scholarly journals Sensitivity, Optimal Control, and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Intervention Strategies of Filariasis

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-76
Author(s):  
Darmawati Darmawati ◽  
Musafira Musafira ◽  
Darma Ekawati ◽  
Wahyudin Nur ◽  
Muhlis Muhlis ◽  
...  

In this work, sensitivity, optimal control, and cost-effectiveness of several intervention strategies of filariasis are discussed. We study the intervention strategies that are related to bednet use, insecticide, and the combination of bed-net use and insecticide. We use Pontryagin’s maximum principle to characterize the optimal controls. The Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER) and Infection Averted Ratio (IAR) are used to identify the most cost-effective strategy. We also determine the basic reproduction number and investigate the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number on the parameters that are related to bed-net use and insecticide. Based on the ACER values, the most cost-effective strategy to control filariasis is insecticide intervention. On the other hand, the IAR values indicates that bed-net use intervention is the most cost-effective strategy. Furthermore, it is also the most effective strategy to eliminate filariasis. The sensitivity analysis results show that the control parameter related to bed net use and treatment have a central role in reducing the basic reproduction number and filariasis spread.

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 567-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazeem Oare Okosun ◽  
M. Mukamuri ◽  
Daniel Oluwole Makinde

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of leptospirosis control measures, preventive vaccination and treatment of infective humans that may curtail the disease transmission. For this, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the disease that includes preventive, vaccination, treatment of infective vectors and humans control measures are considered. Firstly, the constant control parameters’ case is analyzed, also calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The threshold condition for disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable and can only be achieved when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The model is found to exhibit the existence of multiple endemic equilibria. Furthermore, to assess the relative impact of each of the constant control parameters measures the sensitivity index of the basic reproductive number to the model’s parameters are calculated. In the time-dependent constant control case, Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is used to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. The cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out by first of all using ANOVA to check on the mean costs. Then followed by Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for all the possible combinations of the disease control measures. Our results revealed that the most cost-effective strategy for the control of leptospirosis is the combination of the vaccination and treatment of infective livestocks. Though the combinations of all control measures is also effective, however, this strategy is not cost-effective and so too costly. Therefore, more efforts from policy makers on vaccination and treatment of infectives livestocks regime would go a long way to combat the disease epidemic.


Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 5603-5603
Author(s):  
Jean Lachaine ◽  
Karine Mathurin ◽  
Stephane Barakat

Abstract Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a distinct and rare morphological, clinical and pathological variant of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). It represents approximately 10% to 15% of AML.  APL is characterized by a high incidence of coagulopathy caused by disseminated intravascular coagulation and/or excessive fibrinolysis and is associated with a high early mortality.  Current first-line treatments consist of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), anthracyclines and conventional chemotherapy (CT). Although considerable progress has been made in the first-line treatment of APL, about 20 to 30% of patients who achieved complete remission (CR) still relapse Trisenox® is a sterile injectable solution of arsenic trioxide (ATO) and has been approved in several countries, including Canada, for the induction of remission and consolidation in patients with APL who are refractory to, or have relapsed from, retinoid and anthracycline chemotherapy. At this time, ATO is recognized as the standard treatment for relapsed or refractory APL. However, it is not reimbursed yet by provincial public health care systems and was available through a special access program in Canada until product availability. The objective of this study was to assess, from a Canadian perspective, the economic impact of ATO in the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory APL. A time-dependent Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ATO compared to ATRA+CT in the treatment of relapsed/refractory APL. Because there was no head-to-head clinical trial available, data from the ATO treatment arm were taken from Soignet, 2001, while data for ATRA+CT were taken from Thomas, 2000. The comparative treatment was composed of ATRA + sequential CT including cytarabine, mitoxantrone or etoposide, followed by autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in consolidation as described in Thomas, 2000. The Markov model comprises five health states: induction, second remission, treatment failure/relapse, post-failure, and death. The length of each Markov cycle was one month for the first 24-month study period then of one year. The model continued to run until all patients reached the absorbing state of death. All patients started in the induction state and could move to other health states thereafter. In case of treatment relapse/failure, patients were subsequently assigned to receive an allogeneic HSCT. The model also takes into account the incidence of treatment-induced grade 3-4 toxicity reported in both clinical trials (Soignet, 2001 and Thomas, 2000). Analyses were conducted from both a Canadian Ministry of Health (MoH) and a societal perspective over a lifetime horizon. In the treatment of relapsed/refractory APL, ATO is a cost-effective strategy over ATRA+CT, from both a health care system and a societal perspective. In fact, compared with ATRA+CT, ATO is associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of $20,443 per QALY and $22,219 per QALY, from a MoH and societal perspective respectively. Moreover, the results of the exhaustive sensitivity analysis confirm the robustness of the base-case results. In fact, according to the deterministic analysis results, ATO remained a cost-effective strategy compared with ATRA+CT from both perspectives. The ICERs vary between $9,785 and $40,732 / QALY from a MoH perspective and between $11,561 and $44,271 / QALY from a societal perspective. Results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that, according to a willingness to pay of $50,000, ATO remains a cost-effective strategy in 99.37% and 98.98% of the simulations, from a MoH and a societal perspective respectively. In conclusion, this economic evaluation demonstrates that ATO+ATRA is a cost-effective strategy in the treatment of relapsed/refractory APL. Disclosures: Lachaine: Lundbeck Canada: Research Funding. Barakat:Lundbeck Canada: Employment.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Ronald Kovac ◽  
Jake Fantus ◽  
Larry I Lipshultz ◽  
Marc Anthony Fischer ◽  
Zachery Klinghoffer

