Patternising Students’ performance in post graduate examinations using bayesian inference methods – a case study

Author(s):  
Y. N. Ananth ◽  
N. S. Narahari
2021 ◽  
pp. 026638212098473
Author(s):  
Jela Webb

Disruption is the by-word for 2020. Across the globe organisations have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns, which accelerated new ways of working and learning. In this article, I share my experience of transitioning from a face-to-face model of delivering post-graduate education to a remote learning model. I reflect on how the corporate sector might learn from my experience as it considers re-skilling and up-skilling the workforce to meet the demands faced by a changing jobs landscape.


Phytotaxa ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 511 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
XIANG MA ◽  
CHANG-LIN ZHAO

Two new species, Xylodon bambusinus and X. xinpingensis, are proposed based on morphological and molecular evidences. Both species share the annual growth habit, resupinate basidiomata and monomitic hyphal system with clamped, colorless generative hyphae, smooth, thin-walled basidiospores, but X. bambusinus is characterized by the smooth to tuberculate hymenial surface, presence of capitate and fusiform cystidia, broad ellipsoid basidiospores, while X. xinpingensis by the reticulate hymenophore with cream hymenial surface, and subglobose basidiospores (4.5–6 × 3.5–5 µm). Sequences of ITS and LSU nrRNA gene regions of the studied samples were generated, and phylogenetic analyses were performed with maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference methods. The phylogenetic analyses based on molecular data of ITS and ITS+nLSU sequences showed that X. bambusinus was sister to X. subclavatus, while X. xinpingensis grouped with X. astrocystidiatus and X. paradoxus. The nLSU dataset revealed that X. bambusinus grouped with X. asperus and X. brevisetus with lower supports, and that X. xinpingensis grouped with X. astrocystidiatus and X. paradoxus and then with X. rimosissimus without supports. Both morphological and molecular evidences confirmed the placement of two new species in Xylodon. Description and figures from the new species and a key to the known species of Xylodon from China are presented.


2018 ◽  
Vol 204 ◽  
pp. 07005
Author(s):  
Iman Setyoaji

Remanufacturing processes face uncertainty in the quality of the items being returned by customers, this significant variability complicates the control of inventories. Demands can be satisfied by procured new items, but also by remanufactured returned items. This paper develops dynamic lot sizing model for remanufacturing industry under uncertainty of returned items and proposes Bayesian Inference to estimate the replacement ratio of returned items that used to determine those lot sizes for new items. The objective of this paper is to minimize the total cost composed of holding cost and set-ups cost. A numerical example is provided based on case study. The result shows that total cost is reduced to be 45%.


2022 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
pp. 105586
Author(s):  
Marion Gödel ◽  
Nikolai Bode ◽  
Gerta Köster ◽  
Hans-Joachim Bungartz

Biomolecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1744
Author(s):  
Stefania Pilati ◽  
Giulia Malacarne ◽  
David Navarro-Payá ◽  
Gabriele Tomè ◽  
Laura Riscica ◽  
...  

The abundance of transcriptomic data and the development of causal inference methods have paved the way for gene network analyses in grapevine. Vitis OneGenE is a transcriptomic data mining tool that finds direct correlations between genes, thus producing association networks. As a proof of concept, the stilbene synthase gene regulatory network obtained with OneGenE has been compared with published co-expression analysis and experimental data, including cistrome data for MYB stilbenoid regulators. As a case study, the two secondary metabolism pathways of stilbenoids and lignin synthesis were explored. Several isoforms of laccase, peroxidase, and dirigent protein genes, putatively involved in the final oxidative oligomerization steps, were identified as specifically belonging to either one of these pathways. Manual curation of the predicted sequences exploiting the last available genome assembly, and the integration of phylogenetic and OneGenE analyses, identified a group of laccases exclusively present in grapevine and related to stilbenoids. Here we show how network analysis by OneGenE can accelerate knowledge discovery by suggesting new candidates for functional characterization and application in breeding programs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 564
Author(s):  
Renata Cristina Mafra ◽  
Mayara Maezano Faita Pinheiro ◽  
Rejane Ennes Cicerelli ◽  
Lucas Prado Osco ◽  
Marcelo Rodrigo Alves ◽  
...  

