scholarly journals The Relationship between Nominal Exchange Rate and Sectoral Output: An Emprical Analysis

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Ay ◽  
Şerife Özşahin ◽  
Mustafa Gerçeker
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Sectoral Output ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, it is investigated the existence of the long term relationship between nominal exchange rate and sectoral output for seven different sectors in Turkey by using control variables including money supply, total public expenditure, oil price and unemployment rate. For this purpose, possible relations are tried to be determined by using bound test and ARDL method for the period 1998 Q1-2011 Q3 with quarterly data. As a result of the bound test, it is achieved that there is a long term relationship in all sectors excluding construction. Based on this finding, it is estimated the long term coefficients and equations for the six sectors. These long term coefficients indicate that the rise in the TL/dollar nominal exchange rate affects sectoral output negatively in all sectors excluding finance because of the cost effects of imported input usage.

scholarly journals Does the Development of Bioenergy Exacerbate the Price Increase of Maize?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4845
Author(s):  
Zhengyi Dong
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between oil prices and food prices is complex, and maize is the most prominent example. Whether the development of bioenergy will exacerbate the price increase of maize caused by the increasing price of oil is a topic that is attracting great attention. This paper studies the relationship between oil prices and maize prices. First, the effects of the development of biomass energy on maize price in theory is analyzed by constructing a theoretical model that includes the effects of the cost channel and the demand channel, while setting the maize–oil price ratio as a trigger for the demand channel. Then, this paper empirically analyzes the price data. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show the effects of the demand channel in the long term; that is, the effect of the development of bioenergy on maize prices is weak, and maize prices did not increase sharply. The effect of the cost channel is the main cause of the increases in the price of maize and other foods.

Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-44
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.Design/methodology/approachThe monthly panel data used for analysis are at a disaggregated level, which cover around 100 products, encompassing all merchandize sectors for the period spanning from 2012:12 to 2017:11. To measure the exchange rate volatility, the authors use real as well as nominal exchange rate concepts and predict the volatility of exchange rate using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-based model. They use pooled mean group, mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimator that is suitable for the objectives and data frequency.FindingsThe empirical analysis indicates both short- and long-term negative effects of exchange rate variations on exporting. Specifically, in the long run, real exchange rate as well as nominal exchange rate volatility has significant effects on export performance, yet, the effects of uncertainty of nominal exchange rate is much severe and intense. In the short run, it is the nominal exchange rate uncertainty that hurts exports from India. Nevertheless, the short-run effect is much lesser than the long-run, supporting the argument that the short-term exchange rate risk can be hedged, at least partially, through financial instruments; however, uncertainty of the long-term horizon cannot be hedged easily and cost-effectively.Practical implicationsReducing uncertainty and attaining stability in exchange rate and price level should be an important policy objective in developing countries such as India to achieve higher export growth, both in the short and long run.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, this paper tests the relationship using micro-level data and uses advanced econometric techniques that are likely to provide more precise information regarding the association between exchange rate volatility and trade flows.

العلاقة التبادلية بين سعر الصرف وأسعار الأسهم دراسة تطبيقية في سوق اسطنبول للأوراق المالية للمدة 2005-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
سعدالله ألنعيمي
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Theoretical Interpretation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The study aims to analyzing the reciprocal relationship between the nominal exchange rate of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and the stock prices of the companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) expressed in the general market index for the period from 2005 to 2020 with 192 monthly observations, based on the traditional theory and the theory of portfolio balance model in theoretical interpretation for that relationship, aiming to identify the effect of the exchange rate on stock prices, as well as to analyze the causal relationship between those variables and to identify which of them is the cause or which is the result, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The research found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on stock prices in the long term, despite the emergence of the negative impact in the short term, but the long-term relationship has corrected the course of the short-term relationship with a time period not exceeding one month, in addition to proving that this relationship takes one direction. From the exchange rate towards stock prices, that is, the exchange rate is the reason and stock prices are the result, therefore the results of this research helps investors to predict future trends of stock prices depending on the exchange rate changes, and it also enables the companies, especially those with foreign transactions, to manage price risks the exchange rate in order to avoid its negative impact on its share price, as it represents an obstacle to achieving its main goal of maximizing the share price