Introduction: Varicoceles are a common cause of male infertility; repair can be accomplished using either surgical or radiological means. We compare the cost-effectiveness of the gold standard, the microsurgical varicocele repair (MV), to the options of a non-microsurgical approach (NMV) and percutaneous embolization (PE) to manage varicocele-associated infertility.Methods: A Markov decision-analysis model was developed to estimate costs and pregnancy rates. Within the model, recurrences following MV and NMV were re-treated with PE and recurrences following PE were treated with repeat PE, MV or NMV. Pregnancy and recurrence rates were based on the literature, while costs were obtained from institutional and government supplied data. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity-analyses were performed to determine the effects of the various parameters on model outcomes.Results: Primary treatment with MV was the most cost-effective strategy at $5402 CAD (Canadian)/pregnancy. Primary treatment with NMV was the least costly approach, but it also yielded the fewest pregnancies. Primary treatment with PE was the least cost-effective strategy costing about $7300 CAD/pregnancy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis reinforced MV as the most cost-effective strategy at a willingness-to-pay threshold of >$4100 CAD/pregnancy.Conclusions: MV yielded the most pregnancies at acceptable levels of incremental costs. As such, it is the preferred primary treatment strategy for varicocele-associated infertility. Treatment with PE was the least cost-effective approach and, as such, is best used only in cases of surgical failure.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257598
Author(s):  
Willem Esterhuizen ◽  
Jean Lévine ◽  
Stefan Streif

We present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing, quarantining and vaccination. We describe the admissible and maximal robust positively invariant (MRPI) sets of these two models via the theory of barriers. We show how the sets may be used in the management of epidemics, for both perfect and imperfect/uncertain models, detailing how intervention strategies may be specified such that the hard infection cap is never breached, regardless of the basic reproduction number. The results are clarified with detailed examples.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (38) ◽  
pp. 1-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Auguste ◽  
Alexander Tsertsvadze ◽  
Joshua Pink ◽  
Rachel Court ◽  
Farah Seedat ◽  
...  

