasche ◽  
Uwe A. Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Relative Concentration ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Land Evaluation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Coffee Cultivation

AbstractCoffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and continuity of these benefits by reducing the land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify the impacts of climate change on land suitability, we use the Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) and estimate the land suitability for coffee production in 2000, 2050, and 2080 under three climate change scenarios based on relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that even under the less severe climate scenarios, over half of the current coffee area in Central America will experience a decline in its land suitability for coffee production, from excellent or good to moderate and marginal, and that the change will not happen in the more distant future of 2080, but by 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most coffee areas become of marginal and moderate suitability. The findings show that the continuity of coffee cultivation in a large portion of coffee areas in Central America is under threat and that farmers and policy-makers should develop adaptation portfolios for their farms and regions in a timely manner.

Modeling the current land suitability and future dynamics of global soybean cultivation under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 108069
Author(s):  
Lu Feng ◽  
Hongyan Wang ◽  
Xiaowei Ma ◽  
Hongbo Peng ◽  
Jianrong Shan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Development of downscaled Climate Change Scenarios for Central America. Lessons learned and next steps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Tamayo ◽  
Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino ◽  
Sara Covaleda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Hydrological Services ◽  
Different Sources

<p>The intersectoral workshop held in December 2016 among the Ibero-American networks on water (CODIA), climate change (RIOCC) and meteorology (CIMHET) identified the need to dispose of downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America. Such scenarios would be developed by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in the region, based on a common methodology, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and extreme hydro-meteorological events.</p><p>One final outcome of the project has been a freely accessible web viewer, installed on the Centro Clima webpage (https://centroclima.org/escenarios-cambio-climatico/), managed by CRRH-SICA, where all information generated during the project is available for consultation and data downloading by the different sectors of users.</p><p>A key element in this project has been to integrate many downscaled projections based on different methods (dynamical and statistical), totalizing 45 different projections, and aiming at estimating the uncertainty coming from different sources in the best possible way.</p><p>Another essential element has been the strong involvement of the different user sectors through national workshops, first, at the beginning of the project for the identification and definition of viewer features the project, and then for the presentation of results and planning of its use by prioritized sectors.</p><p>In a second phase of the project, a regional working group made up of experts from the NMHSs will be in charge of viewer maintenance and upgrade, including new sectoral parameters, developed in collaboration with interested users, and computation and addition of new downscaled projections from CMIP 6 in collaboration with AEMET.</p><p>Finally, following the request of CIMHET, the possibility of replicating this project for other areas of Ibero-America is being evaluated.</p>

Differentiated Responsibilities On Population Explosion And Its Impact On Environment – A Corridor For The Crossing?

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-115
Author(s):  
P.P. Sajimon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Population And Environment

Climate change and disasters are fast emerging as the most significant challenges of the 21st century as global risks with impacts far beyond just the environment and implications on national security and development. As the world continues its contemporary patterns of production and consumption, the future is at immense risk. Climate Change has the potential to alter the ability of the earth’s physical and biological systems to provide goods and services essential for sustainable development. Today, a number of mainstream population and environment groups are claiming that population growth is a major cause of climate change and that lesser birth rates are the solution. If we cannot stabilize population, there is not an ecosystem on earth that we can save. If developing countries cannot stabilize their populations almost immediately, many of them face the disintegration of ecosystem. But in reality, even if we could today achieve zero population growth that would barely touch the climate problem — where we need to cut emissions by 50 to 80 percent by mid-century. Given existing income inequalities, it is inescapable that over consumption by the rich few is the key problem, rather than overpopulation of the poor many. In the absence of any commitment in the next two decades, their economies would become locked into a trajectory of elevated emissions and unsustainable development, while the cost of reversing the trend will become prohibitively high. This paper examines several outstanding issues on the interface between population and environment. Significantly, the study would come out with some policy recommendations to the policy makers.

scholarly journals Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. e0193570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Imbach ◽  
Sin Chan Chou ◽  
André Lyra ◽  
Daniela Rodrigues ◽  
Daniel Rodriguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Land Suitability for Jatropha Cultivation

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3777-3782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Feng Zhao ◽  
Bin Le Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The West ◽  
The North ◽  
North And South ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

We evaluated land suitability for Jatropha cultivation at a global scale under current and future climate scenarios. Areas that are suitable for Jatropha cultivation include southern South America, the west and southeast coasts of Africa, the north of South Asia, and the north and south coasts of Australia. In the predicted climate change scenarios, areas near the equator become less suitable for Jatropha cultivation, and areas further from the equator become more suitable. Our analyses suggest that the rank order of the six climate change scenarios, from the smallest to the largest effects on Jatropha cultivation, was as follows: B1, A1T/B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI.

scholarly journals Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

2010 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Primary Industry ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Sources And Sinks ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Adaptation Action ◽  
Industry Professionals ◽  
Adaptation Options

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change is a fundamental resource for primary industry professionals, land managers, policy makers, researchers and students involved in preparing Australia’s primary industries for the challenges and opportunities of climate change. More than 30 authors have contributed to this book, which moves beyond describing the causes and consequences of climate change to providing options for people to work towards adaptation action. Climate change implications and adaptation options are given for the key Australian primary industries of horticulture, forestry, grains, rice, sugarcane, cotton, viticulture, broadacre grazing, intensive livestock industries, marine fisheries, and aquaculture and water resources. Case studies demonstrate the options for each industry. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change summarises updated climate change scenarios for Australia with the latest climate science. It includes chapters on socio-economic and institutional considerations for adapting to climate change, greenhouse gas emissions sources and sinks, as well as risks and priorities for the future.

