scholarly journals The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility on Stock Returns Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-58
Author(s):  
ARIF HUSSAIN ◽  
AHMAD BILAL HUSSAIN ◽  
SHAHID ALI
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

Apprehension pertaining to Stock return volatility always has been producing the appreciable significance in the various current research works and it has been lucrative to many researchers for forecasting stock market volatility. This study is about the forecasting of stock returns volatility on the basis of interest rate volatility in the well established Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The stock returns are calculated on the basis of KSE 100 index and interest rate volatility is calculated on the basis of monthly treasury bills rate during a period of 1994 to 2016. Various volatility models like Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) were used to predict stock return volatility on the basis of interest rate volatility in Pakistan. ARCH model is one of the well known methods to forecast the error term in the data and which will certain our forecast regarding stock prices. In the Pakistan Stock Exchange the ARCH (1, 1) has been statistically significantly proved. The GARCH (1, 1) model is also used to estimate the stock volatility. This model shows the short run volatility affect the lagged stock returns and is contributing to the overall volatility. The sum of α and β is less than 1 so the short run volatility is positively related to the overall stock volatility. The GARCH (1, 1) model has outperformed the other volatility models in the case of Pakistan Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Return On Assets, Return On Equity, Debt To Equity Ratio, Inflasi, Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Return Saham Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan Secondary Sectors Periode 2010-2015)

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 063-076
Author(s):  
Ningsih Hikmawati ◽  
Adi Wiratno ◽  
Suyanto . ◽  
Darmansyah .
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Equity Ratio

This study is aimed to ascertain and analyse the influence of return on assets, return on equity, debt to equit ratio, inflation, and interest rate, both partiall and simultaneously on the stock returns in manufacturing companies of secondary sectors listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. This research uses quantitative methods and EVIEWS panel 8 to analyse the regression. The population are manufacturing companies of secondary sector listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange consisted of basic and chemical sectors, miscellaneous industry, and consumer goods sector in the period of 2010-2015. The sampling method used is pusposive sampling with the final number of 40 companies. The research required secondary data. The results show that return on assets has no negative effect on stock return, mean while, return on equity and interest rate have positive effect on stock return. Return on assets, return on equity, debt to equity ratio, inflation and interest rate all simultaneously have effect on stock returns.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Faktor Internal dan Eksternal Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Makanan dan Minuman di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2008–2011

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya ◽  
Tinjung Desy Nursanti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Beverage Industry ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to look at the impact of internal and external factors to the stock return of food and beverage companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2008 to 2011 period. The method used is the regression equation analysis of panel data using a common effect type.The results show that the internal factors such current ratio, debt to equity ratio and return on assets showed a positive and significant influence on the company's stock return of food and beverage industry in the BEI. While external factors namely SBI interest rate and economic growth showed a different result, where the SBI interest rate has a negative and significant relationship to the company's stock return, while economic growth has no significant negative relationship to the stock returns.

scholarly journals Predictive Power of Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rate on Stock Return and Volatility: A Comparison

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Ching Poon ◽  
Gee Kok Tong
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Economic Volatility

Using monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and a battery of GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan, and Singapore) and four emerging markets who experienced a crisis before (Malaysia, India, Korea, and Philippines). It is found that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, have a weak predictor power for stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that there is no support for the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets.   Keywords: Predictive power; output; inflation; interest rate; stock return volatility.  

Macroeconomic Sensitivity, Risk-Return Trade-Off and Volatility Dynamics Evidence From Developed and Developing Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Hashim Khan ◽  
Saif Ur-Rehman Khan ◽  
Muhammad Jumaa ◽  
Sharif Ullah Jan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock return volatility along with the pricing of risk, and asymmetry and leverage effect on a comparative basis for the USA and UAE markets. Further, these three dimensions are also investigated with regard to various firm's features (such as firm's size and age). The daily data for the period 4th January 2010 to 29th December 2017 of firm stock returns from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADSE), and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) is considered and three time-series models were applied. The results from GARCH (1. 1) indicated that all the economic factors have significant impact on the stock return volatility in both the markets. Similarly, the study also found evidence of asymmetry & leverage effect using EGARCH in the NYSE (for all firms) and the UAE (partially). Finally, for a majority of the firms, a positive risk-return relationship is found in the UAE and a negative risk-return relationship is found in the NYSE using GARCH-in the mean. Interestingly, these results in context of both markets were different with respect to various firm features such as firm size and age. In light of these results, it is concluded that both the markets have different dynamics with regard to all three dimensions. Hence, the investors have a clear opportunity to diversify their risk and investments across developed and emerging markets.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Return Saham Dengan Profitabilitas Sebagai Variabel Intervening Di Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2013-2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Wulan Kurniasari ◽  
Adi Wiratno ◽  
Muhammad Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Good Investment ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to prove empirically that inflation and interest rates have a direct infuence on stock returns with ROA as intervening variables on Bankings listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange. The purposive sampling method used has certain criteria on samplings which published financial statements in 2013-2015 with documents in the average of a quartal of 10 banking industries based on Bank 3 book. This research shows the direct and indirect effect of using multiple linear regression to prove contribution of independent variable to dependent partially and simultaneously to stock return and using path analysis as the best intervening effect. Partial test result (t test) inflation and interest rate have direct influence to stock return with result of data of t-calculate> t-table is -4.000> 1.658 and -3.734> 1.658. ROA does not have a direct influence on stock return partial test results (Test t) t-count <t-table is 1.531 <1.658. Inflation has an indirect effect on stock return through ROA the result of 0.012 and the interest rate has indirect effect on stock return through ROA results 0.011. So, this research results can be used as information for investors and stakeholders in determining a good investment in Banking

