scholarly journals Assessment of Hydrological and Water Management Characteristics under Conditions of Uncertainty of the Formation Factors

2016 ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Bayesian Method ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Hydrological Characteristics ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Engineering Hydrology

The main problems of an engineering hydrology connected with the analysis of non-stationary sequences of hydrological characteristics, statistical inauthenticity of estimates, uncertainty of long-term forecasts, taking into account the need of the accounting of anthropogenic factors of the runoff alterations are discussed. The novel complicated hydrological tasks reasons have been analyzed, problems of the extreme events hydrological analysis have been classified, issues of decision making in the various uncertain conditions have been explored. The problem of the input long-term forecast reliability in the process of water management computations has been studied with the Lake Baikal level fluctuations range as a study case. Relevant issues of the hydrological characteristics assessment in the conditions of future climatic changes uncertainty have been considered. The Bayesian method of probabilistic assessment of extreme water consumption and levels on water bodies in conjunction with possibilities of the long-term forecasting based on the atmosphere circulation models are recommended.

scholarly journals Assessment of Hadzhibeysky estuary and forecasting possible water level in it

2017 ◽  
pp. 156-163
Author(s):  
Zh.R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

Introduction. Modern hydrology of the Hadzhibeysky estuary is due to natural and anthropogenic factors and characterized by their intense economic use. Since the beginning of the last century, there was an intense discharge of municipal waters from Odessa (biological treatment plant "North"). This led to a significant increase in the levels of water in the estuary, which threatened to destroy the dam that separates the estuary from the sea, with the possible flooding of residential areas and enterprises of the Peresip area, as well as the road, on the dam, especially in disastrously high water years. Purpose. The purpose problems – are estimation of filling the closed estuaries-reservoirs in north-west area of the Black sea and long–term forecasting of their condition during the spring period of year. The first task – an analysis of conditions of the Hadzhibeysky estuary in the presence of an exceptional spring flood and rain floods of exceedance probability (P = 1%). The second task – is to develop a methodology for the long-term forecasting of filling of the Hadzhibeysky estuary during the spring flood, which is the most abundant phase in the hydrological regime into the territory. Results. For the first time, the possibility of assessing the filling degree surface water from melting snow and rainfall when the estimated probability of exceeding P=1% in the closed estuaries-reservoirs of the Black Sea areas. The method of the long-term forecast of surface water during the spring period for the closed estuaries was substantiated. Typification of spring floods in accordance with their water content according to the model – discriminant function DF, which takes account of the complex of factors having an influence upon conditions of spring flood formation. Setting the probability of occurrence of the forecasting flow layers in the long-term period are implemented. Conclusion. This method allows risk assessment for sustainable land – and water use planning within the Black Sea estuaries. The method of the long-term forecast was realized by the author in operational work at the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas.

scholarly journals ON THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF SEASONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Morozova ◽  
Mariya Alimpieva
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
European Part ◽  
The South ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Model Region ◽  
Three Phases

In present paper the expanding application possibility of physical-statistical methods in long-term forecast are viewed.A nonparametric discriminate analyzing model has been constructed on the South-East of EPR (European part ofRussia). The model is based on consideration of asynchronous bonds between the condition of circulating systems of theAtlantic-Eurasian hemisphere sector and the period of seasonal hydrotermeological events onset on South-East of ЕPR.This model allows distinguishing three cluster areas which associate with three phases of predicted event; commonly,only two cluster areas are distinguished. We would like to present results of predictions testing of training and controlsets. The conclusion of our model region appliance effectiveness is also represented in paper.

Studying changes in climate normals in long-term forecasting of the Sea of Okhotsk ice cover.

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 99-114
Author(s):  
G.I. Anzhina ◽  
◽  
A.N Vrazhkin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Quantitative Difference ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

There is a similarity in dynamics and a quantitative difference in the ice cover regime in four consecutive 30-year periods: 1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, 1991–2020 are noted. The greatest differences are observed in the regime characteristics of the first and the last periods. The absolute maximum or minimum recorded in at least one of the months from January to May determines the nature of the ice cover of the entire ice season. The sensitivity of the predictive physical-statistical model to the replacement of climatic norms has been investigated. Estimates of the quality of forecasts of the average monthly ice cover are obtained. Keywords: base period, long-term forecast, physical and statistical model, ice cover, climate characteristics, typification, forecast skill scores

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 728
Author(s):  
Tareq Hussein ◽  
Mahmoud H. Hammad ◽  
Pak Lun Fung ◽  
Marwan Al-Kloub ◽  
Issam Odeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Model Merging ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021.

scholarly journals The approximation of an isolated epidemic process wave using a combination of exponents

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-400
Author(s):  
A. N. Avlas ◽  
A. K. Demenchuk ◽  
S. V. Lemeshevskii ◽  
E. K. Makarov
Keyword(s):  
Nonstationary Processes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Discrete Equations ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Logistic Functions

The most commonly used methods for the medium- and long-term forecasting of epidemic processes are based on the classical SIR (susceptible – infected – recovered) model and its numerous modifications. In this approach, the dynamics of the epidemic is approximated using the solutions of differential or discrete equations. The forecasting methods based on the approximation of data by functions of a given class are usually focused on obtaining a short-term forecast. They are not used for the long-term forecasts of epidemic processes due to their insufficient efficiency for forecasting nonstationary processes. In this paper, we formulated a hypothesis that the primary waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, which took place in a number of European countries, including the Republic of Belarus, in the spring-summer of 2020 are isolated and therefore can be regarded as processes close to stationary. On the basis of this hypothesis, a method of approximating isolated epidemic process waves by means of generalized logistic functions with an increased number of exponents was proposed. The developed approach was applied to predict the number of infected people in the Republic of Belarus for the period until August 2020 based on data from the beginning of the epidemic until June 12, 2020.

Development of Social and Economic Forecasting and Ideas of A. Anchishkin

2013 ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
G. Kuranov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Planning ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Working Out

The role of the prominent Soviet economist, academician A. Anchishkin (1933—1987), whose 80th birth anniversary we celebrate this year, in the development of ideas and formation of economic forecasting in the country at the time when the directive planning acted as a leading tool of economic management is explored in the article. Besides, Anchishkin’s special role is noted in developing a comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress, an information basis for working out long-term forecasts of the country’s development, moreover, his contribution to the creation of long-term forecasting methodology and improvement of the statistical basis for economic analysis and economic planning. The authors show that social and economic forecasting in the period after 1991, which has undertaken a number of functions of economic planning, has largely relied on further development of Anchishkin’s ideas, at the same time responding to new challenges for the Russian economy development during its entry into the world economic system.

Concussion in sports in children and adolescents – to play or not to play?

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gender Differences ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Return To Sport ◽  
Consensus Conference ◽  
Return To School ◽  
The Novel ◽  
International Consensus ◽  
Persistent Symptoms ◽  
New Findings

A lot has been published on the topic concussion in sports during the last years, conscience was sharpened, much was structured and defined more precisely, help tools were developed and rules changed. This article summarizes the fifth edition of the recently published guidelines of the “International Consensus Conference on Concussion in Sport”. In addition, new findings regarding gender differences and recovery will be presented, as well as the modified “return-to-sport” and the novel “return-to-school” protocols. Despite increased knowledge many questions remain such as the therapy of persistent symptoms or long-term sequelae of recurrent concussions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document