Mission Critical Events

2015 ◽  
pp. 38-49
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Problem Definition ◽  
Analytic Structure ◽  
Critical Events ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Time Compression ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Mission Critical

Mission critical events are changing operational conditions that will have a significant impact on the mission. If they are specified correctly, one can begin to design meaningful crew station responses. This chapter is about how to make decisions that are appropriate for the environment; in this case, under increased time compression. The theoretical focus of decisions shifts the conceptual design of the decision analytic structure forward to the problem definition stage. In large-scale dynamic systems, getting the problem right is often the most difficult task of the operator and operational manager. Operational decision making (ODM) stands in visible contrast to conventional decision making, and conventional decision theory, in that among all classes of decisions, an operational decision is singular, and contains a number of unique components.

Mission Performance Aids

2015 ◽  
pp. 190-218
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Intelligent Systems ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Critical Events ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Mission Critical ◽  
Flight Deck

Flight deck displays that automatically adapt themselves to changing operational conditions are referred to as mission adaptive displays, or smart cockpits. A smart cockpit is an intelligent system possessing advanced reasoning capabilities. Mission Performance Aids are a particular manifestation of Mission Adaptive Displays. Mission Performance Aids fall into three categories: Precision Maneuver Guidance (PMG), Mission Performance Evaluator (MPE), and Operational Decision Making (ODM). The MPE alerts the crew to parameter exceedance. The ODM can calculate a cumulative effect with respect to two or more risk factors being encountered simultaneously. They discern all mission critical events, including escape maneuvers. Currently, this type of performance aid is not available. So this section should prove especially useful for designers of advanced intelligent systems.

Operational Decision Making

2015 ◽  
pp. 257-271
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Energy Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Additional Material ◽  
Time Compression ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Operational Systems ◽  
Operational Decision Making

Additional material on decision making in operational systems is presented here. This material would be most useful for researchers engaged in the conceptual design of onboard decision support systems. Decision making is a complex process. Over the years much has been written about decision theory but very little attention has been paid to decision making under increased time compression. Also, additional complexity is introduced by having to deal with large-scale dynamic systems and their attendant trajectory and energy management demands. We discuss DODAR and FORDEC and their limitations. Operational decision making is a risk-driven model that triggers pilots' responses, actions, and decisions by changing the aircraft's position within the risk envelope. This material can form the basis of a more complete picture of the state-of-the-art decision theory and what useful aspects and insights we can use operationally.

Concept Evaluation

2015 ◽  
pp. 220-233
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Definition ◽  
Critical Conditions ◽  
Analytic Structure ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Wake Turbulence ◽  
Concept Evaluation ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Special Notice

Various mission adaptive display concepts are evaluated in an operational setting to evaluate the effectiveness of their conceptual design. This is useful so one can highlight possible design problems early. An important aspect of this evaluation presented here is the scenario treatment of an actual mission. Terrain critical conditions, wind shear, and wake turbulence conditions are covered. This section also examines some important features and theories of Operational decision making. Included in the operational decision making model are problem definition, ODM definition, risk continuum, decision analytic structure, mission performance models, triggering events, critical flight maneuver performance aids, and kinematic assessment. A special notice should be given to the operational treatment of a single engine approach and the mission performance aids associated with its critical flight maneuver.

Decision Making in Complex Environments

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Optimization ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Complex Environments ◽  
Bayesian Theorem ◽  
Skill Sets ◽  
Technology Applications ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
And Performance

Bayesian probability theory, signal detection theory, and operational decision theory are combined to understand how one can operate effectively in complex environments, which requires uncommon skill sets for performance optimization. The analytics of uncertainty in the form of Bayesian theorem applied to a moving object is presented, followed by how operational decision making is applicable to all complex environments. Large-scale dynamic systems have erratic behavior, so there is a need to effectively manage risk. Risk management needs to be addressed from the standpoint of convergent technology applications and performance modeling. The example of an airplane during takeoff shows how a risk continuum needs to be developed. An unambiguous demarcation line for low, moderate, and high risk is made and the decision analytical structure for all operational decisions is developed. Three mission-critical decisions are discussed to optimize performance: to continue or abandon the mission, the approach go-around maneuver, and the takeoff go/no-go decision.

