scholarly journals Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for Dactylorhiza hatagirea Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 467
Author(s):  
Bikram Shrestha ◽  
Spyros Tsiftsis ◽  
Deep Jyoti Chapagain ◽  
Chhatra Khadka ◽  
Prakash Bhattarai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Gas Concentration ◽  
Wild Fauna ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Heloderma alvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae)

ZooKeys ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1070 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Aarón Gómez-Cruz ◽  
Nancy G. Santos-Hernández ◽  
José Alberto Cruz ◽  
Daniel Ariano-Sánchez ◽  
Christian Ruiz-Castillejos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Human Footprint ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Impact

Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi Bogert & Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H. alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m2) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species’ distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m2) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H. alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Huanchu Liu ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn ◽  
Xingyuan He ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Yanqing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Changbai Mountains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Terrestrial Orchids ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

scholarly journals Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1604
Author(s):  
Sun Hee Hong ◽  
Yong Ho Lee ◽  
Gaeun Lee ◽  
Do-Hun Lee ◽  
Pradeep Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Invasive Weeds ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Control And Management

Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km2, and 990.29 km2, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

Variations of disinfection by-product levels in small drinking water utilities according to climate change scenarios: a first assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Delpla ◽  
A. Scheili ◽  
S. Guilherme ◽  
G. Cool ◽  
M. J. Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Treatment ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Small Water ◽  
Water Treatment Process

In Québec, Canada, shifts in climate patterns (i.e., rainfall increase) could have consequences on source water quality due to the intensification of surface/groundwater runoff contamination events, leading to a decline in drinking water treatment efficiency and ultimately disinfection by-products (DBPs) formation following treatment. To assess the impacts of climate change (CC) scenarios on DBP formation, a suite of models linking climate to DBPs was used. This study applies three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for three 30-year horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080) in order to produce inputs to test several DBP models (total trihalomethanes (TTHMs), haloacetic acids and haloacetonitriles). An annual increase is estimated for all DBPs for each CC scenario and horizon. The highest seasonal increases were estimated for winter for all DBP groups or species. In the worst-case scenario (A2-2080), TTHMs could be affected more particularly during winter (+34.0%), followed by spring (+16.1%) and fall (+4.4%), whereas summer concentrations would remain stable (−0.3 to +0.4%). Potentially, small water utilities applying only a disinfection step could be more affected by rising TTHMs concentrations associated with CC than those having implemented a complete water treatment process (coagulation–flocculation, filtration and disinfection) with +13.6% and +8.2% increases respectively (A2-2080).

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1803
Author(s):  
Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Precipitation and temperature around the world are expected to be altered by climate change. This will cause regional alterations to the hydrological cycle. For proper water management, anticipating these changes is necessary. In this study, the basin of Lake Erken (Sweden) was simulated with the recently released software SWAT+ to study such alterations in a short (2026–2050), medium (2051–2075) and long (2076–2100) period, under two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Seven global climate models from the latest projections of future climates that are available (CIMP 6) were compared and ensembled. A bias-correction of the models’ data was performed with five different methods to select the most appropriate one. Results showed that the temperature is expected to increase in the future from 2 to 4 °C, and precipitation from 6% to 20%, depending on the scenario. As a result, water discharge would also increase by about 18% in the best-case scenario and by 50% in the worst-case scenario, and the surface runoff would increase between 5% and 30%. The floods and torrential precipitations would also increase in the basin. This trend could lead to soil impoverishment and reduced water availability in the basin, which could damage the watershed’s forests. In addition, rising temperatures would result in a 65% reduction in the snow water equivalent at best and 92% at worst.

scholarly journals The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Kaufman ◽  
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera ◽  
Vicky Tam ◽  
Lihai Song ◽  
Ethan Coffel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Kidney Stone ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997–2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered—one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085–89 (vs. 2010–2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.

scholarly journals Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Hempel ◽  
Christoph Menz ◽  
Severino Pinto ◽  
Elena Galán ◽  
David Janke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Dairy Cattle ◽  
Animal Welfare ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Milk Yield ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Gas Concentration ◽  
Cattle Husbandry

