scholarly journals Assessment of Government Agriculture and Rural Development Expenditure Impact on the Malaysia’s Agriculture Production

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Lian Zhi ◽  
Kelly Kai Seng Wong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monthly Bulletin ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study is focused on determination of the important factors that have affected the agriculture production in Malaysia. The data on interest rate (IR) and government agriculture expenditure (GE) were collected from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) monthly bulletin statistic. Besides that, the number of labor use in agriculture sector (LA) was collected from the World Development Indicator (WDI). All data collected were based on the time series (annually) from 1983 to 2016. In this study, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) tests are used to determine the stationary of the time series data and the overall findings showed that the time series data are stationary at order one or I(1). In this study, the result of Engle Granger (EG) co-integration test was used and stated that all the factors were co-integrated with the agriculture productivity. However, the GE2 and interest rate (IR) are the only factors that showed a negative relationship. In the long run, all the factors are significantly affecting agricultural productivity, while the interest rate is insignificant to determine the agriculture production. Furthermore, the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) model showed that all the factors are significantly influencing the agricultural production in Malaysia except the interest rate. In the nutshell, this study suggests that the policy maker  should take the precautions in the budget spending in agriculture sector, which should not exceed the threshold spending of RM3,057 million.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Capital Underutilization on Economic Growth: the Case of India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya Kumar M ◽  
Balu B
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Labor Organization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Adf Test

Abstract This study investigated the effect of human capital underutilization on the economic growth of India. It has used time-series data accessed from the International Labor Organization (ILO) and World Bank database. This paper estimated the relationship between the underutilization of human capital on economic growth by applying the econometric tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Integration Test, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed that in the long run human capital underutilization has a negative relationship on GDP and labor productivity and it does not in the short run. The study recommends that specific policy legislations in the Indian labor markets are required for addressing the problem of human capital underutilization and thereby accelerating the economic growth and productivity for the current and future generations.

scholarly journals FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INVESTASI PEMERINTAH PADA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI PROVINSI JAMBI

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Mulyani Mulyani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Agriculture Sector

This research was conducted to analyse government investment in agriculture sector at Jambi Province. This research was held  on June - September 2017 by collecting data from several agencies. It used a time series data for 10 years (2006-2015).  This research  applied   multiple linear regression to  analyse the data. The results show that 95.9% of government investment in agriculture sector could  be  explained by  domestic  income variable, export-import growth of agriculture sector, real interest rate, rupiah exchange rate, previous government investment, and growth of agriculture sector. In fact the factors that had a significant effect were domestic  income variable, , export-import growth of agricultural sector, previous government investment and the growth of agriculture sector.Keywords: government investment, agricultural sector, growthPenelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis investasi pemerintah pada sektor pertanian di Provinsi Jambi. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Provinsi Jambi dengan mengumpulkan data dari beberapa instansi terkait, yang dilaksanakan pada bulan Juni 2017 sampai September 2017. Dimana penelitian ini menggunakan data time series, dengan rentang waktu 10 tahun (2006-2015). Analisis data pada penelitian ini menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan 95,9% penyerapan investasi pemerintah pada sektor pertanian dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel pendapatan asli daerah,pertumbuhan ekspor-impor sektor pertanian, tingkat suku bunga riil, nilai tukar rupiah, investasi pemerintah pada tahun sebelumnya, dan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian. Dari faktor-faktor tersebut yang berpengaruh signifikan adalah Pendapatan asli daerah, pertumbuhan ekspor impor sektor pertanian, investasi pemrintah pada tahun sebelumnya dan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian.Kata Kunci : investasi pemerintah, sektor Pertanian, pertumbuhan

scholarly journals The Time - Varying Natural Rate of Interest and Its Fundamental Determinants: Time Series Evidence from Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 390
Author(s):  
Ilyas Siklar ◽  
Umit Yildiz ◽  
Sinan Cakan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Output Price ◽  
Natural Rate Of Interest ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Interest Rate

In this study, by estimating the natural rate of interest, its relationship with key macroeconomic variables is analyzed using the time series data obtained from Turkey. As a first step, together with the natural rate of interest, the potential levels of output, prices and foreign exchange rate are estimated by using the Kalman Filter algorithm and then the related gap levels of each variable representing the deviations from their potentials are determined. As a second step of the study, the effects of output, price and exchange rate gaps on the interest rate gap are analyzed by using cointegration and error correction methodologies and the causality relationship among variables are examined. The main conclusion of the current study is that there is significant causality relationship between the interest rate gap, output, price and exchange rate gaps.

scholarly journals An Empirical Assessment of the Effect of Taxes and Interest Rate on Economic Growth in Jordan: An Application of Dynamic Autoregressive-Distributed Lag

