scholarly journals Forecasting the Price of Cayenne Pepper in the Surabaya City

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Joshua Eka Putra ◽  
Hani Perwitasari ◽  
Jamhari Jamhari
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
High Price ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Production Decisions ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
The Future

The price fluctuation of cayenne pepper in Indonesia is relatively high. Price fluctuations have an impact on consumers significantly when prices increase. This causes consumers to find it challenging to fulfil their daily needs for chilli. The effects of price fluctuations for farmers, namely: farmers have difficulty making production decisions. This causes the risk of cayenne pepper farming to become high. Predicting the price of cayenne pepper in the future is an effort to minimize the risk of cayenne pepper farming and industries requiring cayenne pepper. This study aims (1) to determine the forecasting model for cayenne pepper prices in Surabaya City (2) to predict the price of cayenne pepper during the period January 2020 - June 2020 in the Surabaya City using the ARIMA method. The analyzed data is cayenne pepper prices from July 2010 to December 2019 sourced from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). The analysis results show that the best ARIMA model in estimating the price of red chilli in Surabaya is ARIMA (1,0,1), with a MAPE of 3.84%. The forecast results for the price of cayenne pepper in Surabaya are proven and have decreased.

VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR SELAMA 2 TAHUN PEMERINTAHAN JOKOWI-JK: APLIKASI MODEL ARIMA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhona Shahreza
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Future Exchange

This article aims to analyze the movement of Rupiah to US Dollar rate and to create ARIMA forecasting model. daily Rupiah middle rate from M11 2014 to M06 2017 is taken from www.bi.go.id. Eviews 6 portable is implemented to analyze the data. The results show that the movement of Rupiah to US Dollar rate tends to fluctuate and ARIMA (1,0,0) model 〖kurs〗_t=13395.21+0.983776〖kurs〗_(t-1) indicates that Rupiah rate affected by previous day(t-1) rate and model can be used to forecast the future exchange rate. Keywords: ARIMA model, forecasting

scholarly journals Price stabilization as a factor of competitiveness of agriculture

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (No, 7) ◽  
pp. 281-284
Author(s):  
L. Grega
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Price Policy ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
High Price ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Price Stabilization ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Market Situation

Price fluctuations make agriculture a risky business. High price fluctuation of agricultural commodities may have through its income effect a very unfavourable impact on the economic situation of agricultural subjects. In finding corresponding instruments of agricultural policy to stabilize prices and incomes, it is necessary to distinguish between various types of price changes. However, important question for conception of adequate price policy is how to protect against high price fluctuations and not to restrain function of price as a signal about market situation. Application of partial equilibrium analysis to evaluate impact of price stabilization policies is an adequate method, especially if price changes in the market do not cause significant price fluctuation in other markets. Using this methodological approach is possible to prove that price stabilization brings for common net benefit consumers and producers. However in practical application some additional aspects must be taken into account if dealing with stabilization of agricultural products prices.

scholarly journals A statistical study of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-244
Author(s):  
Taha Radwan
Keyword(s):  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Statistical Study ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Accurate Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future

Abstract The spread of the COVID-19 started in Wuhan on December 31, 2019, and a powerful outbreak of the disease occurred there. According to the latest data, more than 165 million cases of COVID-19 infection have been detected in the world (last update May 19, 2021). In this paper, we propose a statistical study of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt. This study will help us to understand and study the evolution of this pandemic. Moreover, documenting of accurate data and taken policies in Egypt can help other countries to deal with this epidemic, and it will also be useful in the event that other similar viruses emerge in the future. We will apply a widely used model in order to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in the coming period, which is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. This model depicts the present behaviour of variables through linear relationship with their past values. The expected results will enable us to provide appropriate advice to decision-makers in Egypt on how to deal with this epidemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of Egg Price Fluctuation and Cause

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 581
Author(s):  
Wu Yuhuan ◽  
Qin Fu
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Laying Hen ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Cost Information ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Sudden Drop ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Protection Policy ◽  
Environmental Protection Policy ◽  
The Government

In 2017, egg price in China has experienced a lot of ups and downs, which has had a significant impact on the laying hen farmers and the enterprises and related enterprises. In the first half of 2017, egg price fell, which has dropped to a minimum of 4.02 yuan/kg, while the profits of egg producers were impaired and the profit of egg processing enterprises declined. Starting in July, egg price recovered, breaking a price of 5 yuan/kg. Egg price rose sharply in August, reaching an average of 8.53 yuan/kg. In October, egg price began to fall, with a price of 7 yuan/kg. In November, egg price began to rise, rising to 8 yuan/kg. The sudden drop of egg price greatly affects the income and culture psychology of laying hen farmers, and influences the development of the egg industry. This study is aimed at egg price and egg price fluctuations in 2017, and get two conclusions: From January to July, due to the amount of laying hens breeding, breeding cost, information technology and the government’s environmental protection policy and terminal weak consumer spending, egg price fell sharply; egg price rebounded in August and December, and the highest price was in September and gradually steadied. At the same time, this paper analyzes the causes of egg price fluctuation from two aspects of supply and demand, and puts forward some suggestions on how to deal with the price fluctuations from the two aspects of enterprise and laying hen breeding farmers.