Case Study

2015 ◽  
pp. 143-154
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Situation Awareness ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Critical Events ◽  
High Workload ◽  
Mission Critical ◽  
Insight Into

This is a case study of what has been called the Midway accident, of flight 1248. It is presented here to provide insight into a high workload, high-stress operation and the dangers associated with task overload and situation awareness breakdown. An examination of the decision making process reveals that this could have been aided by the meaningful evaluation of the cumulative effect of multiple mission critical events that were encountered in the course of this operation. Importantly, the full implication of adverse wind conditions coupled with braking action advisories on a short runway should have been made.

Operational Decision Making in Aviation

2015 ◽  
pp. 15-37
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Thinking ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Time Compression ◽  
Conflicting Information ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Operational Systems ◽  
Operational Decision Making

Operational decision making, sometimes referred to as decision making in operational systems, is singular among all other classes of decisions. The type of decision used in operational systems is known as an operational decision and is addressed by the theory and practice of operational decision making (ODM). ODM is a body of knowledge and a system of thought, similar in many respects to critical thinking, but with some important differences. They are that a decision must often be made under increased time compression, it must be made with incomplete of conflicting information, and the consequences of a poor decision could be catastrophic. This chapter provides a brief overview of this important subject. More in-depth treatments follow in later chapters.

Decision Making in Complex Environments

2021 ◽  
pp. 453-466
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Optimization ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Complex Environments ◽  
Bayesian Theorem ◽  
Skill Sets ◽  
Technology Applications ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
And Performance

Bayesian probability theory, signal detection theory, and operational decision theory are combined to understand how one can operate effectively in complex environments, which requires uncommon skill sets for performance optimization. The analytics of uncertainty in the form of Bayesian theorem applied to a moving object is presented, followed by how operational decision making is applicable to all complex environments. Large-scale dynamic systems have erratic behavior, so there is a need to effectively manage risk. Risk management needs to be addressed from the standpoint of convergent technology applications and performance modeling. The example of an airplane during takeoff shows how a risk continuum needs to be developed. An unambiguous demarcation line for low, moderate, and high risk is made and the decision analytical structure for all operational decisions is developed. Three mission-critical decisions are discussed to optimize performance: to continue or abandon the mission, the approach go-around maneuver, and the takeoff go/no-go decision.

MONITORING THE ATTITUDE OF THE POPULATION TO PROBLEMS OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT FOR SITUATION-AL CENTERS OF A SMART CITY

2019 ◽  
pp. 51-54
Author(s):  
D. Verzilin ◽  
T. Maximova ◽  
I. Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Urban Environment ◽  
Smart City ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Online Activity ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Intelligent Information ◽  
State Of The Environment ◽  
Active Citizen

Goal. The purpose of the study was to search for alternative sources of information on popu-lation’s preferences and response to problems and changes in the urban environment for use in the operational decision-making at situational centers. Materials and methods. The authors used data from search queries with keywords, data on communities in social networks, data from subject forums, and official statistics. Methods of statistical data analysis were applied. Results. The analysis of thematic online activity of the population was performed. The re-sults reflected the interest in the state of the environment, the possibility of distance learning and work, are presented. It was reasoned that measurements of population’s thematic online activity let identify needs and analyze the real-time response to changes in the urban envi-ronment. Such an approach to identifying the needs of the population can be used in addition to the platforms “Active Citizen” of the Smart City project. Conclusions. An analysis of data on online activity of the population for decision-making at situational centers is more operational, flexible and representative, as compared with the use of tools of those platforms. Such an analysis can be used as an alternative to sociological surveys, as it saves time and money. When making management decisions using intelligent information services, it is necessary to take into account the needs of the population, reflect-ed in its socio-economic activity in cyberspace.

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