Granger Causality Analysi̇s of Forei̇gn Trade İmpact on Economi̇c Growth and Some Socioeconomic Indicators: Case of Azerbaijan

The main purpose of the investigation is to define the existence of the causality relationship between foreign trade and some macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan. There was used OLS and cointegration methods, as well as Granger causality between these indicators. The main conclusion is that there is not a causality effect between import and GDP. As well as there is a causality effect between GDP and export. But there is not a strong causality effect between foreign trade openness, foreign trade freedom, and GDP. As well as the paper investigates the impact of import, export, and their annual changing on household income. For this purpose, the Dickey-Fuller test and Granger causality tests were applied. The authors come to the conclusion that there is no causal relationship between foreign trade indicators and poverty rate, but there is such a relationship between foreign trade indicators and household income.

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Granger Causality Analysis of Foreign Trade Impact on Economic Growth: Case of Azerbaijan

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ◽

10.37394/232015.2020.16.38 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Trade ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Causality Analysis ◽

Granger Causality Analysis ◽

Strong Causality ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

Causality Relationship ◽

Foreign Trade Activity

Main purpose of the investigation is to define existing of causality relationship between foreign trade activity of Azerbaijan and economic growth. There were used OLS method and cointegration between some macroeconomic indicators. Main conclusion is that there is not causality effect between import and GDP, but GDP growth is cause for changing import for lag=3. As well as there is causality effect between GDP growth and export. But there is not strong causality effect between foreign trade openness, foreign trade freedom and economic growth.

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TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

Journal of Business Economics and Management ◽

10.3846/16111699.2012.720587 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 188-205 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽

Wee-Yeap Lau

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Human Capital ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

Rolling Window ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

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Innovative Development of the Agricultural Sector in the Visegrad Group Countries

Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne ◽

10.2478/ers-2021-0001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Anastasiia Burdiuzha

Keyword(s):

Granger Causality ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Value Added ◽

Innovation Activity ◽

European Patent ◽

Innovative Development ◽

Causality Tests ◽

Granger Causality Tests ◽

The Impact ◽

Visegrad Group

Abstract Subject and purpose of work: Analysis of the innovative development trends of the agricultural sector in the Visegrad Group countries in 1995–2019. Investigation of the impact of innovation on value added to GDP by the sector and the patent activity. Materials and methods: Secondary data used in the current research were taken from Eurostat, World Bank and European Patent Office databases. They were analyzed by applying OLS models and Granger causality tests. Results: First, composition of R&D expenses in each Visegrad country was examined. Then its relationship to agricultural GDP and the number of the patents granted was tested by means of OLS models. Forecasting the relationship between variables examined was carried out by running Granger causality tests. Conclusions: There was a constant growth in agricultural innovation activity investment from 1995 to 2019. Nevertheless, the countries examined have not yet reached the EU’s objective concerning the R&D intensities. Innovation activity had a positive impact on the value added to GDP by agriculture and on the number of the patents granted.

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Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Greek Economy

International Journal of Accounting and Finance Studies ◽

10.22158/ijafs.v1n2p173 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 173

Author(s):

Pavlos Stamatiou ◽

Nikolaos Dritsakis

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Financial Development ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Cointegration Analysis ◽

Development Economic ◽

Causality Tests ◽

Greek Economy ◽

Causal Impact ◽

Using Data

This paper examines the relationship among financial development and economic growth, within a framework which also accounts trade openness, for the case of Greece using data covering the period 2001-2017. We investigate this relationship using the Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approach and the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), employing Granger causality technique, in order to explore the presence of causality among the variables. The results of cointegration analysis suggested that there is one cointegrated vector among the functions of financial development, economic growth and trade openness. Granger causality tests have shown that there are unidirectional causalities running from economic growth to financial development as well as from financial development to trade openness. The results support that financial development and trade openness do not have causal impact on economic growth in Greece, for the aforementioned period. On the other hand, economic growth has a causal impact on trade both directly and indirectly through financial development.

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Poverty In The United States: A Continuing And Growing Problem

Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER) ◽

10.19030/jber.v5i12.2610 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 5 (12) ◽

Author(s):

Berch Haroian ◽

Elizabeth C. Ekmekjian ◽

Elias C. Grivoyannis

Keyword(s):

Household Income ◽

Insurance Coverage ◽

Poverty Line ◽

Health Insurance Coverage ◽

The United States ◽

Poverty Rate ◽

Median Household Income ◽

The Past ◽

Area Of Interest ◽

The Impact

In recent years, the ability to deal with the problem of poverty in the US, in light of the new “Federalism,” is an area of interest to scholars. The poverty rate over the past 50 years has fluctuated from a high of 22.4% in 1959 to a low of 11.1% in 1973. Under George Bush’s presidency, we again see an increase in the poverty rate to 12.7% in 2004. This paper provides an overview of poverty data for the 21st century, by region, race and age.  A discussion and comparison of median household income follows. Facts and figures are then provided/compared, tying in health care issues to income levels and citizenship/ethnicity. A brief introduction of the various attempts over the past years by the federal government to reduce the proportion of the American population that falls below the poverty line follows.  This section merely provides a listing of programs designed to satisfy social and equity considerations.  This paper does not provide the reader with the impact of these programs on the economy; a brief mention is provided to generate further thought and discussion.  The paper concludes with a summary of key elements of the above issues. The sole purpose is to provide an overview of historical data as concerns poverty, median household income and health insurance coverage. The ability to deal with the problem of poverty in the U S, is left for another paper.