Proposed Framework for Predicting Stock Return Volatility Using Neural Network: An Applied Study on the Egyptian Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 424
Author(s):  
Osama EL-Ansary ◽  
Nazeer Elshahat ◽  
Maha Saad Metawea
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
Egyptian Stock Exchange

Purpose: the primary purpose of the study is to determine the effect of both internal and external factors on stock returns volatility using different statistical methods, applied on Egyptian stock exchange.Methodology: the researchers have compared the accuracy of (GLS Model, GARCH Model, and Neural Network) in predicting the stock return volatility to choose the most accurate one. Data was collected from the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGYX 30) for the period (2014 to 2017) on a monthly basis.Findings: The results of the study revealed that the Neural Network Model has proven to outperform the traditional models in the prediction of stock return volatility.Originality: the study contributes to literature as it used Artificial Neural Network in two functions (Prediction of stock return volatility) and (Classification of the volatility to –high volatility and Low volatility). Also few studies concerned with stock return volatility in developing countries, especially Egypt.

Positive Tone in Management Reports and Volatility of Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110542
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Fernandes Malaquias ◽  
Dermeval Martins Borges Júnior
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
Disclosure Tone ◽  
Textual Content ◽  
And Control

This article aims to analyse the effects of positive tone in management reports on stock return volatility. It is expected that this article contributes to the literature about disclosure by proposing an objective textual content analysis of management reports, focussing on optimistic words or expressions employed by firms and their effect on stock return volatility. The sample consisted of management reports and financial data from 576 different Brazilian firms’ stocks. Regarding volatility, our measure is based on daily stock returns from 1 April 2011 to 23 October 2020. The data related to positive tone and control variables were based on the fiscal years 2010–2019. Therefore, the database contains 3,945 stock-year observations. The study hypothesis was tested through a regression model with panel data. The main results suggest that companies with higher positive disclosure tone scores do not necessarily present lower stock return volatility in the subsequent period. The objective content of financial reports (for example, in relation to profitability) seems to be related to stock volatility; however, the tone of subjective expressions does not represent the main determinant of stock volatility.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF RELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURNS, TRADING VOLUME, AND RETURN VOLATILITY

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 231-239
Author(s):  
Adeel Mustafa ◽  
Maria Tariq ◽  
Sabra Noveen ◽  
Rabia Najaf
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Good News ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Negative News ◽  
Negative Shock

We use a bivariate GJR-GARCH model to investigate relationship between trading volume and stock returns. We apply our approach on Pakistan stock exchange on data from January 2012 to March 2016. Our major findings include that negative shock has a greater impact on volatility and investors are more prone to the negative news whereas according to GJR-GARCH good news has greater impact on stock return and there is a strong relationship exist between the trading volume,stock return and stock volatility.

Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreenu N ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Return Volatility

PurposeIn any stock market, volatility is a significant factor in strengthening their asset pricing. The upsurge in volatility in the stock market can activate and bring changes in the financial risk. According to financial conventional theory, the stakeholders (investors) are selected to be balanced and variations in pertinent risk are also to be anticipated due to the outcome of the drive-in basic factors in Indian stock markets. The hypothesis shows that there are actions in systematic and unsystematic risks that are determined by volatility. It is allied to sentiment-driven in the trader movement.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the methodology of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in mean GARCH-M and exponential GARCH-M (E-GARCH-M) methods on the Indian stock market. The data have been covered from 2000 to 2019.FindingsFinally, the study suggests that due to the unfitness of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the selection has enhanced with sentiment is an important risk factor.Practical implicationsThe investor sentiment and stock return volatility statement are established by using the investor sentiment amalgamated stock market index built.Originality/valueThe outcome of the study shows that there is an important association between stakeholder (investor) sentiment and stock return, in case of volatility behavioural finance can significantly explain the behaviour of stock returns on the Indian Stock Exchange.

Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Malhotra ◽  
Vivek Bhargava ◽  
Mukesh Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Swap Spreads

Using data from the Treasury versus London Interbank Offer Swap Rates (LIBOR) for October 1987 to June 1998, this paper examines the determinants of swap spreads in the Treasury-LIBOR interest rate swap market. This study hypothesizes Treasury-LIBOR swap spreads as a function of the Treasury rate of comparable maturity, the slope of the yield curve, the volatility of short-term interest rates, a proxy for default risk, and liquidity in the swap market. The study finds that, in the long-run, swap spreads are negatively related to the yield curve slope and liquidity in the swap market. We also find that swap spreads are positively related to the short-term interest rate volatility. In the short-run, swap market's response to higher default risk seems to be higher spread between the bid and offer rates.

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