Studying changes in climate normals in long-term forecasting of the Sea of Okhotsk ice cover.

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 99-114
Author(s):  
G.I. Anzhina ◽  
◽  
A.N Vrazhkin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Quantitative Difference ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

There is a similarity in dynamics and a quantitative difference in the ice cover regime in four consecutive 30-year periods: 1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, 1991–2020 are noted. The greatest differences are observed in the regime characteristics of the first and the last periods. The absolute maximum or minimum recorded in at least one of the months from January to May determines the nature of the ice cover of the entire ice season. The sensitivity of the predictive physical-statistical model to the replacement of climatic norms has been investigated. Estimates of the quality of forecasts of the average monthly ice cover are obtained. Keywords: base period, long-term forecast, physical and statistical model, ice cover, climate characteristics, typification, forecast skill scores

scholarly journals PROBLEMS OF PERSONNEL SUPPORT OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
М. С. Ибрагимова ◽  
Т. В. Якубов
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Management ◽  
Actual State ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Central Object ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

Уровень конкуренции на современных рынках таков, что у производителей товаров и услуг повышаются требования к качеству долгосрочного прогнозирования, а активное использование принципов стратегического управления уже, скорее, обыденность. В статье анализируются ключевые проблемы кадрового обеспечения организации, реализующей стратегию инновационного развития. Персонал, как ключевой ресурс, всегда является центральным объектом анализа в ходе разработки стратегии независимо от ее характера. В статье речь идет о принципиальных отличиях, характерных для инновационного развития, а именно: разработка необходимых компетенций и оценка их соответствия фактическому состоянию кадров. The level of competition in modern markets is such that manufacturers of goods and services have increased requirements for the quality of long-term forecasting, and the active use of the principles of strategic management is more likely to be commonplace. The article analyzes the key problems of staffing the organization implementing the strategy of innovative development. Personnel, as a key resource, is always the central object of analysis during the development of a strategy, regardless of its nature. The article deals with the fundamental differences characteristic of innovative development, namely: the development of the necessary competencies and assessment of their compliance with the actual state of personnel.

USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN FORECAST TASKS

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
E.S. Lartseva ◽  
◽  
A.D. Kuznetsova
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Animal Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Applied Software ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Russian Federation

Based on official statistics on the number, of representatives of the family of non-ruminant cloven-hoofed animals (Artiodactyl) on the territory of the Russian Federation. Using the example of two species: domestic pigs and wild boars, the dynamics of the indicator for the long term is analyzed. Multidirectional trends were revealed for each species. Mathematical models of the dynamics of the livestock were obtained using the methods of regression analysis and applied software. Statistical estimates of the quality of animal population models were obtained. The short-term forecast for 2020 has been fulfilled.

scholarly journals ON THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF SEASONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Morozova ◽  
Mariya Alimpieva
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
European Part ◽  
The South ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Model Region ◽  
Three Phases

In present paper the expanding application possibility of physical-statistical methods in long-term forecast are viewed.A nonparametric discriminate analyzing model has been constructed on the South-East of EPR (European part ofRussia). The model is based on consideration of asynchronous bonds between the condition of circulating systems of theAtlantic-Eurasian hemisphere sector and the period of seasonal hydrotermeological events onset on South-East of ЕPR.This model allows distinguishing three cluster areas which associate with three phases of predicted event; commonly,only two cluster areas are distinguished. We would like to present results of predictions testing of training and controlsets. The conclusion of our model region appliance effectiveness is also represented in paper.

scholarly journals Real-time forecast of MUF for radio paths from current data obtained from oblique sounding with continuous chirp signal

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 83-91
Author(s):  
Николай Ильин ◽  
Nikolay Ilyin ◽  
Татьяна Бубнова ◽  
Tatyana Bubnova ◽  
Виктор Грозов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Transmission Curve ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Curve Method ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Time Extrapolation

