scholarly journals Pemodelan Penjualan Produk Herbal Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

KOMTEKINFO ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Elvin Syahrin ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Jufriadif Na’am
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
A Company

Sales are a source of life for a company. Predicting the number of sales is important in analyzing the development of sales. Analysis of sales development is an important factor in increasing sales. Using the Monte Carlo method can predict the accuracy of the data items in the company. The results of this study on data processing in 2016 until 2017 have an accuracy of 97%. So this research is very precise in predicting sales for the future

scholarly journals Risk Assessment Models to Improve Environmental Safety in the Field of the Economy and Organization of Construction: A Case Study of Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13539
Author(s):  
Arkadiy Larionov ◽  
Ekaterina Nezhnikova ◽  
Elena Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Future

This article assesses risks in order to substantiate the economic and organizational efficiency of housing and industrial construction. This topic is relevant because it is necessary for sustainable development. In Russia, environmental safety in construction and housing, as well as communal services, is poorly developed and not regulated by the legal system. As building construction, housing, and communal services should be based on environmental safety, this topic requires rapid development. Methods related to quantifying environmental risk and making decisions under conditions of uncertainty were studied. A quantitative risk assessment was performed using the Monte Carlo method for pessimistic and optimistic options to prevent environmental damage. The model reproduced the distribution derived from the evidence-based fit. The results of sensitivity analysis are also presented to prove the hypothesis. The selection of the most appropriate probability density functions for each of the input quantities was implemented through settings in a computer program. The simulation modeling results clearly illustrate the choice of the general principle of assessment and the adoption of the optimal decision. In conditions of uncertainty, the decision to choose the optimistic options with high cost (to maintain the reliability of the technical system) but less risk plays a decisive role in the future environmental safety strategies of construction projects. The Monte Carlo method is preferable for environmental impact assessments. In the future, the amended methodology can be applied to raise environmental safety in the field of construction.

scholarly journals Prediksi Peningkatan Jumlah Pelanggan dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo

2021 ◽  
pp. 95-100
Author(s):  
Siska Dwi Anggraini ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
Mild Steel ◽  
Programming Language ◽  
Recording System ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Business Managers ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Number Of Customers

CV. Tomi Advertising is a business sector that operates in advertising, construction and promotion that has various types of work services such as manufacturing neonboxes, signboards, signboards, banners, mild steel, modif houses, and others. CV. Tomi Advertising was founded in August 1997 with several ups and downs in business so that it can survive until now by establishing cooperation in several areas such as Pekanbaru, Jambi, Riau Islands and Pangkal Pinang. The recording system for the number of customers who came to CV. Tomi Advertising is done manually using a book. So that the recording of the number of subscribers is not well organized. There are some customers who do not fill in the customer arrival book so that the increase in the number of customers from year to year is less effective. The prediction of the number of subscribers is used as a reference to increase the number of subscribers. The prediction of the number of subscribers is a calculation of the level of the number of customers who come at a certain time. The purpose of this study is to predict the increase in the number of customers that occur at CV. Tomi Advertising. Where, data processing carried out by the Monte Carlo method comes from the amount of data from January 2018 to December 2020. Data processing for the number of customers is also applied to the system using the PHP programming language (Hypertext Processor). Based on the simulation, the increase in the number of customers that has been done is getting an average of 72% so that it can make it easier for business managers to make decisions in order to develop a business.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Memprediksi Tingkat Lonjakan Penumpang (Studi Kasus di PT. Tri Arga Travel)

2020 ◽  
pp. 92-97
Author(s):  
Dina Mardiati ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Transportation Services ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Linear Congruential Generator ◽  
High Level ◽  
Linear Congruential ◽  
A Company

Tri Arga Travel is a company engaged in transportation services. The company really prioritizes the quality of service to consumers. So that on holidays there is usually a surge in passengers that cannot be predicted by the company. This greatly affects service to passengers. The purpose of this research is to predict the surge rate of PT. Tri Arga Travel, making it easier for the leadership of PT. Tri Arga Travel to take a policy when there is a surge in passengers in the future. The data used in this study is data on the number of passengers in 2017, 2018, and 2019 with the aim of padang-perawang. Then, the data is processed using the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method is a simulation method that uses random numbers obtained from the Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) to predict the rate of passenger spike in the following year by utilizing the previous year's passenger data. The results obtained from testing the Monte Carlo simulation can be seen that in July it is predicted that there will be a surge in passengers with an average level of accuracy of 86.74%. With a fairly high level of accuracy, the application of the Monte Carlo method can be used as a recommendation to predict the level of passenger spikes and also help in improving services to prospective passengers of PT. Tri Arga Travel.

scholarly journals Analysis of economic-financial viability, by the monte carlo method, in service provider of non-destructible tests: case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1454
Author(s):  
Vanessa Miguel Augusto Souza ◽  
Nilson Brandalise
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
A Company ◽  
Non Destructive

This work aims to present the economic-financial feasibility, through the application of the Monte Carlo Method, to assist managers in the decision making regarding the investment of a service contract of a company specialized in Non-Destructive Tests, with the tests of Penetrant Liquid and Ultrasound, to which the company that takes the service establishes the requirements previously. The method was apply, in 5000 iterations, from the established parameters, for the initial investment and demand of the test diaries, which provided data regarding the average for the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Profitability Index (PI), as well as the possible standard deviations, established by the coefficient of variation. Finally, after analyzing the data, it was check that the Method is useful to assist in the making of investment decisions, being feasible the adherence of the contract studied, through the analyzed data and established criteria.

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for the Prediction of Behavior of Peptides

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla P. Toropova ◽  
Andrey A. Toropov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Monte Carlo Technique ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Modern Natural

Prediction of physicochemical and biochemical behavior of peptides is an important and attractive task of the modern natural sciences, since these substances have a key role in life processes. The Monte Carlo technique is a possible way to solve the above task. The Monte Carlo method is a tool with different applications relative to the study of peptides: (i) analysis of the 3D configurations (conformers); (ii) establishment of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs); and (iii) development of databases on the biopolymers. Current ideas related to application of the Monte Carlo technique for studying peptides and biopolymers have been discussed in this review.

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