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB), caused byMycobacterium tuberculosis(MTB) [(Zopf 1883) Lehmann and Neumann 1896], is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Nearly one-third of the world’s population is infected with MTB; TB has an annual incidence of 9 million new cases and each year causes 2 million deaths worldwide.ObjectivesTo investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening tests [interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin tests (TSTs)] in latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) diagnosis to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development for three population groups: children, immunocompromised people and those who have recently arrived in the UK from high-incidence countries. All of these groups are at higher risk of progression from LTBI to active TB.Data sourcesElectronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and Current Controlled Trials were searched from December 2009 up to December 2014.Review methodsEnglish-language studies evaluating the comparative effectiveness of commercially available tests used for identifying LTBI in children, immunocompromised people and recent arrivals to the UK were eligible. Interventions were IGRAs [QuantiFERON®-TB Gold (QFT-G), QuantiFERON®-TB Gold-In-Tube (QFT-GIT) (Cellestis/Qiagen, Carnegie, VA, Australia) and T-SPOT.TB(Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK)]. The comparator was TST 5 mm or 10 mm alone or with an IGRA. Two independent reviewers screened all identified records and undertook a quality assessment and data synthesis. A de novo model, structured in two stages, was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies.ResultsIn total, 6687 records were screened, of which 53 unique studies were included (a further 37 studies were identified from a previous NICE guideline). The majority of the included studies compared the strength of association for the QFT-GIT/G IGRA with the TST (5 mm or 10 mm) in relation to the incidence of active TB or previous TB exposure. Ten studies reported evidence on decision-analytic models to determine the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs compared with the TST for LTBI diagnosis. In children, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £18,900 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In immunocompromised people, QFT-GIT negative followed by the TST (≥ 5 mm) was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of approximately £18,700 per QALY gained. In those recently arrived from high TB incidence countries, the TST (≥ 5 mm) alone was less costly and more effective than TST (≥ 5 mm) positive followed by QFT-GIT or T-SPOT.TBor QFT-GIT alone.LimitationsThe limitations and scarcity of the evidence, variation in the exposure-based definitions of LTBI and heterogeneity in IGRA performance relative to TST limit the applicability of the review findings.ConclusionsGiven the current evidence, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT for children, QFT-GIT negative followed by TST (≥ 5 mm) for the immunocompromised population and TST (≥ 5 mm) for recent arrivals were the most cost-effective strategies for diagnosing LTBI that progresses to active TB. These results should be interpreted with caution given the limitations identified. The evidence available is limited and more high-quality research in this area is needed including studies on the inconsistent performance of tests in high-compared with low-incidence TB settings; the prospective assessment of progression to active TB for those at high risk; the relative benefits of two-compared with one-step testing with different tests; and improved classification of people at high and low risk for LTBI.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009033.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zonglin Dai ◽  
Xi Zhang ◽  
Irene OL Wong ◽  
Eric HY Lau ◽  
Zhiming Lin

Background: Lupus nephritis (LN) is the most common secondary glomerular diseases that will cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and renal-related death. The cost-effectiveness of various treatments for LN recommended by official guidelines has not been investigated in China. Our study is to evaluate clinical prognosis and cost-effectiveness of the current treatments for severe LN.Methods: A Markov model was simulated for 1,000 LN patients of 30 years old, over a 3-years and 30-years lifetime horizon respectively. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of six therapeutic strategies from a societal perspective, with cyclophosphamide (CYC) or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) induction therapy followed by CYC, MMF or azathioprine (AZA) maintenance therapy. Main outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and clinical prognosis. One and three times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were used as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. We also carried out sensitivity analysis under a lifetime horizon.Results: Compared with the baseline strategy of CYC induction and maintenance, for a 3-years horizon the most cost-effective strategy was CYC induction and AZA maintenance with $448 per QALY gained, followed by MMF induction and AZA maintenance which however was not cost-effective under the one times GDP per capita WTP threshold. For a lifetime horizon, CYC induction and AZA maintenance remained the most cost-effective strategy but MMF induction and maintenance became cost-effective under the one times GDP per capita WTP threshold and achieved a higher complete remission rate (57.2 versus 48.9%) and lower risks of ESRD (3.3 versus 5.8%) and all-cause mortality (36.0 versus 40.8%). The risk of developing ESRD during maintenance was the most influential parameter affecting ICER.Conclusions: The strategy of CYC induction followed by AZA maintenance was the most cost-effective strategy in China for short-term treatment, while the strategy of MMF in both induction and maintenance became cost-effective and yielded more desirable clinical outcomes for lifetime treatment. The uncertainty analysis supported the need for monitoring the progression to ESRD.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 1186-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Aw ◽  
Kathryn Coyle ◽  
Isabelle Bence-Bruckler ◽  
Christopher N. Bredeson ◽  
Doug Coyle

