scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of Carphoborus minimus (Fabricius, 1798) in Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-148
Author(s):  
Ismail Şen ◽  
Oğuzhan Sarikaya ◽  
Ömer Kamil Örücü
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Change Model ◽  
Result State ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Quarter Model ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Climate Change Model ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Our study aims to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) distribution areas of Carphoborus minimus (Fabricius, 1798) according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios. Current and future potential distribution areas of the species were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method and the MIROC6 climate change model. Finally, change analysis was performed to reveal the distributional changes between the present and future distribution ranges of the species. Our study has made it clear that the most impactful bioclimatic factors on the distribution of the species are temperature seasonality, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest quarter. Model results showed that the suitable distribution range for C. minimus is western and southern Anatolia. Models presented that the species will expand its distribution area through northern Anatolia in the 2050s and 2090s due to the changing ecological environment. In addition to that, the results of the change analysis showed that suitable distribution areas for the species will increase between 7% and 13.5% with time. Therefore, the species can become a new threat to the forests of Northern Anatolia. As a result, state forestry authorities should take precautions against this bark beetle species in the pine stands of northern Turkey in the future. Moreover, land-use plans should be developed to prevent the degradation of forest areas and to plan suitable trees for afforestation.

scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2671 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Oğuz Çoban ◽  
Ömer K. Örücü ◽  
E. Seda Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

scholarly journals Potential distribution of the endangered endemic lizard Liolaemus lutzae Mertens, 1938 (Liolaemidae): are there other suitable areas for a geographically restricted species?

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 338-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
GR. Winck ◽  
P. Almeida-Santos ◽  
CFD. Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Diurnal Temperature Range ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Sand Dune ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Environmental Matrices ◽  
High Loss ◽  
Original Distribution ◽  
High Loss Rate

In this study we attempted to access further information on the geographical distribution of the endangered lizard Liolaemus lutzae, estimating its potential distribution through the maximum entropy algorithm. For this purpose, we related its points of occurrence with matrices of environmental variables. After examining the correlation between environmental matrices, we selected 10 for model construction. The main variables influencing the current geographic distribution of L. lutzae were the diurnal temperature range and altitude. The species endemism seemed to be a consequence of a reduction of the original distribution area. Alternatively, the resulting model may reflect the geographic distribution of an ancestral lineage, since the model selected areas of occurrence of the two other species of Liolaemus from Brazil (L. arambarensis and L. occipitalis), all living in sand dune habitats and having psamophilic habits. Due to the high loss rate of habitat occupied by the species, the conservation and recovery of the remaining areas affected by human actions is essential.

scholarly journals Influence of Cesaro summation and the Fejer Kernel onto the climate change model

2018 ◽  
Vol Volume-2 (Issue-3) ◽  
pp. 2466-2471
Author(s):  
Rajendra Bapurao Vhatkar ◽  
Dr. Vishwajeet S. Goswami ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Change Model ◽  
Fejér Kernel ◽  
Climate Change Model

Predicting the potential distribution ofVexillata(Nematoda: Ornithostrongylidae) and its hosts (Mammalia: Rodentia) within America

2012 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 400-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.A. Martínez-Salazar ◽  
T. Escalante ◽  
M. Linaje ◽  
J. Falcón-Ordaz
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factor ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Host Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Distributional Patterns ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Temperature Seasonality ◽  
Host Parasite

AbstractSpecies distribution modelling has been a powerful tool to explore the potential distribution of parasites in wildlife, being the basis of studies on biogeography.Vexillataspp. are intestinal nematodes found in several species of mammalian hosts, such as rodents (Geomyoidea) and hares (Leporidae) in the Nearctic and northern Neotropical regions. In the present study, we modelled the potential distribution ofVexillataspp. and their hosts, using exclusively species from the Geomyidae and Heteromyidae families, in order to identify their distributional patterns. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were used to identify and predict suitable habitats forVexillataand its hosts. Using these models, we identified that temperature seasonality is a significant environmental factor that influences the distribution of the parasite genus and its host. In particular, the geographical distribution is estimated to be larger than that predicted for its hosts. This suggests that the nematode has the potential to extend its geographical range and also its spectrum of host species. Increasing sample size and geographical coverage will contribute to recommendations for conservation of this host–parasite system.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Xiaotao Huang ◽  
Li Ma ◽  
Chunbo Chen ◽  
Huakun Zhou ◽  
Buqing Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
River Region ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km2, accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from −5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041–2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km2) > RCP45 (6017 km2) > RCP80 (4238 km2) > RCP60 (2505 km2). In future (2061–2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km2) > RCP60 (11,977 km2) > RCP45 (10,354 km2) > RCP80 (7539 km2). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.

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