Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Heloderma alvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae)

Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi Bogert & Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H. alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m2) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species’ distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m2) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H. alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.

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Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.12001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e12001

Author(s):

Jinbo Fu ◽

Linlin Zhao ◽

Changdong Liu ◽

Bin Sun

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ensemble Model ◽

Public Attention ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Sousa Chinensis ◽

The Impact

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

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Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040429 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 429

Author(s):

Yadong Xu ◽

Yi Huang ◽

Huiru Zhao ◽

Meiling Yang ◽

Yuqi Zhuang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Variables ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Mountainous Area ◽

The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

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Climate change winner in the deep sea? Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii

Marine Ecology Progress Series ◽

10.3354/meps13566 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 657 ◽

pp. 1-23

Author(s):

L Beazley ◽

E Kenchington ◽

FJ Murillo ◽

D Brickman ◽

Z Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Deep Water ◽

Additive Models ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Scotian Shelf ◽

Worst Case ◽

Glass Sponge ◽

Core Habitat ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Shallow-water sponges are often cited as being ‘climate change winners’ due to their resiliency against climate change effects compared to other benthic taxa. However, little is known of the impacts of climate change on deep-water sponges. The deep-water glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii is distributed off eastern North America, forming dense sponge grounds with enhanced biodiversity on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada. While the strong natural environmental variability that characterizes these sponge grounds suggests this species is resilient to a changing environment, its physiological limitations remain unknown, and the impact of more persistent anthropogenic climate change on its distribution has never been assessed. We used Random Forest and generalized additive models to project the distribution of V. pourtalesii in the northwest Atlantic using environmental conditions simulated under moderate and worst-case CO2 emission scenarios. Under future (2046-2065) climate change, the suitable habitat of V. pourtalesii will increase up to 4 times its present-day size and shift into deeper waters and higher latitudes, particularly in its northern range where ocean warming will serve to improve the habitat surrounding this originally sub-tropical species. However, not all areas projected as suitable habitat in the future will realistically be populated, and the reduced likelihood of occurrence in its core habitat on the Scotian Shelf suggests that the existing Vazella sponge grounds may be negatively impacted. An effective monitoring programme will require tracking changes in the density and distribution of V. pourtalesii at the margins between core habitat and where losses and gains were projected.

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Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for Dactylorhiza hatagirea Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate

Plants ◽

10.3390/plants10030467 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 467

Author(s):

Bikram Shrestha ◽

Spyros Tsiftsis ◽

Deep Jyoti Chapagain ◽

Chhatra Khadka ◽

Prakash Bhattarai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Change Models ◽

Gas Concentration ◽

Wild Fauna ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Increasing Temperature

Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

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Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking

10.5194/wcd-2021-47 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sara Bacer ◽

Fatima Jomaa ◽

Julien Beaumet ◽

Hubert Gallée ◽

Enzo Le Bouëdec ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Atmospheric Blocking ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

The Impact ◽

Type Decomposition

Abstract. We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe focusing on the frequency, duration, and extension of blocking events. These events are identified via the weather type decomposition (WTD) methodology applied on the output of climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical simulations as well as two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are considered. The models are evaluated against the reanalysis and only a subset of climate models, which better represent the blocking weather regime in the recent-past climate, is considered for the analysis. We find that frequency and duration of blocking events remain relatively stationary over the 21st century. In order to quantify the extension of blocking events, we define a new methodology which relies on the WTD to identify blocking events. We show that the results are in agreement with previous studies that define blocking events with blocking indexes. We find that blocking extension will increase, especially in the worst-case scenario, due to a pressure increase driven by a thermodynamical warming during blocking events rather than atmospheric circulation changes.

