Potential Impact of Climate Change on One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

Rhinoceros Unicornis ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Potential Impact ◽

AbstractAbrupt change in climate or simply termed as climate change is considered to be one of the major challenges in biodiversity. Change in climate has impacted many species around the world, particularly threatened species like One-Horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis). Rhinoceros unicornis is placed as an endangered species by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Being an endangered species, studies regarding the impact of climate on the distribution of Rhinoceros unicornis is very rare in Nepal. Thus, the present study focuses on identifying the potential impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in Nepal using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). For this, we used the present climatic scenarios and two greenhouse concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two different time periods (2050 and 2070) using different bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated the loose of the suitable habitat of Rhincoeros unicornis by 51.87% and 56.54% in RCP 4.5 for year 2050 and 2070 respectively. Under RCP 8.5 for year 2050 and 2070, the model demonstrated the loose of present suitable habitat by 54.25% and 49.51% respectively. Likewise, our result also predicted elevation as an important bioclimatic variable. This study would provide an information to the policy makers, conservationist and government officer of Nepal for the management and protection of habitat of Rhinoceros unicornis in present and future climatic context.

Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9010016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Suzanna Meeussen ◽

Anouschka Hof

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Geographic Range ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Area ◽

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

International Community Law Review ◽

10.1163/18719732-12341465 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 23 (2-3) ◽

pp. 115-132

Author(s):

Łukasz Kułaga

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

International Law ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

The State ◽

Fundamental Change ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

Sensitivity of wheat yields to rise in growing season temperature: Evidences from panel data analysis

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v22i2.167 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 191-197

Author(s):

K. PHILIP ◽

S.S. ASHA DEVI ◽

G.K. JHA ◽

B.M.K. RAJU ◽

B. SEN ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Panel Data ◽

Growing Season ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Data Set ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Wide Range ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The impact of climate change on agriculture is well studied yet there is scope for improvement as crop specific and location specific impacts need to be assessed realistically to frame adaptation and mitigation strategies to lessen the adverse effects of climate change. Many researchers have tried to estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using indirect crop simulation modeling techniques. Here, this study estimated the potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using a crop specific panel data set from 1981 to 2010,for six major wheat producing states. The study revealed that 1°C increase in average maximum temperature during the growing season reduces wheat yield by 3 percent. Major share of wheat growth and yield (79%) is attributed to increase in usage of physical inputs specifically fertilizers, machine labour and human labour. The estimated impact was lesser than previously reported studies due to the inclusion of wide range of short-term adaptation strategies to climate change. The results reiterate the necessity of including confluent factors like physical inputs while investigating the impact of climate factors on crop yields.

Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.12001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e12001

Author(s):

Jinbo Fu ◽

Linlin Zhao ◽

Changdong Liu ◽

Bin Sun

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ensemble Model ◽

Public Attention ◽

Sousa Chinensis ◽

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PONNANIYAR BASIN OF TAMIL NADU BASED ON REGCM 4.4 SIMULATIONS

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w6-21-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽

pp. 21-24

Author(s):

V. Guhan ◽

V. Geethalakshmi ◽

R. Jagannathan ◽

S. Panneerselvam ◽

K. Bhuvaneswari

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tamil Nadu ◽

Crop Production ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Tomato Yield ◽

Aquacrop Model ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change induced extreme weather events such as drought and flood condition are likely to become more common and associated impacts on crop production will be more without proper irrigation planning. The present investigation was undertaken for assessing the impact of Climate change on tomato yield and water use efficiency (WUE) using AquaCrop model and RegCM 4.4 simulations. The water driven AquaCrop model was validated based on observation of field experiment conducted with four different dates of sowing (1st November, 15th November, 1st December, 15th December) at Ponnaniyar basin, Tiruchirappalli. Validation of AquaCrop model indicated the capability of AquaCrop in predicting tomato yield, biomass and WUE close to the observed data. Seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures over Tiruchirappalli are projected to increase in the mid-century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.7&thinsp;&deg;C/2.5&thinsp;&deg;C in SWM and 1.9&thinsp;&deg;C/2.9&thinsp;&deg;C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Minimum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.6&thinsp;&deg;C/2.2&thinsp;&deg;C in SWM and 1.6&thinsp;&deg;C/2.1&thinsp;&deg;C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Seasonal rainfall over Tiruchirappalli is expected to decrease with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios with different magnitude. Rainfall is expected to change to the tune of &minus;1/&minus;11 per cent in SWM and &minus;2/&minus;14 per cent in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways.</p>

Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

Applied Water Science ◽

10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Lotfirad ◽

Arash Adib ◽

Jaber Salehpoor ◽

Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽

Ozgur Kisi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Downward Trend ◽

Future Period ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

Keeping up with the neighbours: using a genetic measurement of dispersal and species distribution modelling to assess the impact of climate change on an A ustralian arid zone gecko ( G ehyra variegata )

Diversity and Distributions ◽

10.1111/ddi.12071 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 19 (8) ◽

pp. 964-976 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Paul E. Duckett ◽

Peter D. Wilson ◽

Adam J. Stow

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Arid Zone ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Distribution Modelling ◽

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007819500155 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (04) ◽

pp. 1950015

Author(s):

BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽

AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽

NAGA COULIBALY ◽

CALVIN ATEWAMBA

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Crop Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Economic Modeling ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Potential Impact ◽

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

Forward Planning for Scottish Gardens in the Face of Climate Change

Sibbaldia: the International Journal of Botanic Garden Horticulture ◽

10.24823/sibbaldia.2015.79 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 131-144

Author(s):

Chris Smart ◽

Alan Elliott

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Distribution Data ◽

Climate Envelope ◽

The Face ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Climate Envelope Modelling ◽

Partial Correction ◽

Selection Of

The impact of climate change and its effects on gardens has so far received limited academic attention. This paper offers a partial correction of this imbalance by investigating the potential impact of climate change on a selection of common Scottish garden plants. A climate envelope modelling approach was taken, whereby wild species distribution data were used to build climate ‘envelopes’ or descriptions of the native climates of selected species. The envelope models were projected onto future climate scenarios for Scotland, allowing observations to be made regarding the climatic suitability of Scotland, both currently and into the future, for each of the plants studied. The models and predictions for four species are described here along with strengths and limitations of the methodology. It is suggested that this approach, or variations of it, could become a useful tool in forward planning for gardens in assisting efforts to mitigate the effect of climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability in a Trans-Boundary Basin in West Africa: Case of Sassandra

10.20944/preprints201801.0151.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Naga Coulibaly ◽

Talnan Jean Honoré Coulibaly ◽

Ziyanda Mpakama ◽

Issiaka Savané

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

West Africa ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Abdus Salam ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact ◽

Annual Discharge

In the context of climate change in West Africa characterized by a reduction of precipitation, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources from now to the end of the 21st century in the transboundary watershed of the Sassandra River shared by Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire. Historical and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) data were projected with the model. The Abdus Salam ICTP RegCM4 was used. The hydrological modeling of the river basin was carried out with the conceptual hydrological model, GR2M. This model is a monthly time steps model that allows the assessment of the discharge of the Sassandra River for each climate scenario according to the 2030 (2021–2040), 2050 (2041–2060), 2070 (2061–2080), and 2090 (2081–2100) horizons. The results showed a reduction of the annual discharge when compared to the baseline (1961–1980). For the RCP 4.5, the observed values went from –1.2% in 2030 to –2.3% in 2070 and rose to –2.1% in 2090. Concerning the RCP 8.5, we saw a variation from –4.2% to –7.9% in the 2030 and 2090 horizons, respectively. With the general decrease of rainfall in West Africa, it is appropriate to assess the impact on water resources on the largest rivers (Niger, Gambia, and Senegal) that irrigate the Sahelo-Saharian zone.