scholarly journals Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9229
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Normalization Process

It has been more than a decade since central banks, in the face of the global financial crisis, implemented a set of unconventional initiatives that included a rapid and significant decrease in their main interest rates and an unprecedented balance sheet policy. Thus far, they still have not returned their monetary policy to the pre-crisis framework and have not implemented a normalization process. Currently, a trend of using econometric models in monetary policy for forecasting purposes has been observed. Among these models, Bayesian vector autoregression models (BVAR models) are increasingly being used by central banks. The main aim of this study was to conduct an empirical verification of the BVAR model’s usage for short-term prediction which could then be used for a sustainable (ordered) normalization process for the UK’s monetary policy. This study verifies a research hypothesis which states that the BVAR model might be a useful tool in the Bank of England’s decision-making process regarding the normalization of its monetary policy. Additionally, the cause and effect analysis, observation method, document analysis method, and synthesis method were also considered. The conducted research indicates that a large BVAR model has a significant predictive value for short-term forecasting.

scholarly journals Conventional Monetary Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-51
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil ◽  
Alessio Fotia
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

AbstractThis chapter introduces conventional monetary policy, i.e. monetary policy during periods of economic and financial stability and when short-term interest rates are not constrained by the zero lower bound. We introduce the concept of an operational target of monetary policy and explain why central banks normally give this role to the short-term interbank rate. We briefly touch macroeconomics by outlining how central banks should set interest rates across time to achieve their ultimate target, e.g. price stability, and we acknowledge the complications in doing so. We then zoom further into monetary policy operations and central bank balance sheets by developing the concepts of autonomous factor, monetary policy instruments, and liquidity-absorbing and liquidity providing balance sheet items. Subsequently we explain how these quantities relate to short-term interest rates, and how the central bank can rely on this relation to steer its operational target, and thereby the starting point of monetary policy transmission. Finally, we explain the importance of the collateral framework and related risk control measures (e.g. haircuts) for the liquidity of banks and for the conduct of central bank credit operations.

scholarly journals Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Olga Kuznetsova ◽  
Sergey Merzlyakov ◽  
Sergey Pekarski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Consistency ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

scholarly journals Over- and Underbidding in Central Bank Open Market Operations Conducted as Fixed Rate Tender

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
General Question ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Open market operations play a key role in allocating central bank funds to the banking system and thereby in steering short-term interest rates in line with the stance of monetary policy. Many central banks apply so-called ‘fixed rate tender’ auctions in their open market operations. This paper presents, on the basis of a survey of central bank experience, a model of bidding in such tenders. In their conduct of fixed rate tenders, many central banks faced specifically an ‘under-’ and an ‘overbidding’ problem. These phenomena are revisited in the light of the proposed model, and the more general question of the optimal tender procedure and allotment policy of central banks is addressed.

Central Bank Communication

2019 ◽  
pp. 230-262
Author(s):  
Jakob de Haan ◽  
Jan-Egbert Sturm
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Public ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
The World ◽  
Future Direction

Many central banks in the world nowadays regard their external communication as an important tool to achieve their goals. This chapter provides an overview of the different ways in which central banks inform the public about the future direction of monetary policy and how successful they have been in recent years. Forward guidance is either part of a monetary policy strategy in which an explicit inflation target is targeted or is part of a strategy that attempts to circumvent the effective lower bound regarding the nominal interest rate. In both cases, forward guidance attempts to influence longer-term interest rates and inflation expectations through the expected future short-term interest rates.

scholarly journals Framework for Preserving Financial Stability in Montenegro

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoje Žugić ◽  
Nikola Fabris
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract The global financial crisis has challenged the traditional monetary policy framework of one instrument (short-term interest rates) - one objective (price stability). More and more central banks nowadays consider financial stability as a monetary policy objective, whereas the Central Bank of Montenegro is the only one that has identified financial stability as its primary objective. As this is a relatively new objective, all central banks endeavouring to attain this objective have been facing numerous difficulties. Therefore, the article analyzes some of these difficulties such as defining financial (in)stability, the selection of indicators, macroeconomic environment for preserving financial stability, and the like. The main objective of the paper is to analyse the framework for preserving financial stability in Montenegro and the challenges that the Central Bank of Montenegro has been facing in accomplishing this objective

UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND A MODERN VIEW ON CASH ISSUES

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Ch. A. GOGICHAEV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Abnormal Growth ◽  
Excess Reserves ◽  
Close Relationship

In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks in developed countries began to resort to unconventional monetary policy measures as interest rates approached zero. Such actions have led to the expansion of the balance sheets of central banks due to the abnormal growth of excess reserves. The article discusses the misconception that such an increase in the monetary base can directly affect the volume of money supply through the action of the money multiplier mechanism and the narrow credit channel of the transmission mechanism. The opinion disputed that non-traditional measures of monetary policy, pro-vided they are adequate, lead to an increase in inflationary risks in the economy. The work focuses on the lack of a close relationship between reserves, the level of lending and the money supply, and attempts made to assess the boundaries of the monetary policy methods under consideration.

scholarly journals Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 147-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia ◽  
Pau Rabanal ◽  
Damiano Sandri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The United Kingdom

The global financial crisis hit hard in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Real GDP from peak to trough contracted by about 6 percent in the euro area and the United Kingdom and by 9 percent in Japan. In all three cases, central banks cut interest rates aggressively and then, as policy rates approached zero, deployed a variety of untested and unconventional monetary policies. In doing so, they hoped to restore the functioning of financial markets, and also to provide further monetary policy accommodation once the policy rate reached the zero lower bound. In all three jurisdictions, the strategy entailed generous liquidity support for banks and other financial intermediaries and large-scale purchases of public (and in some cases private) assets. As a result, central banks’ balance sheets expanded to unprecedented levels. This paper examines the experience with unconventional monetary policies in the euro zone, the United Kingdom, and Japan. The paper starts with a discussion of how quantitative easing, forward guidance, and negative interest rate policies work in theory, and some of their potential side effects. It then reviews the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, including a narrative of how central banks responded to the crisis and the evidence on the effects of unconventional monetary policy actions.

MONETARY POLICY AND GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT DURING THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 255 ◽  
pp. 79-84
Author(s):  
William A. Allen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The United Kingdom

This paper describes how the large budget deficits of 2020 in the United States and the United Kingdom were financed, how central banks are in practice managed not just short-term interest rates but also yields on government bonds, and how their ability to resist a post-coronavirus surge in inflation has been compromised.

A NEW ERA FOR MONETARY POLICY: CHALLENGES FOR THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (01) ◽  
pp. 57-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
AD VAN RIET
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
New Era ◽  
European Central

Since the start of the global financial crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has faced exceptional challenges in fulfilling its price stability mandate, marking the start of a new era of monetary policy-making for the eurozone. This paper reviews the ECB’s evolving response from mid-2007 to early-2015, showing how it combined the standard tool of adjusting its policy interest rates with non-standard passive and active balance-sheet measures, accompanied by a forward guidance of its intended monetary stance. Altogether, the ECB stayed focused on price stability while fulfilling the two classical roles of lender of last resort to resolve money market tensions and market maker of last resort to repair monetary transmission. Addressing the many challenges was complicated by the nexus between fragile banks and vulnerable governments, the ensuing financial fragmentation and the complex institutional and political structure of the eurozone. Looking ahead, the new reinforced European financial architecture could make the ECB’s monetary policy task of maintaining price stability for the eurozone easier to accomplish.

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