Abstract. In the last decades, an exceptional global warming trend was observed. Along with the temperature increase, modifications in the humidity and wind regime amplify the regional and local impacts on livestock husbandry. Direct impacts include the occurrence of climatic stress conditions. In Europe, cows are economically highly relevant and are mainly kept in naturally ventilated buildings that are most susceptible to climate change. The high-yielding cows are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Modifications in housing management are the main measures taken to improve the ability of livestock to cope with these conditions. Measures are, however, typically taken in direct reaction to uncomfortable conditions instead of in anticipation of a long term risk for climatic stress. Moreover, measures that balance welfare, environmental and economic issues are barely investigated in the context of climate change and are thus almost not available for commercial farms. Quantitative analysis of the climate change impacts on the animal welfare and linked economic and environmental factors are rare. Therefore, we used a numerical modeling approach to estimate the future heat stress risk in such dairy cattle husbandry systems. The indoor climate was monitored inside three reference barns in Central Europe and in the Mediterranean region. An artificial neuronal network (ANN) was trained to relate the outdoor weather conditions provided by official meteorological weather stations to the measured indoor microclimate. Subsequently, this ANN model was driven by an ensemble of regional climate model projections with three different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. For the evaluation of the heat stress risk, we considered the amount and duration of heat stress events. Based on the changes of the heat stress events various economic and environmental impacts were estimated. We found that the impacts of the projected increase of heat stress risk vary dependent on the region respectively the barn, the climate model and the assumed greenhouse gas concentration. There was an overall increasing trend in number and duration of heat stress events. At the end of the century, the number of annual stress events can be expected to increase by up to 2000 hours while the average duration of the events increases by up to 22 h compared to the end of the last century. This implies strong impacts on economics, environment and animal welfare and an urgent need for mid-term adaptation strategies. We anticipated that up to one tenth of all hours of a year respectively one third of all days will be classified as critical heat stress conditions. Due to heat stress, milk yield may decrease by about 3.5 % relative to the present European milk yield and farmers may expect financial losses in the summer season of about 6.6 % of their monthly income. In addition, an increasing demand for emission reduction measures must be expected, as an emission increase of about 16 Gg ammonia and 0.1 Gg methane per year can be expected under the anticipated heat stress conditions. The cattle respiration rate increases by up to 60 % and the standing time may be prolonged by 1 h. This promotes health issues and increases the probability of medical treatments. The various impacts imply feedback loops in the climate system which are presently underexplored. Hence, future in-depth studies on the different impacts and adaptation options at different stress levels are highly recommended.

scholarly journals Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Oryx ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Shaun W. Molloy ◽  
Allan H. Burbidge ◽  
Sarah Comer ◽  
Robert A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
The Future

AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

scholarly journals Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Anantha M. Prasad ◽  
Matthew P. Peters ◽  
Stephen N. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Suitable Habitats

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change winner in the deep sea? Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii

2021 ◽  
Vol 657 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
L Beazley ◽  
E Kenchington ◽  
FJ Murillo ◽  
D Brickman ◽  
Z Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Scotian Shelf ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Glass Sponge ◽  
Core Habitat ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Shallow-water sponges are often cited as being ‘climate change winners’ due to their resiliency against climate change effects compared to other benthic taxa. However, little is known of the impacts of climate change on deep-water sponges. The deep-water glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii is distributed off eastern North America, forming dense sponge grounds with enhanced biodiversity on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada. While the strong natural environmental variability that characterizes these sponge grounds suggests this species is resilient to a changing environment, its physiological limitations remain unknown, and the impact of more persistent anthropogenic climate change on its distribution has never been assessed. We used Random Forest and generalized additive models to project the distribution of V. pourtalesii in the northwest Atlantic using environmental conditions simulated under moderate and worst-case CO2 emission scenarios. Under future (2046-2065) climate change, the suitable habitat of V. pourtalesii will increase up to 4 times its present-day size and shift into deeper waters and higher latitudes, particularly in its northern range where ocean warming will serve to improve the habitat surrounding this originally sub-tropical species. However, not all areas projected as suitable habitat in the future will realistically be populated, and the reduced likelihood of occurrence in its core habitat on the Scotian Shelf suggests that the existing Vazella sponge grounds may be negatively impacted. An effective monitoring programme will require tracking changes in the density and distribution of V. pourtalesii at the margins between core habitat and where losses and gains were projected.

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