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The Potential Distribution of Juniperus rigida Sieb. et Zucc. Vary Diversely in China under the Stringent and High GHG Emission Scenarios Combined Bioclimatic, Soil, and Topographic Factors

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12091140 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 1140

Author(s):

Zhenjiang Lv ◽

Dengwu Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Changbai Mountain ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Mongolian Plateau ◽

Plateau Region ◽

Potential Habitats ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact

Global warming poses an enormous threat to particular species with shifts to their suitable habitat. Juniperus rigida Sieb. et Zucc., an endemic species to East Asia and a pioneer species in the Loess plateau region, is endangered because of the shrinking and scattered habitat threatened by climate change. For the sake of analyzing the impact of climate warming on its possible habitat, we herein projected the current and future potential habitats of J. rigida in China and comparatively analyzed the ecological habitat changes in three main distribution regions. There were 110 specimen records of J. rigida collected across China and 22 environmental datasets, including bioclimatic variables and soil and topographical factors, selected by the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. The MaxEnt model based on specimen presence and environmental factors was used for projecting the potential habitats of J. rigida in China in the 2050s and the 2070s of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results indicated an excellence model performance with the average value of the area under curve (AUC) is 0.928. The mean temperature of the driest quarter (MTDq) and the temperature annual range (TAR) provided important contributions to the potential distribution of J. rigida. There were three main distribution areas in China, the Xinjiang region, the Loess-Inner Mongolian Plateau region, and the Changbai Mountain region. The distribution increased overall in area under RCP 2.6 and decreased for RCP 8.5. The mean altitude of the core distribution shifted upward in general under both scenarios. The Loess–Inner Mongolian Plateau region is the biggest distribution, encompassing ca. 61.39 × 104 km2 (86.87 × 104 km2 in China). The region threatened most by climate change is located in the Changbai Mountain distribution, with the centroid of the cord suitable habitat migrating southwest about 227.47 and 260.32 km under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 by the 2070s. In summary, these findings provided a well-grounded understanding of the effect of climate change on ecological distribution and furnished theory evidence for the protection, management, and sustainable use of J. rigida.

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

10.1101/2020.05.04.076562 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ayush Adhikari ◽

Deep Narayan Shah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Endangered Species ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Rhinoceros Unicornis ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact

AbstractAbrupt change in climate or simply termed as climate change is considered to be one of the major challenges in biodiversity. Change in climate has impacted many species around the world, particularly threatened species like One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis). Rhinoceros unicornis is placed as an endangered species by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Being an endangered species, studies regarding the impact of climate on the distribution of Rhinoceros unicornis is very rare in Nepal. Thus, the present study focuses on identifying the potential impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in Nepal using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). For this, we used the present climatic scenarios and two greenhouse concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two different time periods (2050 and 2070) using different bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated the loose of the suitable habitat of Rhincoeros unicornis by 51.87% and 56.54% in RCP 4.5 for year 2050 and 2070 respectively. Under RCP 8.5 for year 2050 and 2070, the model demonstrated the loose of present suitable habitat by 54.25% and 49.51% respectively. Likewise, our result also predicted elevation as an important bioclimatic variable. This study would provide an information to the policy makers, conservationist and government officer of Nepal for the management and protection of habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in present and future climatic context.

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Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems

F1000Research ◽

10.12688/f1000research.19540.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. 978

Author(s):

Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi ◽

Remya K. ◽

Mohamed T. Mousa ◽

Shima K. Al-Badi ◽

Salama K. Al Kaabi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Arid Ecosystems ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km2 is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km2 and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km2 under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.

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The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽

10.3390/plants10010084 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 84

Author(s):

Huanchu Liu ◽

Hans Jacquemyn ◽

Xingyuan He ◽

Wei Chen ◽

Yanqing Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northeast China ◽

Habitat Destruction ◽

Changbai Mountains ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Human Pressure ◽

Terrestrial Orchids ◽

The Future ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

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Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽

10.3390/biology10010063 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 63

Author(s):

Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽

Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽

Walaa A. Hassan ◽

Ali El-Keblawy ◽

Kaiwen Pan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Extinction Risk ◽

In Situ Conservation ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Conservation Assessment ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Area Of Occupancy ◽

Annual Range ◽

The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

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