EVALUATION OF PERSISTENCE OF STREAMING CRYPTOSYSTEMS OPERATING AS PART OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS MANAGEMENT NETWORK SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-62
Author(s):  
Николай Михайлович Радько ◽  
Светлана Сергеевна Тихонова ◽  
Александр Николаевич Мокроусов
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Network System ◽  
Threat Model ◽  
Cryptographic Security ◽  
Telecommunications Management Network ◽  
As If

Целью исследования является повышение защищенности телекоммуникационных систем управления в контексте криптографической защиты с использованием математического аппарата риск-анализа для оценки стойкости поточных криптосистем. Стойкость поточной криптосистемы в работе рассмотрена как совокупность рисков разнородных компонентов поточной криптосистемы, уязвимых к деструктивному воздействию. В ходе исследования проанализированы уязвимости компонентов поточной криптосистемы, особенности среды функционирования, построены модель угроз и риск-модель атакуемой поточной криптосистемы, предложены мероприятия по снижению рисков поточных криптосистем. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы или адаптированы при необходимости повышения стойкости поточных криптосистем на этапах проектирования и модернизации, а также при необходимости восстановления эффективности функционирования после компрометации или взлома. На основе предложенной риск-модели поточной криптосистемы в дальнейшем возможна реализация программного обеспечения для оценки стойкости поточных криптосистем. The aim of the article consists in increasing of security level of telecommunications management network system due to cryptographic security methods. Risk analysis is used as an instrument of evaluation of persistence of streaming cryptosystems. The vulnerabilities of components and features of environment are analyzed. The threat model and the risk model of the stream cryptosystem are built. Measures of reducing the risks of stream cryptosystems are proposed. The obtained results can be used or adapted if it is necessary to increase the persistence of streaming cryptosystems during the design and modernization stages, as well as if it is necessary to restore operational efficiency after compromising or hacking. Based on the proposed risk model of a stream cryptosystem, it is further possible to implement software to assess the persistence of stream cryptosystems.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

Analysis of risk concept for technical systems using digital twins

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Анатолий Михайлович Лепихин ◽  
Николай Андреевич Махутов ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин ◽  
Андрей Васильевич Юрченко
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Product Lifecycle Management ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Active Research

Рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты анализа рисков технических систем с использованием цифровых двойников. Сформулирована концепция рисканализа и предложена базовая модель для ее реализации. Рассмотрены информационные аспекты анализа неопределенностей модели риска. Показано, что технологии цифровых двойников позволяют эффективно сочетать результаты компьютерного моделирования с данными мониторинга реальных объектов, обеспечивая более глубокий анализ объектов, с учетом множества вариантов конструкции, технологий и условий эксплуатации Development of technology and technical systems significantly increases in the volume of information. Traditional methods for designing, manufacturing and operating of technical systems do not allow processing such volumes of information. In this regard, the modern strategy for creating technical systems is based on the use of digital twins. Solving the problems of risk analysis and risk management for technical systems at all stages of the life cycle appears to be one of the promising areas for application of the digital twins technology. Despite of active research, using digital twins in risk analysis currently do not have appropriate methodological justifications and technical solutions in a number of key aspects. In particular, effective reductions of the order of risk models and quantifying uncertainty factors of various types have not been solved. The concept of the risk-informed decision making in product lifecycle management has not been implemented. In fact, there are very few publications on the risk analysis and risk management methodology using digital twins. The article discusses the main methodological aspects of risk analysis of technical systems using digital twins. The concept of risk analysis is formulated and a basic model for its implementation is proposed. The informational aspects of the analysis of uncertainties of the risk model are considered. It is shown that digital twin technologies allow effective combination of the results of computer modelling with the data monitoring of real objects, providing a deeper analysis of objects, taking into account a variety of design options, technologies and operating conditions.

scholarly journals A Security Enhanced Encryption Scheme and Evaluation of Its Cryptographic Security

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 701
Author(s):  
Miodrag J. Mihaljević
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Channel Capacity ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Encryption Scheme ◽  
Secret Key ◽  
Error Correction Coding ◽  
Security Enhancement ◽  
Encryption Schemes ◽  
Cryptographic Security ◽  
Encryption Decryption

An approach for security enhancement of a class of encryption schemes is pointed out and its security is analyzed. The approach is based on certain results of coding and information theory regarding communication channels with erasures and deletion errors. In the security enhanced encryption scheme, the wiretapper faces a problem of cryptanalysis after a communication channel with bits deletion and a legitimate party faces a problem of decryption after a channel with bit erasures. This paper proposes the encryption-decryption paradigm for the security enhancement of lightweight block ciphers based on dedicated error-correction coding and a simulator of the deletion channel controlled by the secret key. The security enhancement is analyzed in terms of the related probabilities, equivocation, mutual information and channel capacity. The cryptographic evaluation of the enhanced encryption includes employment of certain recent results regarding the upper-bounds on the capacity of channels with deletion errors. It is shown that the probability of correct classification which determines the cryptographic security depends on the deletion channel capacity, i.e., the equivocation after this channel, and number of codewords in employed error-correction coding scheme. Consequently, assuming that the basic encryption scheme has certain security level, it is shown that the security enhancement factor is a function of the deletion rate and dimension of the vectors subject to error-correction encoding, i.e., dimension of the encryption block.