O processo erosivo é um fenômeno que acontece devido às condições climáticas ou uso inadequado da terra. O mapeamento dos níveis de vulnerabilidade à erosão de uma área pode ocorrer usando diferentes modelos de inferência geográfica. No entanto, definir o método apropriado é ainda uma questão a ser respondida. Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem de validação de mapa de vulnerabilidade à erosão elaborado por diferentes métodos de inferência. Como estudo de caso, adotou-se uma bacia hidrográfica e considerou-se os seguintes critérios: geomorfologia, pedologia, declividade, densidade de drenagem e cobertura da terra. Dentre os métodos testados tem-se: Combinação Linear Ponderada (CLP) e três operadores Fuzzy: soma algébrica, produto algébrico e gamma, variando o expoente “γ” entre os valores 0,4; 0,6 e 0,8. Os pesos dos critérios foram definidos com base no Processo Analítico Hierárquico. A validação dos mapas ocorreu usando 1902 pontos, sendo 951 pontos de erosão na área, definidos com base em imagens do Google Earth Pro, e 951 pontos sem erosão, gerados aleatoriamente no QGIS 3.8. O modelo de regressão logística foi usado parar comparar o desempenho de cada mapa ao apontar as áreas com maior e menor grau de vulnerabilidade. A melhor modelagem foi alcançada com o operador Fuzzy gamma quando parametrizado com γ = 0,6. Embora o CLP seja a abordagem recorrente em estudos ambientais envolvendo inferência geográfica, nossos resultados demostram que outros operadores podem produzir resultados mais próximos aos encontrados com a realidade observada em campo.  Machine learning erosion and vulnerability map validation A B S T R A C TErosion is a natural phenomenon that happens in all ecosystems, whether due to weather conditions or inappropriate land use. Mapping the erosion vulnerability levels of an area can occur using different methods of geographic inference. However, defining the appropriate method is still a question to be answered. This paper presents an erosion vulnerability map validation approach elaborated by different inference methods. As a case study, a watershed was adopted and the following criteria were considered: geomorphology, pedology, slope, drainage density and land cover. Among the tested methods are: Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and three Fuzzy operators: algebraic sum, algebraic product and gamma, varying the exponent “γ” between the values 0.4; 0.6 and 0.8. The weights of the criteria were defined based on the Hierarchical Analytical Process. The validation of the maps took place using 1902 points, with 951 erosion points in the area defined based on Google Earth Pro images and 951 points without erosion randomly generated in QGIS 3.8. The logistic regression model was used to compare the performance of each map by pointing out the areas with the highest and lowest degree of vulnerability. The best modeling was achieved with the Fuzzy gamma operator when parameterized with γ = 0.6. Although WLC is the recurring approach in environmental studies involving geographic inference, our results show that other operators can produce results closer to those encountered with the reality observed in the field.Keywords: Geographical inference; multicriteria analysis; data validation; environmental impact.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0258968
Author(s):  
Patrick Pietzonka ◽  
Erik Brorson ◽  
William Bankes ◽  
Michael E. Cates ◽  
Robert L. Jack ◽  
...  

We apply Bayesian inference methods to a suite of distinct compartmental models of generalised SEIR type, in which diagnosis and quarantine are included via extra compartments. We investigate the evidence for a change in lethality of COVID-19 in late autumn 2020 in the UK, using age-structured, weekly national aggregate data for cases and mortalities. Models that allow a (step-like or graded) change in infection fatality rate (IFR) have consistently higher model evidence than those without. Moreover, they all infer a close to two-fold increase in IFR. This value lies well above most previously available estimates. However, the same models consistently infer that, most probably, the increase in IFR preceded the time window during which variant B.1.1.7 (alpha) became the dominant strain in the UK. Therefore, according to our models, the caseload and mortality data do not offer unequivocal evidence for higher lethality of a new variant. We compare these results for the UK with similar models for Germany and France, which also show increases in inferred IFR during the same period, despite the even later arrival of new variants in those countries. We argue that while the new variant(s) may be one contributing cause of a large increase in IFR in the UK in autumn 2020, other factors, such as seasonality, or pressure on health services, are likely to also have contributed.


2010 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 531-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Buerki ◽  
Félix Forest ◽  
Nadir Alvarez ◽  
Johan A. A. Nylander ◽  
Nils Arrigo ◽  
...  

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