Relationship-Specificity, Contract Enforceability, and Income Smoothing

2013 ◽  
Vol 88 (5) ◽  
pp. 1629-1656 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiwei Dou ◽  
Ole-Kristian Hope ◽  
Wayne B. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Contracts ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Income Smoothing ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
Specific Investments ◽  
Contractual Obligations ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRACT: Contracting parties, such as the firm and its supplier, have cost-reducing incentives to make investments that support the unique transactions between them. However, to the extent that one party may renege on its contractual obligations, the other party incurring the cost of the relationship-specific investment bears additional risk and is less willing to invest such that sub-optimal investment occurs. In countries where enforceability of explicit contracts is particularly weak, parties have incentives to signal their willingness to fulfill implicit claims and maintain long-term relationships. We predict that firms engage in income smoothing to send such a signal to their suppliers. Consistent with these expectations, we find that firms that both reside in countries with weak contract enforceability and operate in industries with a greater need for relationship-specific investments tend to smooth reported income more. We further decompose income smoothing into “informational” and “garbled” components and find that results are driven by the informational component of income smoothing. Our results support the important role that accruals play in providing information in the presence of incomplete contracts. JEL Classifications: F14, K12, L14, M41, M43

scholarly journals Are the Responses of Sectoral Energy Imports Asymmetric to Exchange Rate Volatilities in Pakistan? Evidence From Recent Foreign Exchange Regime

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Saqib ◽  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Alexey Mikhaylov ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Growing energy demand but stagnant production followed by volatile exchange rate leads Pakistan to energy imbalances and potential economic contraction. Yet, studies on sectoral energy imports are limited and inconclusive without accessing the asymmetric effect of currency fluctuations. We examine the impacts of Pakistani rupee volatility on monthly energy imports based on the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimations. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were used to conduct unit root testing, and the bound testing approach was used to examine the long-term cointegration. The long-run asymmetry was tested with the Wald test, and using the NARDL model, we examined both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on energy imports. The bound test was established and supported through ECMt−1 (t-test), cointegrating the relationship between exchange rate volatility and energy imports in a long term. Among others, both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects were found for crude oil, coal, electricity, and petroleum products. Rupee depreciation increased crude oil and electricity imports, while the appreciation effects were insignificant. Overall, the empirical assessment reveals that the foreign exchange volatility effect is sectoral specific and asymmetric in Pakistan. It offers new insights into re-strategizing the energy policy and refining the import substitution plan.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

Questioning the effect of the real exchange rate on growth: new evidence from Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-269
Author(s):  
Florencia Médici ◽  
Augustín Mario ◽  
Alejandro Fiorito
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
The Real ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
New Evidence

This study provides new evidence showing that the real exchange rate (RER) does not play an important role in the growth of Mexican GDP. Economic growth is not an automatically predetermined result of relative price correction, and it is important to consider distinctive aspects of national institutional arrangements (fiscal and monetary, for example) for understanding theoretical causality of demand. The empirical results show public expenditure is an overlooked variable in regressions where the exchange rate affects product growth. After incorporating public expenditure, the RER impact on growth becomes insignificant. For its part, public expenditure has a positive and significant effect on GDP in the long term. The RER does not lead to greater GDP since exports are not stimulated through price.

Tail events in the FX markets since 1740

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Abildgren
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Tail Events

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent of the so-called “small-sample problem” within quantitative exchange-rate risk management. Design/methodology/approach – The authors take a closer look at the frequency distribution of nominal price changes in the European foreign exchange markets. Findings – The analysis clearly illustrates the risk of seriously underestimating the probability and magnitude of tail events when frequency distributions are derived from fairly short data samples. Practical implications – The authors suggest that financial institutions and regulators should have an eye for the long-term historical perspective when designing sensitivity tests or “worst case” scenarios in relation to risk assessments and stress tests. Originality/value – The authors add to the literature by analysing the distribution of nominal exchange-rate fluctuations on the basis of a unique quarterly data set for ten European exchange-rate pairs covering a time span of 273 years constructed by the authors. To the best of the authors' knowledge this is the first study on nominal exchange-rate changes for a large number of exchange-rate pairs based on quarterly data spanning almost three centuries.

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