scholarly journals Assessment of Flood Risk Map under Climate Change RCP8.5 Scenarios in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 207
Author(s):  
Yun-Ju Chen ◽  
Hsuan-Ju Lin ◽  
Jun-Jih Liou ◽  
Chao-Tzuen Cheng ◽  
Yung-Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Flood Risk Map

Climate change has exerted a significant global impact in recent years, and extreme weather-related hazards and incidents have become the new normal. For Taiwan in particular, the corresponding increase in disaster risk threatens not only the environment but also the lives, safety, and property of people. This highlights the need to develop a methodology for mapping disaster risk under climate change and delineating those regions that are potentially high-risk areas requiring adaptation to a changing climate in the future. This study provides a framework of flood risk map assessment under the RCP8.5 scenario by using different spatial scales to integrate the projection climate data of high resolution, inundation potential maps, and indicator-based approach at the end of the 21st century in Taiwan. The reference period was 1979–2003, and the future projection period was 2075–2099. High-resolution climate data developed by dynamic downscaling of the MRI-JMA-AGCM model was used to assess extreme rainfall events. The flood risk maps were constructed using two different spatial scales: the township level and the 5 km × 5 km grid. As to hazard-vulnerability(H-V) maps, users can overlay maps of their choice—such as those for land use distribution, district planning, agricultural crop distribution, or industrial distribution. Mapping flood risk under climate change can support better informed decision-making and policy-making processes in planning and preparing to intervene and control flood risks. The elderly population distribution is applied as an exposure indicator in order to guide advance preparation of evacuation plans for high-risk areas. This study found that higher risk areas are distributed mainly in northern and southern parts of Taiwan and the hazard indicators significantly increase in the northern, north-eastern, and southern regions under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the near-riparian and coastal townships of central and southern Taiwan have higher vulnerability levels. Approximately 14% of townships have a higher risk level of flooding disaster and another 3% of townships will become higher risk. For higher-risk townships, adaptation measures or strategies are suggested to prioritize improving flood preparation and protecting people and property. Such a flood risk map can be a communication tool to effectively inform decision- makers, citizens, and stakeholders about the variability of flood risk under climate change. Such maps enable decision-makers and national spatial planners to compare the relative flood risk of individual townships countrywide in order to determine and prioritize risk adaptation areas for planning spatial development policies.

scholarly journals Assessing the Governance Context Support for Creating a Pluvial Flood Risk Map with Climate Change Scenarios: The Flemish Subnational Case

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar Casiano Flores ◽  
Joep Crompvoets
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Steering Committee ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
Flood Risk Map ◽  
Subnational Governments

Climate change has increased pluvial flood risks in cities around the world. To mitigate floods, pluvial risk maps with climate change scenarios have been developed to help major urban areas adapt to a changing climate. In some cases, subnational governments have played a key role to develop these maps. However, governance research about the role of subnational governments in geospatial data development in urban water transitions has received little attention. To address this gap, this research applies the Governance Assessment Tool as an evaluative framework to increase our understanding of the governance factors that support the development of pluvial flood risk maps at the subnational level. For this research, we selected the region of Flanders in Belgium. This region is considered among the frontrunners when it comes to the creation of a pluvial flood risk map with climate change scenarios. Data have been collected through in-depth interviews with steering committee actors involved in the development process of the map. The research identified that the current governance context is supportive of the creation of the flood risk map. The government of Flanders plays a key role in this process. The most supportive qualities of the governance context are those related to the degree of fragmentation (extent and coherence), while the less supportive ones are those related to the “quest for control” (flexibility and intensity). Under this governance context, government actors play the primary role. The Flemish government led the maps’ creation process and it was supported by the lower governmental levels. As the provincial government was an important actor to increase local participation, collaboration with private and non-governmental actors in the steering committee was more limited. The financial resources were also limited and the process required a continuous development of trust. Yet, the Flemish Environmental Agency, with the use of technology, was able to increase such trust during the process.