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Bashar Younis Alkhawaldeh ◽  
Suraya Mahmood ◽  
Aminu Hassan Jakada
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Ratios ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to examine the effect of taxes and interest rate on economic growth in Jordan by employing the time series data from 1970-2019. Furthermore, this study applies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, Saikonen and Lütkepohl and Zivot-Andrews test of unit root. Moreover, the study uses cointegration test developed by Gregory and Hansen to investigate the long-run relationship and the dynamic autoregressive distributive lags were used for the estimation result. The long run and short-run estimates reveal the positive and negative effects of taxes and the interest rate on economic growth respectively. While the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 2015 food crisis show a negative effect on economic growth. Based on the findings, the study recommends that the government authorities in Jordan should lower the interest rate that will increase the investment in order to have faster economic growth. The government should urgently plan to broaden the tax base to stimulate economic growth in Jordan. Regulators should encourage banks to start raising capital immediately to strengthen capital ratios well above prudential norms, and prepare schemes for public recapitalization and, where appropriate, public purchases of non-performing assets. The next policy fulfils the government's need to enhance agricultural productivity through better technology to ensure long-term food security and reduce poverty, as well as help to boost economic growth.

scholarly journals SECURITY EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 553-561
Author(s):  
Asen Ayange ◽  
Udo Emmanuel Samuel Abner ◽  
Ishaku Prince ◽  
Victor Ndubuaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Human Capital Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development

Purpose of study: This study examines security expenditure as an economically contributive or a non-contributive expenditure on human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. Methodology: Adopting the ARDL bounds test and Error Correction Model (ECM) on quarterly time-series data from January 2010-December 2018. Result: The findings and results indicate that security expenditure is economically a contributive expenditure. In the long-run a positive and significant impact on economic growth and human capital development, in the shot-run a negative relationship. The ECM model conveyed the speed of convergence from disequilibrium in the short-run back to long-run equilibrium by 86% quarterly. Implication/Application: The finding and results have critical implications for the government and policymakers, protection of life, properties, economic, and business assets positively stimulate economic growth. A unit increase in government expenditure on human capital development decreases insecurity and increase economic growth. Novelty/Originality of this study: Previous studies conducted globally and in Nigeria reported diverse results on the co-integrating relationship between security expenditure and economic growth, using diverse variables and annualized time series data predominantly. This study differs from the previous studies to adopt quarterly time-series data, the ARDL, and the ECM models as the major techniques of analysis along with a battery of pre-test and diagnostic tests.  

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN INFLATION TARGETING TERHADAP BEBERAPA VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yati Nuryati ◽  
Hermanto Siregar ◽  
Anny Ratnawati
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper discusses the effects of the inflation targeting framework on a number of macroeconomic variabels in Indonesia, especially after the enactment of Law No. 23/1999. The objectives of the paper are: (1) to describe the independence aspect of the inflation targeting policy; and (2) to highlight the effects of the inflation targeting on a set of main macroeconomic variables.The anaysis uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach, emploting the time series data during the periode of 1998:1 to 2003:6. The main results of this research are: (1) The Central Bank (BI) independence is not yet effective in the implementation of the inflation targeting; (2) the shock on the interest rate affects price level and the exchange rate trivially; and (2) the factors that influence price’s variability are the base money, the interest rate, and the exchange rate. In the long run, a shock to the base money is more important than to the interest rate and to the exchange rate. The study suggests to use base money as the policy instrument of the monetary policy, instead of the short term interest.Keywords: monetary policy, independence, inflation targeting, VARJEL Classification: C32, E31, E52

scholarly journals Good governance and crime rates in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 308-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Badariah H.Din ◽  
Baharom Abdul Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
And Control

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to relate the quality of governance with crime in Malaysia. The study also identifies the best good governance tool to fight against crime in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses time-series data on crime rates and six measures of governance: voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. In this study the authors employed the popular autoregressive distributed lagged modeling approach to estimate the long-run model of crime and governance. Findings – The authors test the hypothesis that good governance lowers crime rates (total crime, violent and property crimes). The results suggest a negative relationship between crime rates and good governance in Malaysia. This suggests that good governance reduces crime rates in Malaysia. Research limitations/implications – The limitations of this study is the short time-series used in the analysis which is from 1996 to 2009. Practical implications – This study provides evidence that the practice of good governance, for example, lower corruption, good policing and judicial system can mitigate crime in Malaysia. Social implications – The implementation of good governance will protect property right of individuals, business sector and the society as a whole, and this will enhance prosperity of a nation. Originality/value – This study provide the first empirical evidence that linking between crime and good governance in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Pendapatan , Jumlah Nasabah Dan Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Penyaluran Kredit Pt Pegadaian Cabang Kabupaten Jember Periode 2013 -2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-174
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Computer Software ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Number Of Customers

The research objective was to analyze the large number, number of customers, and interest rates on the loan distribution of PT Pegadaian Branch of Jember Regency.The type of data used in this study is secondary data consisting of time series data on income, number of customers obtained through the pawnshop office which is the object of research and interest rates for the period 2013-2017 obtained from BI which is the object of the research. The data is processed using computer software "SPSS 22" with multiple regression analysis methods. The Pawnshop Branch of Kabupaten Jember is very positive and significant towards lending to PT Pegadaian Branch of Kabupaten Jember, while the Interest Rate does not significantly influence the lending of PT Pegadaian Branch of Kabupaten Jember. Together, it focuses positively and significantly on the loan distribution of PT Pegadaian Branch of Jember Regency

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

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