Abstract Background: Indolent lymphomas are characterized by a chronic relapsing-remitting course. Bendamustine-Rituximab (BR) has been shown to improve overall response rate and progression free survival (PFS) in the upfront treatment of patients with indolent B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (iNHL), as compared with conventional chemoimmunotherapy (Rummel et al., 2013; Flinn et al., 2014). The pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review has recommended publicly funding BR, but concluded there is substantial uncertainty regarding the regimen's cost-effectiveness. The objective of our study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of BR as compared with Rituximab-Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Vincristine, Prednisone (RCHOP) as frontline treatment for patients with advanced iNHL from a Canadian perspective. Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the costs, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with the two regimen options allowing determination of the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR). Model parameters were derived from peer-reviewed studies. Key health states included FT (frontline therapy), MR (2-year state of maintenance R), PF1 (1st progression-free state), PD1/2/3 (subsequent progressive disease states requiring salvage), PF2/3/4 (subsequent progression-free states post-salvage), palliation and death. To determine progression after FT, individual data elements were derived from the published literature, and transition probabilities were determined through parametric survival analysis. Age-related mortality was obtained from Statistics Canada. Cost data (in 2016 Canadian dollars) were obtained from current funding arrangements under the New Drug Funding Program of Cancer Care Ontario, the Ontario Health Insurance Plan Schedule of Benefits and Fees, and the published literature. Utility values for health states and utility decrements associated with treatment related adverse events (AEs) were derived from peer-reviewed studies. The analysis was performed from the health care provider perspective, with a lifetime time horizon (equivalent to 24 years) and cycle lengths of 6 months. Patients were treated with a maximum of 3 lines of salvage therapy (3rd salvage permitted in age-appropriate patients achieving at least 1 year remission from 2nd line salvage). In order to address uncertainty of model input variables, a probabilistic analysis in which model inputs were represented by probability distributions was utilized, permitting a Monte Carlo simulation with 5000 replications. Costs and utilities were discounted at a rate of 5% per annum. Subgroup analyses for the following iNHL histologies were performed using individualized parametric survival curves: follicular lymphoma (FL), mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), marginal zone lymphoma (MZL), lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma (LPL). Results: The average costs and QALYs for the two treatment strategies were as follows: $116,811 and 5.86 QALYs for RCHOP; $121,364 and 6.38 QALYs for BR. The incremental cost per QALY gained for using BR with respect to RCHOP was $8,812 (Figure 1). Subgroup analyses revealed robust ICUR results: $27,398 (FL), $8,924 (MCL), $10,012 (MZL), $6,565 (LPL). For the commonly accepted willingness to pay threshold (WTP) of $50,000 per QALY, BR was the more cost-effective strategy 92% of the time in the entire cohort (Figure 2). In the subgroup analyses, BR was the more cost-effective strategy 66%, 82%, 64%, 86% of the time in FL, MCL, MZL, LPL respectively. ICUR results were robust to sensitivity analyses of key variables including age at study entry, maximum allowable age for therapy, duration of AEs, probability of death from palliation state and discount rate. Conclusion: Our model suggests that BR is a cost-effective strategy for the frontline treatment of patients with iNHL as compared with RCHOP. The cost-effectiveness of BR may be driven by the upfront PFS advantage despite higher acquisition costs and is consistent in various iNHL histology subgroups. Our analysis supports the use of frontline BR for iNHL in the Canadian setting. Figure 1 Cost-effectiveness acceptability curve Figure 1. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curve Figure 2 Incremental cost-effectiveness of BR relative to RCHOP with WTP threshold of $50,000 per QALY Figure 2. Incremental cost-effectiveness of BR relative to RCHOP with WTP threshold of $50,000 per QALY Disclosures Bence-Bruckler: Lundbeck: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinchan Jiang ◽  
Jiaqi Yao ◽  
Joyce You