Impacts of Climate Change and Remote Natural Catastrophes on EU Flood Insurance Markets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Tesselaar ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Flood Insurance ◽  
Insurance Premiums ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reinsurance Market ◽  
The Eu

<p>Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, due to increasing risk in many areas, premiums are likely to rise, which may cause insurance to become unaffordable for low-income households. This issue can become especially prominent in high-risk areas, when premiums are risk-reflective. Consequently, increasing premiums can reduce the demand for insurance coverage when this is optional, as individuals often underestimate the flood risk they face. After a flood, uninsured households then have to rely on private savings or ex-post government disaster relief. This situation is suboptimal as households may not save sufficiently to cover the damage, and government compensation can be uncertain. Using a modeling approach we simulate unaffordability and uptake of various forms of flood insurance systems in EU countries. To do this, we build upon and advance the “Dynamic Integrated Flood Insurance” (DIFI) model, which integrates flood risk simulations, with an insurance sector and a consumer behavior model. We compute the results using various climatic- and socio-economic scenarios in order to assess the impact of climate- and socio-economic change for flood insurance in the EU. Furthermore, we assess the impact of remote natural disasters on flood insurance premiums in EU countries, which occurs through the global reinsurance market. More specifically, after large natural disasters or compound events occurring outside the EU, which are likely to occur more often due to climate change, reinsurance premiums can temporarily rise as a result of a global “hard” capital market for reinsurers. The higher cost of capital for reinsurers is then transferred to households in the EU through higher flood insurance premiums. We find that rising average, and higher variance, of flood risk towards the end of the century can increase flood insurance premiums, and cause higher premium volatility resulting from global reinsurance market conditions. The rise in premiums increases unaffordability of insurance coverage and results in declining demand for flood insurance. A proposed policy improvement is to introduce a public reinsurance system for flood risk, as governments can often provide cheaper reinsurance coverage and are less subject to volatility on capital markets. Besides this, we recommend a limited degree of premium cross-subsidization to limit the growth of premiums in high-risk areas, and insurance purchase requirements to increase the level of financial protection against flooding.  </p>

scholarly journals Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategies for Soybean Production Systems on the Flood-Prone Pampas under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1187
Author(s):  
Wouter Julius Smolenaars ◽  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Saskia Werners ◽  
Fulco Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Sowing Season

In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses.

scholarly journals The contribution of remote sensing in hydraulics and hydrology, analysis and evaluation of digital terrain model for flood risk mapping

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-26
Author(s):  
Faiza hassainia Bouzahar ◽  
Lahbaci Ouerdachi ◽  
Mahdi Keblouti ◽  
Akram Seddiki
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Digital Terrain Model ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
Terrain Model ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Wetland Biodiversity ◽  
Adopted Model ◽  
Flood Risk Map

AbstractThe study of flood risk involves the knowledge of the spatial variability in the characteristics of the vegetation cover, terrain, climate and changes induced by the intervention of humans in watersheds. The increased needs of the actors in land management mean that static maps no longer meet the requirements of scientists and decision-makers. Access is needed to the data, methods and tools to produce complex maps in response to the different stages of risk evaluation and response. The availability of very high spatial resolution remote sensing data (VHSR) and digital terrain model (DTM) make it possible to detect objects close to human size and, therefore, is of interest for studying anthropogenic activities. The development of new methods and knowledge using detailed spatial data, coupled with the use of GIS, naturally becomes beneficial to the risks analysis. Indeed, the extraction of information from specific processes, such as vegetation indices, can be used as variables such as water heights, flow velocities, flow rates and submersion to predict the potential consequences of a flood. The functionalities of GIS for cartographic overlay and multi-criteria spatial analysis make it possible to identify the flood zones according to the level of risk from the flood, thus making it a useful decision-making tool.This study was carried out on the territory of watersheds in the Annaba region, East of Algeria. The choice was guided by the availability of data (satellites images, maps, hydrology, etc.) and hydrological specificities (proximity to an urban area). The adopted model is divided into two parts. The first part is to establish a methodology for the preservation of wetland biodiversity and the protection of urban areas against floods. Thanks to the multi-criteria spatial analysis and the functionalities of the GIS, we established a flood risk map for the watershed defined above. The result was satisfactory compared with the field reality. The second part of the model consisted of the integration of cadastral information with the flood risk map obtained in the first part of our research.The primary objective of this mapping is to contribute to the development of flood risk management plans (in the sense of risk reduction). The mapping stage also provides quantitative elements to more accurately assess the vulnerability of a territory.

Thermal Assessment Tool: A climate service to visualize trends of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blas Lajarín ◽  
Nieves Peña ◽  
Jorge Paz ◽  
Edward P. Morris ◽  
Greta C. Vega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts

<p>The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.</p><p>Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.</p><p>For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.</p><p>The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.</p><p>Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Española de Cambio Climático.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document