scholarly journals Use of Risk Analysis for Water Security Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 295 ◽  
pp. 02008
Author(s):  
Samah Jabari ◽  
Isam Shahrour ◽  
Jamal khatabi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Palestinian Territory

This paper presents analysis of water security using risk analysis. It contributes to an enhanced understanding of the water security issue through creating indicators and their use in the determination of the water security level. The paper presents first the methodology followed in this research, which includes three steps: identification of water risk drivers, the determination of their severity and likelihood and finally the calculation of the water security score. The paper presents the first step of the application of this methodology to Palestinian territory through the identification of the drivers of the water risk and the levels of both the severity and likelihood to be used in future water security assessment.

Investment Risk Analysis on the Widespread Use of Electric Vehicles

2011 ◽  
Vol 271-273 ◽  
pp. 895-899
Author(s):  
Bin Wu ◽  
Min Xi Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Because of the gradually increasing gap between supply and demand of oil and more attention paid to the environment, the pace of Electric Vehicle investment is gradually increasing, and the problem of investment risk comes into focus. This paper studies the Investment Risk of widespread manufactory of Electric Vehicles, which is in Problem C of ICM (The Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling) in 2011. In order to give a rough estimate, we establish an investment risk model, using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Evaluation to evaluate the investment risk. Finally, we will provide reasonable opinions to vehicle manufacturers.

Hazmat Routing: Alternate Routing Risk Analysis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary A. Gordon ◽  
Richard R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Alternate Route ◽  
Railroad Industry ◽  
Short Line ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Alternate Routing ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Alternate Routes

The railroad industry is challenged by the complexity and cost of performing the alternate route analysis as required by the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) hazmat routing regulation. This is especially problematic to the regional and short line railroads for several reasons, including the unavailability of alternate routes and, as with the Class I railroads, it is a matter of cost and complexity of analysis. This research paper will look at developing a simplified risk model so as to reduce the cost and complexity of the analysis. This will be accomplished by, among other things, looking at the input parameters to the model for commonality so as to reduce the number (of input parameters) and look at three operating conditions for the analysis. They are: 1) the premise that there are available alternate routes, 2) that alternate routes may not be feasible operationally or economically and 3) that there are no alternate routes. This research and analysis will result in a model that is less complex and costly to run and address the concerns and challenges of the short line and regional railroads.

scholarly journals Integration of Interpretive Structural Modeling with Fuzzy Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Leping He ◽  
Tao Tang ◽  
Qijun Hu ◽  
Qijie Cai ◽  
Zhijun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Tunnel Collapse ◽  
The Relationship

Frequent collapse accidents in tunnels are associated with many construction risk factors, and the interrelationship among these risk factors is complex and ambiguous. This study’s aim is to clarify the relationship among risk factors to reduce the tunnel collapse risk. A multicriteria decision-making method is proposed by combining interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN). ISM is used to determine the hierarchical relationships among risk factors. FBN quantitatively analyzes the strength of the interaction among risk factors and conducts risk analysis. The ISM-FBN method contains three steps: (1) drawing the ISM-directed graph; (2) obtaining the probability of the FBN nodes; and (3) using GeNle to implement risk analysis. The proposed method is also used to assess the collapse risk and detect the critical factors in the Canglongxia Tunnel, China. This method’s tunnel collapse risk model can provide managers with clear risk information and better realize project management.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis through the Half-Normal Distribution

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2080
Author(s):  
Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia ◽  
Joan Montllor-Serrats ◽  
Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Matrices

We study the applicability of the half-normal distribution to the probability–severity risk analysis traditionally performed through risk matrices and continuous probability–consequence diagrams (CPCDs). To this end, we develop a model that adapts the financial risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) to risky scenarios that face only negative impacts. This model leads to three risk indicators: The Hazards Index-at-Risk (HIaR), the Expected Hazards Damage (EHD), and the Conditional HIaR (CHIaR). HIaR measures the expected highest hazards impact under a certain probability, while EHD consists of the expected impact that stems from truncating the half-normal distribution at the HIaR point. CHIaR, in turn, measures the expected damage in the case it exceeds the HIaR. Therefore, the Truncated Risk Model that we develop generates a measure for hazards expectations (EHD) and another measure for hazards surprises (CHIaR). Our analysis includes deduction of the mathematical functions that relate HIaR, EHD, and CHIaR to one another as well as the expected loss estimated by risk matrices. By extending the model to the generalised half-normal distribution, we incorporate a shape parameter into the model that can be interpreted as a hazard aversion coefficient.

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