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused patients to avoid seeking medical care. Provision of telemonitoring (TM) program in addition to usual care (UC) demonstrated improved effectiveness in managing heart failure (HF) patients. OBJECTIVE We aimed to examine the potential clinical and health economic outcomes of TM program for management of HF patients during COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of healthcare provider in Hong Kong. METHODS A Markov model was designed to compare outcomes of (1) UC plus TM (TM group) and (2) UC alone (UC group) in a hypothetical cohort of elderly HF patients in Hong Kong. Model outcome measures were direct medical cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the model assumptions and robustness of base-case results. RESULTS In base-case analysis, TM group gained higher QALYs (1.9007) at higher costs (USD15,888), when compared to UC group (1.8345 QALYs at USD15,603).Adopting 48,937 USD/QALY (1× gross domestic product per capita of Hong Kong) as the willingness-to-pay threshold, the TM group was accepted as a highly cost-effective strategy, with ICER of 4,292 USD/QALY. No threshold value was identified in deterministic sensitivity analysis. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, TM group was accepted as cost-effective in 99.22% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. CONCLUSIONS Adding TM program to usual care for HF patients appears to be a cost-effective strategy from the perspective of healthcare provider in Hong Kong.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. e0008811
Author(s):  
Joseph Sichone ◽  
Martin C. Simuunza ◽  
Bernard M. Hang’ombe ◽  
Mervis Kikonko

Background Plague is a re-emerging flea-borne infectious disease of global importance and in recent years, Zambia has periodically experienced increased incidence of outbreaks of this disease. However, there are currently no studies in the country that provide a quantitative assessment of the ability of the disease to spread during these outbreaks. This limits our understanding of the epidemiology of the disease especially for planning and implementing quantifiable and cost-effective control measures. To fill this gap, the basic reproduction number, R0, for bubonic plague was estimated in this study, using data from the 2015 Nyimba district outbreak, in the Eastern province of Zambia. R0 is the average number of secondary infections arising from a single infectious individual during their infectious period in an entirely susceptible population. Methodology/Principal findings Secondary epidemic data for the most recent 2015 Nyimba district bubonic plague outbreak in Zambia was analyzed. R0 was estimated as a function of the average epidemic doubling time based on the initial exponential growth rate of the outbreak and the average infectious period for bubonic plague. R0 was estimated to range between 1.5599 [95% CI: 1.382–1.7378] and 1.9332 [95% CI: 1.6366–2.2297], with average of 1.7465 [95% CI: 1.5093–1.9838]. Further, an SIR deterministic mathematical model was derived for this infection and this estimated R0 to be between 1.4 to 1.5, which was within the range estimated above. Conclusions/Significance This estimated R0 for bubonic plague is an indication that each bubonic plague case can typically give rise to almost two new cases during these outbreaks. This R0 estimate can now be used to quantitatively analyze and plan measurable interventions against future plague outbreaks in Zambia.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Olaniyi ◽  
O.S. Obabiyi ◽  
K.O. Okosun ◽  
A.T. Oladipo ◽  
S.O. Adewale

Abstract The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains the current global health challenge. In this paper, an epidemic model based on system of ordinary differential equations is formulated by taking into account the transmission routes from symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized individuals. The model is fitted to the corresponding cumulative number of hospitalized individuals (active cases) reported by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), and parameterized using the least squares method. The basic reproduction number which measures the potential spread of COVID-19 in the population is computed using the next generation operator method. Further, Lyapunov function is constructed to investigate the stability of the model around a disease-free equilibrium point. It is shown that the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium if the basic reproduction number of the novel coronavirus transmission is less than one. Sensitivities of the model to changes in parameters are explored. It is revealed further that the basic reproduction number can be brought to a value less than one in Nigeria, if the current effective transmission rate of the disease can be reduced by 50%. Otherwise, the number of active cases may get up to 2.5% of the total estimated population. In addition, two time-dependent control variables, namely preventive and management measures, are considered to mitigate the damaging effects of the disease using Pontryagin's maximum principle. The most cost-effective control measure is determined through cost-effectiveness analysis. Numerical simulations of the overall system are implemented in MatLab® for demonstration of the theoretical results.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document