scholarly journals Production Forecast of China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicles in 2021–2023 under the Compliance of Dual-Credit Policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Li Lv ◽  
Xi Li
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Dual Credit ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Production Forecast ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Vehicle Test ◽  
Production Requirement ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

The corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy (2021–2023) was officially released in June 2020. As a mandatory regulation for automobile manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles, its impact on the output of new energy vehicles needs to be systematically evaluated. In this study, we build an enterprise policy compliance model to simulate the dual-credit policy requirements for the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 under different scenarios. The results show that the production of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023 is required to reach 1.78 to 3.97 million under different scenarios. Three factors, i.e., switching from New Europe Driving Cycle (NEDC) to World Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) fuel consumption improvement of conventional vehicles, and credit per new energy vehicle, have a more significant impact on the new energy vehicle production than others. Under the minimum guarantee scenario, a 10% change in the above three factors will lead to a 2.5%, 1.5%, and 0.5% reduction in the production requirement for new energy vehicles.

scholarly journals Effect of Chinese Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-Credit Regulation on Passenger Cars Average Fuel Consumption Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7218
Author(s):  
Haoyi Zhang ◽  
Fuquan Zhao ◽  
Han Hao ◽  
Zongwei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Dual Credit ◽  
Relaxation Effect ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
Vehicle Market ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

The large sales volume and a great number of passenger car ownership in China have brought a series of environmental and energy problems. In response to these problems, Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-credit Regulation has been put forward in China. However, it is found that although the purpose of the Dual-credit Regulation is controlling the fuel consumption and promoting the development of the energy vehicle market, the fuel consumption restriction for fossil-fueled passenger cars is relaxed compared to CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) regulation alone. Moreover, this effect of relaxation is more obvious when the market share of new energy vehicles increases. To quantitatively estimate the relaxation effect of the fuel consumption restriction, a method of quantifying the relaxation effect is designed, and three different scenarios of new energy vehicle market development have been presumed in this paper. It is found that there are three main factors related to new energy vehicles that cause the relaxation of fuel consumption restriction, and the effect might become obvious and severe after 2025 if the market share of new energy vehicles develops very rapidly. These results may affect the development of the automotive industry and needed to be concerned.

scholarly journals Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin He ◽  
Shiqi Ou ◽  
Yu Gan ◽  
Zifeng Lu ◽  
Steven Victor Przesmitzki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Dual Credit ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Passenger Vehicle ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Vehicle Fleet ◽  
New Energy Vehicle

Abstract For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

Optimizing production of new energy vehicles with across-chain cooperation under China’s dual credit policy

Energy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 194 ◽  
pp. 116832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jizi Li ◽  
Yaoyao Ku ◽  
Yue Yu ◽  
Chunling Liu ◽  
Yuping Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Dual Credit ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

scholarly journals Hierarchical Optimization Decision-Making Method to Comply with China’s Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7842
Author(s):  
Kangda Chen ◽  
Fuquan Zhao ◽  
Han Hao ◽  
Zongwei Liu ◽  
Xinglong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Hybrid Electric Vehicles ◽  
Dual Credit ◽  
Hierarchical Optimization ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Hybrid Electric ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
Mild Hybrid

The national targets of reaching carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 propose higher requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction of China’s automobile industry. As an important measure for the government, the fuel consumption and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy system has a significant impact on the Chinese and even the global vehicle market. Considering the lack of a systematic evaluation model for China’s fuel consumption and NEV credit regulations, this study establishes a hierarchical optimization decision-making model based on technology frontier curves and a multi-dimension database containing extensive data of technologies, products, and enterprises in the Chinese market to simulate and evaluate the technology compliance and policy impact under multiple regulations. The results show that, from the perspective of the technology frontier curve, gasoline technologies still have great cost-effectiveness advantages when the fuel-saving requirement is less than 46%, and the space for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REVs) is gradually shrinking due to the cost reduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). BEV400 will be better than PHEV70 and REV100 when the fuel-saving requirement is higher than 79%. Diesel vehicles are always not competitive in the passenger car market. In terms of the compliance of corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) regulation, the start-stop technology will be gradually phased out and mild hybrid electric vehicles will be rapidly introduced due to their high cost-effectiveness in 2025. With the tightening of regulations, the penetration rate of BEVs and PHEVs will be 23.7% and 6.7%, respectively, and mild hybrid electric vehicles will be gradually replaced by strong hybrid electric vehicles in 2030. By 2035, the penetration rate of BEVs and PHEVs will be 43.6% and 6% further. For the CAFC and NEV credit regulation (widely known as the dual credit regulation), the single-vehicle credit poses a greater impact on the penetration of NEVs than corporate credit percentage limitation and is the key factor that should be focused on. The NEV credit limitation in the dual credit regulation could push ‘poor performance’ automakers to produce the required number of NEVs and meet the bottom line. However, in the long term, when compared to the CAFC regulation, the dual credit regulation is more lenient, due to NEVs being able to get double benefits both on NEV credit and CAFC credit, and NEV credit can also unidirectionally compensate CAFC credit under the dual-credit policy context. With the increased penetration and cost reduction of NEVs, the ‘averaging’ effect of dual credit regulation will inhibit the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Therefore, eliminating the connection between NEV credit and CAFC credit or only leaving the CAFC and the fuel consumption limit regulations in the future will be better for the long-term development of the energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry.