scholarly journals Forecasting Wheat Production in Pakistan

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Falak Sher ◽  
Eatzaz Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Production Function ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
The Future ◽  
Out Of Sample

This study analyzes the future prospects of wheat production in Pakistan. Parameters of the forecasting model are obtained by estimating a Cobb-Douglas production function for wheat, while future values of various inputs are obtained as dynamic forecasts on the basis of separate ARIMA estimates for each input and for each province. Input forecasts and parameters of the wheat production function are then used to generate wheat forecasts. The results of the study show that the most important variables for predicting wheat production per hectare (in order of importance) are: lagged output, labor force, use of tractors, and sum of the rainfall in the months of November to March. The null hypotheses of common coefficients across provinces for most of the variables cannot be rejected, implying that all variables play the same role in wheat production in all the four provinces. Forecasting performance of the model based on out-of-sample forecasts for the period 2005-06 is highly satisfactory with 1.81% mean absolute error. The future forecasts for the period of 2007-15 show steady growth of 1.6%, indicating that Pakistan will face a slight shortage of wheat output in the future.

Cost Breakdown of 2.5D and 3D Packaging

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (DPC) ◽  
pp. 000324-000341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chet Palesko ◽  
Amy Palesko
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
High Price ◽  
Future Cost ◽  
The Future ◽  
3D Packaging ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Design Characteristics ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Cost

2.5D and 3D packaging can provide significant size and performance advantages over other packaging technologies. However, these advantages usually come at a high price. Since 2.5D and 3D packaging costs are significant, today they are only used if no other option can meet the product requirements, and most of these applications are relatively low volume. Products such as high end FPGAs, high performance GPUs, and high bandwidth memory are great applications but none have volume requirements close to mobile phones or tablets. Without the benefit of volume production, the cost of 2.5D and 3D packaging could stay high for a long time. In this paper, we will provide cost model results of a complete 2.5D and 3D manufacturing process. Each manufacturing activity will be included and the key cost drivers will be analyzed regarding future cost reductions. Expensive activities that are well down the learning curve (RDL creation, CMP, etc.) will probably not change much in the future. However, expensive activities that are new to this process (DRIE, temporary bond/debond, etc.) provide good opportunities for cost reduction. A variety of scenarios will be included to understand how design characteristics impact the cost. Understanding how and why the dominant cost components will change over time is critical to accurately predicting the future cost of 2.5D and 3D packaging.

Extreme Innovators and Innovators

2008 ◽  
pp. 213-228
Author(s):  
Toru Higuchi ◽  
Marvin Troutt
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
High Price ◽  
The Future ◽  
Strong Relation

In this chapter, the innovators and extreme innovators are discussed. These types of consumers are very important because they grow the infant market. The extreme innovators purchase an incomplete product at high price and contribute to the product development. Then the innovators purchase an immature product at a relatively high price and their reviews have great effects on the future diffusion. We also follow their second and later purchases because their behavior in repeat purchases has a strong relation with the alternation of product generations. In other words, they are the motive power for the alternation of products or the change to the alternative products.

scholarly journals Is China’s domestic agricultural market influenced by price fluctuations of the world agricultural commodities in the short-run?

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 578-589
Author(s):  
Y. Jiang ◽  
Y. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Price Change ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Agricultural Market ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run

After entry into the WTO, China’s domestic agricultural market is more and more closely integrated into the world market. Recently, a significant price fluctuation of agricultural commodities in the global market has increased concerns over its impact on the economic stability in those developing countries such as China, which has a large import and export of agricultural commodities every year. This paper attempts to study the short-term impact from price fluctuations of the world agricultural commodities upon the China’s domestic agricultural market by investigating the dynamic correlation between the price change in the world and Chinese market in the copula framework. Our findings suggest a weak but strengthening short-run impact with an asymmetric nature. At the same time, diversified short-run impacts are observed in four main agricultural commodity markets. Empirical results show that the world price fluctuation has a volatile but decreasing influence on the China’s rice market. This volatility of price impact is also observed in the wheat market but it has an escalating trend. The corn market experiences an intensified price shock with a distinct stage characteristic and the soybean market is under the strongest influence from the international price fluctuation.

The future of trucking technology in Brazil: results of a technology forecasting model

2013 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 319-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Dulce Gonçalves Maia ◽  
Márcio Almeida D'Agosto
Keyword(s):  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Technology Forecasting ◽  
The Future

The Forecasting of the Elevator Traffic Flow Time Series Based on ARIMA and GP

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 1466-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Fang Li ◽  
Qun Zong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Flow Time ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

As one of the conventional statistical methods, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Artificial neural network (ANN) can be utilized to construct more accurate forecasting model than ARIMA for nonlinear time series, but it is difficult to explain the meaning of the hidden layers of ANN and it does not produce a mathematical equation. In this study, by combining ARIMA with genetic programming (GP), a hybrid forecasting model will be used for elevator traffic flow time series which can improve the accuracy both the GP and the ARIMA forecasting models separately. At last, simulations are adopted to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed ARIMA-GP forecasting model.

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