scholarly journals Application of LARS - WG downscaling model for building climate change scenarios in the Srepok watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-122
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Nhung Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Canh Thanh Truong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

There are statistical downscaling methods such as: SDSM, LARS-WG, WGEN…, used to convert information on climate variables from the simulation results of General Circulation Model (GCM) to build climate change scenarios for local region. In this study, we used the LARS-WG model and HadCM3 GCM for two emission scenarios: B1 (low emission scenario) and A1B (medium emission scenario) to generate future scenarios for temperature and precipitation at meteorological stations and rain gauges in the Srepok watershed. The LARS-WG model was calibrated and validated against observed climate data for the period 1980-2009, and the calibrated LARS-WG was then used to generate future climate variables for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). The climate change scenarios suggested that the climate in the study area will become warmer and drier in the future. The results obtained in this study could be useful for policy makers in planning climate change adaptation strategies for the study area.

scholarly journals Strategi Peningkatan Produktivitas Kopi serta Adaptasi terhadap Variabilitas dan Perubahan Iklim melalui Kalender Budidaya

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Yeli Sarvina ◽  
Tania June ◽  
Elza Surmaini ◽  
Rita Nurmalina ◽  
Sutjahjo Surjono Hadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Potential Strategy ◽  
Coffee Cultivation ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstrak</strong>. Rendahnya produktivitas kopi merupakan salah satu permasalahan utama dalam sistem produksi kopi Indonesia. Hal ini diantaranya disebabkan tidak adanya perawatan kopi yang optimal dengan memperhatikan fase fenologi kopi, serta dampak variabilitas dan perubahan iklim. Berbagai teknologi adaptasi kopi sudah banyak dihasilkan namun langkah adaptasi dengan memanfaatkan prakiraan iklim dalam bentuk penyesuian kegiatan budidaya dengan fase fenologi atau disebut sebagai kalender budidaya belum dikembangkan. Tulisan ini memaparkan tentang dampak variabilitas dan perubahan iklim pada tanaman kopi, teknologi adaptasi kopi yang sudah tersedia, perlunya pengembangan kalender budidaya kopi sebagai bentuk strategi adaptasi dan peningkatan produktivitas serta potensi dan tantangan pengembangan kalender budidaya kopi di Indonesia. Hasil review ini menunjukkan kalender budidaya kopi berpotensi dikembangkan sebagai strategi peningkatan produktivitas serta adaptasi terhadap variabilitas dan perubahan iklim.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Abstract</strong>. Low productivity is one of the main challenges in Indonesia's coffee production system .It is low due to cultivation management; most of the coffee farmer does not manage their plantation base on the coffee phenology phase.  Moreover climate variability and change also have important effect on coffee productivity. Various technologies on adaptation and measurement to climate change and variability have been identified. Unfortunately, the technology which use climate forecast through adjusting cultivation activity and coffee phenology called as cultivation calendar do not exist yet. This paper provides an overview on the impact of climate variability and change to coffee production, the existing adaptation strategy, and the importance of cultivation calendar as a strategy for adapting and increasing productivity, and the potential and challenges to develop cultivation calendar in Indonesia. This review reveals that coffee cultivation calendar is a potential strategy for increaseing productivity and adapting climate change and variability.</p>

The experience of Iberoamerican Meteorological Cooperation in the improvement of the provision of Weather and Climate Services

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Tamayo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Database Management System ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Unique Framework ◽  
Hydrological Services

&lt;p&gt;The cooperation between Iberoamerican National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) it is coordinated through the Conference of Directors of Iberoamerican NMHS (CIMHET), who takes advantage of the unique framework that provides the cultural and idiomatic heritage in the region. It is constituted by all 21 NMHSs of Iberoamerica, including Spain and Portugal. CIMHET provides a forum for dialogue between Iberoamerican NMHSs, recognized by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as an example of cooperation and operability.&lt;br&gt;The Conference approves, at its annual meetings from 2003, an action plan over three strategic lines: Institutional strengthening and resource mobilization; provision of meteorological, climatic and hydrological services; education and training&lt;br&gt;Among the activities carried out in the latest action plans related to a better provision of Weather and Climate Services (WCS) includes the support for the creation and operation of Virtual Regional Centers for the Prevention of Severe Events, the development of a free database management system, namely MCH, which has been donated to WMO for distribution among interested NMHS, the implementation of a regional lightning detection network in Central America, or the development of downscaling climate change scenarios for Central America, with access to information and view via web.&lt;br&gt;In order to carry out the proper provision of WCS, it is also necessary to have sufficient and properly trained NMHS staff. Therefore, this activity, both for technical and management personnel, has been one of the fundamental elements in the activities carried out by CIMHET, with more than 60 courses and workshops from 2004, most of which have been face-to-face, attended by more than 1500 students.&lt;br&gt;It is also important to have the appropriate infrastructure and human resources so that NMHS can provide their services to society in a reliable and timely manner. For this, several modernization projects have been developed, mainly considering the needs of the different user sectors and showing their potential of NMHS for the different national social and economic sectors in case of solving their shortcomings.&lt;br&gt;Finally, intersectoral coordination mechanisms have been established with other Iberomerican networks with common interests, such as the Iberoamerican Network of Climate Change Offices (RIOCC) and the Conference of Iberoamerican Directors of Water (CODIA). A number of priority activities related to climate change adaptation issues linked to extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have been identified and started its development.&lt;/p&gt;

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