scholarly journals Effects of Dual Credit Policy and Consumer Preferences on Production Decisions in Automobile Supply Chain

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5821
Author(s):  
Liangui Peng ◽  
Ying Li ◽  
Hui Yu
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Dual Credit ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Production Decisions ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Decision Mode ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

New energy vehicles have a significant advantage in energy saving and environmental pollution reduction in the transportation industry; however, they are still at a disadvantage in the market competition. The Chinese government has introduced lots of policy measures to promote the mass adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs), specifically the dual credit policy. Moreover, consumer’s preferences are vital factors in their purchase decision making. This study focuses on the production decisions of automobile manufacturers under the decentralized and centralized supply chain, considering the factors of both consumer preferences and dual credit policy. First, under the centralized decision mode, higher demand drives the manufacturer to expand production; however, retailers’ profits are harmed. With the increase in consumers’ environmental preference and cognition of endurance ability, market pricing and demand increase under the decentralized decision mode. The cross effects of preferences bring more profits for manufacturers and retailers. Second, the difference in prices and profits widens, under the two decision modes, as increases in consumer preferences’ value. When consumers have higher environmental preferences, manufacturers and retailers should increase the new energy vehicle pricing. Otherwise, they should decrease pricing to increase the market penetration ratio. In addition, the impacts of one preference on the profit difference are related to the other preference.

The Application of UX Research in New Energy Vehicle Innovation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghan TAO ◽  
Ning XIAO ◽  
Xingfu ZHAO ◽  
Wenbin LIU
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
The Other ◽  
Innovative Product ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
The One ◽  
New Energy Vehicles ◽  
Degree Of Innovation

New energy vehicles(NEV) as a new thing for sustainable development, in China, on the one hand has faced the rapid expansion of the market; the other hand, for the new NEV users, the current NEVs cannot keep up with the degree of innovation. This paper demonstrates the reasons for the existence of this systematic challenge, and puts forward the method of UX research which is different from the traditional petrol vehicles research in the early stage of development, which studies from the user's essence level, to form the innovative product programs which meet the needs of users and being real attractive.

scholarly journals The impact of the reduction of consumption subsidies on the industrial chain of new energy vehicles

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 01002
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Mao
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Government ◽  
Industry Chain ◽  
Industrial Chain ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
D Investment ◽  
Vehicle Market ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

In recent years, in order to promote the independent development of the new energy vehicle industry, Chinese government has decided to reduce the consumption subsidies for new energy vehicles until the subsidies are completely withdrawn. The reduction of consumption subsidy has a great impact on the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the whole vehicle market. However, does the reduction of this subsidy also have an impact on other enterprises in the new energy vehicles industry chain? This paper tests this problem using data from 2016 to 2018, and finds, through empirical analysis, that during the period of subsidy decline, the profitability of component enterprises is significantly positively correlated with this subsidies, while the r&d investment of enterprises is significantly negatively correlated with this subsidies. The results show that in terms of profitability, the reduction of consumer subsidies not only has an impact on the whole vehicle industry of new energy vehicles, but also has an adverse impact on the core component companies in the industrial chain. However, in terms of r&d, the reduction of subsidies has more negatively strengthened the input and attention of R&D in component companies.

The Analysis of the Current Situation and Countermeasures of New Energy Vehicles

2014 ◽  
Vol 686 ◽  
pp. 639-642
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Ming Yuan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Management Mechanism ◽  
Pollution Problem ◽  
The Social ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Environmental Pollution Problem ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
Battery Technology ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

With pm2.5 and environmental pollution problem of urban smog, energy conservation and environmental protection has become an important subject in the current car development, so the new energy vehicles get more and more favor from the government and enterprises. But the new energy vehicles’ market share in our country is still small and the technology is not mature. This paper summarizes the experience and lessons in the development of new energy vehicles at home and abroad, and then based on which analyses the reasons that restrict the development of the new energy vehicles, finally puts forward the countermeasures of new energy vehicles development from the government's macro policy, battery technology, management mechanism, public participation and so on. In addition, it also puts forward a new opinion that encourages and guides the social capital to participate in the operation of the new energy vehicle infrastructure construction and operation, then provides a model for our country’s new energy vehicles future development.

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