We present a technique of MUF real-time forecast based on time extrapolation for maximum observed frequencies smoothed over a long-term forecast along a given path. We have validated the technique of fitting current data from the long-term forecast, using the OPEMI model, transmission curve method for short paths, and method of normal waves for long paths (over 2000 km). This technique has been tested using data obtained at the chirp sounding network of ISTP SB RAS during periods of strong and weak solar activity. The quality of the forecast has been found to significantly improve in comparison to the long-term forecast, with advance intervals of real-time forecast from 15 to 30 min. The sessions, in which the real-time forecast error is less than 10 % for 15-min advance interval, comprise from 67 to 96 % of all sessions depending on season and radio path orientation.

scholarly journals Assessment of Hadzhibeysky estuary and forecasting possible water level in it

2017 ◽  
pp. 156-163
Author(s):  
Zh.R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

Introduction. Modern hydrology of the Hadzhibeysky estuary is due to natural and anthropogenic factors and characterized by their intense economic use. Since the beginning of the last century, there was an intense discharge of municipal waters from Odessa (biological treatment plant "North"). This led to a significant increase in the levels of water in the estuary, which threatened to destroy the dam that separates the estuary from the sea, with the possible flooding of residential areas and enterprises of the Peresip area, as well as the road, on the dam, especially in disastrously high water years. Purpose. The purpose problems – are estimation of filling the closed estuaries-reservoirs in north-west area of the Black sea and long–term forecasting of their condition during the spring period of year. The first task – an analysis of conditions of the Hadzhibeysky estuary in the presence of an exceptional spring flood and rain floods of exceedance probability (P = 1%). The second task – is to develop a methodology for the long-term forecasting of filling of the Hadzhibeysky estuary during the spring flood, which is the most abundant phase in the hydrological regime into the territory. Results. For the first time, the possibility of assessing the filling degree surface water from melting snow and rainfall when the estimated probability of exceeding P=1% in the closed estuaries-reservoirs of the Black Sea areas. The method of the long-term forecast of surface water during the spring period for the closed estuaries was substantiated. Typification of spring floods in accordance with their water content according to the model – discriminant function DF, which takes account of the complex of factors having an influence upon conditions of spring flood formation. Setting the probability of occurrence of the forecasting flow layers in the long-term period are implemented. Conclusion. This method allows risk assessment for sustainable land – and water use planning within the Black Sea estuaries. The method of the long-term forecast was realized by the author in operational work at the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas.

Long-Term Forecasting of World Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Y. Lukashin ◽  
L. Rakhlina
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
New Era ◽  
Spare Time ◽  
Processing Gain ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
High Level

The paper considers contemporary approaches of long-term forecasting of world and national economics. Foreign practice is of especial interest of authors. Researches and results of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Goldman Sachs are exposed in details. Authors make the following conclusions: a production function model is used often to generate forecasts. The parameters of these models are postulated by experts in coincidence with their scenario of World development. Main indicators to forecast are GDP, GDP per capita and changes in country ranks. Authors consider GDP as not ideal indicator for the goal since it may be calculated by three methods. Besides, it has different structure and quality in different countries. Authors point to the need for estimation and comparison of quality of life. They suggest to take into account the revolutionary changing in technologies and to schedule the optimum and the most realistic path to improve the quality of life. Authors suggest that the most developed countries are entering a new era when robots will work more and more instead of people in industry, agriculture, and services. Many operations in control, management and data processing gain higher productivity due to endless progress in computer science. As a result authors foresee further shortening of the working week. On their opinion this is the way which leads to real success in struggle against unemployment. ICT technologies enable many employees to work now at home. Growing of spare time leads to new pattern of life, new possibilities of education, new types of creative work, new possibilities of communication, additional possibilities for health care, high level of life quality. So far, comparison of national economy development on the basis of measuring GDP seems to become obsolete and irrelevant to current social and economic conditions. Now we can expect to see negative rates of GDP growth and augmentation of life quality. Thus, to construct the countries’ ranks in world competition correctly it is of great importance to take into account the social factors and the role of innovation technologies in world economic development.