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The Impact of Trade Openness on Environmental Pollution

Regional Economic Integration and the Global Financial System - Advances in Finance, Accounting, and Economics ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-7308-3.ch017 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 221-232 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Murat Cetin ◽

Fahri Seker ◽

Hakan Cavlak

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Environmental Pollution ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Kuznets Curve ◽

Industrialized Countries ◽

Newly Industrialized Countries ◽

Long Run ◽

Causality Tests ◽

The Impact

This chapter analyzes the impact of trade openness on environmental pollution in the newly industrialized countries that have focused on trade over the period 1971-2010 by using recently developed panel unit root, cointegration, and causality tests. The results indicate a cointegration relationship between the variables. The results also show that trade openness increases carbon dioxide emissions with the elasticity of 0.53 and there is a Granger causality running from trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. These findings may provide some policy implications. Without taking into account impact of trade on pollutions, optimistic environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis would be invalid. Therefore, policymakers who decide on environment policies should pay attention to not only growth effects but also trade effects on pollutions. Future empirical analysis would expose the new evidences for governmental policies and environmental regulations to change these effects positively.

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Dynamics of Economic Growth, Investment and Trade Openness: Evidence from Bangladesh

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance ◽

10.1177/2277978717695150 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 82-104 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Champa Bati Dutta ◽

Mohammed Ziaul Haider ◽

Debasish Kumar Das

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Domestic Investment ◽

Causality Test ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Causality Tests

This article investigates the causal relationship among foreign direct investment, domestic investment, trade openness and economic growth in Bangladesh over the period 1976–2014. Unit root tests, cointegration methods and Granger causality tests in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework are used to investigate the relationships. The results of Granger causality test based on a stable VECM support a unidirectional causality running from foreign direct investment to growth, domestic investment to trade openness, growth to trade openness and bidirectional causality between domestic investment and growth and foreign direct investment and domestic investment. The results support the investment complementarities in Bangladesh. JEL Classification: E22, F1, O40

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Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Nepal

Butwal Campus Journal ◽

10.3126/bcj.v3i1.36493 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 1-20

Author(s):

Surya Bahadur Rana

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Trade ◽

Human Resource Development ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Advanced Country ◽

Long Run ◽

Study Results ◽

The Impact

This study examines the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Nepal over the period 1975-2019. Using ARDL bounds testing approach to co integration in the multivariate framework, the study results reveal that there exists a long-run relationship between Nepal’s foreign trade and economic growth over the study period. The long-run estimates of ARDL models how that the level of trade openness in Nepal predicts the rate of economic growth of the country positively and significantly in the long-run. The study also reports the positive and significant long run effect of investment level on growth in Nepal over the study period supporting the trade induced investment growth hypothesis. It postulates that trade openness affects economic growth through the channel of investment. The growth enhancing role of trade openness implies that Nepal Government should promote international trade by eliminating trade barriers and making the procedures of foreign trade simple and convenient. Besides, Nepal’s import policy should promote investment environment particularly in capital intensive sectors to take the advantage of technology transfer from technologically advanced country. Furthermore, Nepal should pay proper attention and come up with effective human resource development policy that can uplift human knowledge and skills to make use of technologies from developed countries.

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The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade (Export and Import) in Turkey

European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies ◽

10.26417/ejis-2019.v5i1-273 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 6

Author(s):

Mehman Karimov

Keyword(s):

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

International Trade ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Empirical Studies ◽

Causality Test ◽

Lag Selection ◽

Causality Tests ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

It is said that after globalization processes foreign direct investment start to influence trade moreover it is very complicated to deduce the relationship between trade and FDI according to theoretical analysis. Therefore, empirical studies showed that until the 1980s international trade generated direct investment but after 1980s FDI started to heavily influencing international trade. Also, results showed that the relationship can differ from one country to another. Thus, this paper is aimed to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment inflow on the macroeconomic variable as a Trade (Export, Import) in Turkey. The paper covers the time period from 1974 to 2017. The time series datasets, those are obtained from World Bank and IMF database are utilized in employed statistical models as ADF Unit Root, VAR lag selection, Johansen co-integration, and the Granger Causality tests, to fulfill empirical part of the paper. Based on results, it was confirmed that there was the presence of the co-integration between analyzed series. Additionally, results of Granger causality test showed that there is unidirectional causality from Export and Import to FDI.

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Impact of FDI on Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies ◽

10.24311/jabes/2014.221.01 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 221 ◽

pp. 65-84

Author(s):

THÀNH SỬ ĐÌNH ◽

Tiến Nguyễn Minh

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Human Resources ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Private Investment ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Controversial Issue ◽

Causality Test ◽

The Impact

The impact of foreign direct imvestment (FDI) on economic growth is still a highly controversial issue as remarked by many researchers (Aitken et al.; 1997; Carkovic & Levine, 2002; Bende-Nabende et al., 2003; Durham, 2004; and Hsiao, 2006). Using a panel dataset of 43 provinces in Vietnam during 1997 – 2012 and the Granger causality test by Arellano-Bond GMM and PMG estimation, this paper shows that: (i) FDI does Granger-cause private investment, human resources, taxation, infrastructure, trade openness and local technology; (ii) FDI has a positive impacts on provincial economic growth in the long term; and (iii) FDI flows vary over provinces due to differences in geographical conditions and level of development.

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