scholarly journals Issues in Determining the Real Value of Concession Fees When Granting Concession for Commercial Use of Maritime Domain

Pomorstvo ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-263
Author(s):  
Vlado Mezak ◽  
Alen Jugović ◽  
Donald Schiozzi ◽  
Filip Vice Lapov
Keyword(s):  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The Real ◽  
Legal Provisions ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Real Value ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Concession Contract

This paper analyzes the legislation related to concessions on maritime domains and indicates the need to adjust certain legal provisions to improve the quality of the concession granting procedure. The object of this paper is to indicate the issues in determining the real value of a concession fee in the process of preparing a feasibility study for granting the concession, and to give a scientific contribution by proposing procedures and measures, which can enable setting more precise concession fee values. Using the methods of comparison, analysis, and synthesis, authors prove that in the process of preparing a feasibility study for granting the concession it is not possible to assess the real value of the concession and concession fee with certainty, as it is necessary to estimate economic sizes in the long term. Each concession contract, lasting longer than five years, should be subject to a peer review owing to changes in economic, political, demographic, and other indicators, and if necessary, the value of concession fee should be adjusted accordingly. The authors explain the stated imprecision in the estimate of economic indicators by the index of uncertainty of economic policies, and with the inability of long-term forecasting of potential economic crises.

Monitoring and Prediction of Air Quality using Neural Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Shwetal Raipure
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Pollution Index ◽  
Learning Technologies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Initial Information ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The Neural Network

Air Quality monitoring is very important in today s world. There are many harmful pollutants present in the air which are very harmful for human health. Prolonged consumption of such air may lead to severe death and harmful diseases. It is also harmful for crops as well as animals which may damage natural environment. There are  several pollutants which are present in the air that decreases the quality of air such as sulfur oxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and dioxide, and particulate matter. Neural Network  can be used for prediction of population for short term as well as long term using a deep learning technologies. Neural network specify two types of predictive models. the first one is the a temporal which is for short-term forecast of the pollutants in the air for the short coming or nearest days and the second one is  a spatial forecast of atmospheric pollution index in any point of city. The artificial neural networks takes initial information and consider the hidden dependencies are used to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the ecology management decisions. In this paper the forecasting of atmospheric air pollution index in industrial cities based on the  neural network model has proposed.

scholarly journals Variability of Lake Ice Growth and Quality in the Schefferville Region, Central Labrador—Ungava

1962 ◽  
Vol 4 (33) ◽  
pp. 337-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. T. Andrews
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Lake Ice ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Accumulated Degree Days

Abstract An examination of rates of ice growth, actual ice thickness and the quality of the lake ice profile on Knob Lake, central Labrador—Ungava, showed that all these factors were extremely variable. Three sites were established on Knob Lake from 1957 to 1961, and a similar sequence of sites was established on a neighbouring lake, Maryjo Lake, from 1959 to 1961. Significant variations occurred within a single lake body from site to site, though it was noted that certain patterns of ice growth and quality did occur throughout most years and could be directly related to patterns of snow accumulation on the lake. Variations from lake to lake were found to be least at the centre lake sites, probably because snow cover was always least at these sites and would not affect heat loss so greatly as at the marginal sites. It is suggested that the majority of empirical formulae proposed for lake ice growth are unrealistic for short-term forecasting of ice thickness and growth, and even long-term forecasting, using accumulated degree-days of frost, only gives average values. The only answer is repeated samplings on any lake, until such time that sufficient data are gathered for a full statistical approach based on probability analysis.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 728
Author(s):  
Tareq Hussein ◽  
Mahmoud H. Hammad ◽  
Pak Lun Fung ◽  
Marwan Al-Kloub ◽  
Issam Odeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Model Merging ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021.

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