Major Macroeconomic Dynamics for Labor Market in Turkey

2017 ◽  
pp. 307-320
Author(s):  
Mustafa Karabacak ◽  
Oytun Meçik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship among inflation, unemployment, and economic growth can be treated as a trade-off in general. When the economy is in recession, inflationary pressures are expected to decrease while unemployment is increasing. On the contrary, a decrease is expected while inflationary pressures are rising. Thus the relation between these twin macroeconomic variables and their relation to economic growth are a focal point for developing countries. The aim of this study is analyzing the relationship among unemployment, inflation, and economic growth in Turkey by alternative methods. Thus the causality among these variables is tested with modified Wald statistic developed by Toda-Yamamoto. Findings obtained from causality test will provide policy recommendations for Turkish economy on a macroeconomic level.

Major Macroeconomic Dynamics for Labor Market in Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 1758-1771
Author(s):  
Mustafa Karabacak ◽  
Oytun Meçik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship among inflation, unemployment, and economic growth can be treated as a trade-off in general. When the economy is in recession, inflationary pressures are expected to decrease while unemployment is increasing. On the contrary, a decrease is expected while inflationary pressures are rising. Thus the relation between these twin macroeconomic variables and their relation to economic growth are a focal point for developing countries. The aim of this study is analyzing the relationship among unemployment, inflation, and economic growth in Turkey by alternative methods. Thus the causality among these variables is tested with modified Wald statistic developed by Toda-Yamamoto. Findings obtained from causality test will provide policy recommendations for Turkish economy on a macroeconomic level.

scholarly journals Revisiting the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution in Italy: evidence from a gradient descent algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Mele ◽  
Cosimo Magazzino ◽  
Nicolas Schneider ◽  
Floriana Nicolai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gradient Descent ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Descent ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Gradient Descent Algorithm ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Main Strand ◽  
Yearly Data

AbstractAlthough the literature on the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions is extensive, the use of machine learning (ML) tools remains seminal. In this paper, we assess this nexus for Italy using innovative algorithms, with yearly data for the 1960–2017 period. We develop three distinct models: the batch gradient descent (BGD), the stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and the multilayer perceptron (MLP). Despite the phase of low Italian economic growth, results reveal that CO2 emissions increased in the predicting model. Compared to the observed statistical data, the algorithm shows a correlation between low growth and higher CO2 increase, which contradicts the main strand of literature. Based on this outcome, adequate policy recommendations are provided.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Food Sector Growth

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Eslami ◽  
Ali Akbar Baghestany
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Background: One of the most fundamental objectives of the macroeconomic policies is to realize the relationship between economic growth and inflation. According to some monetary policy advisors, inflation reflects erosion in consumer’s purchasing power. Inflation as an important economic variable, affect the economic growth and its impact on economic growth has been proposed in various theories. Agriculture plays an important role in providing the food security in Iran. Methods: A Bivariate GARCH model was employed to investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and agricultural growth. Results: The Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests indicated all variables were stationary. Estimated models were utilized to generate the conditional variances of inflation and agriculture growth as proxies of inflation and growth variability. During the entire period 1990-2012, Bivariate Granger Causality test indicated that inflation uncertainty was the cause of growth in agriculture. This finding was in line with the hypothesis presented by (Logue and Sweeney, 1981). Conclusion: Due to the causality relation of inflation uncertainty and growth in agriculture, macro policy decision-makers are recommended to consider the price policies for improving agricultural production.

scholarly journals Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: Is Phillips Curve True for African Developing Countries? Evidence from Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Allagabo Omer Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment (Phillips Curve) is controversial in economic thought, and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not. If this relationship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve. However, in the long run, this relationship may probable not exist. The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth, is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers. This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.

Research on the Development of the Logistics Industry

2014 ◽  
Vol 687-691 ◽  
pp. 4568-4572
Author(s):  
Hai Chen Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Division Of Labor ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Logistics Industry ◽  
The Social ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Relationship

Modern logistics industry as an emerging industry, with the industrial division of labor with the social refinement and depth, to promote China's economic development has become an important industry and new economic growth point. This paper uses econometric approach to relations of the logistics industry and economic growth in Gansu Province made an empirical analysis reveals and Reveals the relationship between logistics industry and economic development in Gansu Province And for the results of the analysis are summarized and give relevant policy recommendations, hoping to provide a reference for the development of decision-making in Gansu.

The Relationship Between R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth ın OECD Countries With Different Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
pp. 107-118
Author(s):  
Gökhan Karhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Causality ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Rolling Windows ◽  
The Relationship

In this chapter, the relationship between research and development (R&D) expenditures and economic growth was investigated with both Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse Causality test and the Dimitrescu and Hurlin Panel Causality test based on Rolling Windows Regression for the selected 19 OECD member countries for the period 1996-2015. The results concluded that for all panel there is a causality from economic growth to R&D expenditures. In this study, the relationship between variables was investigated using different mathematical techniques like rolling windows. According to the results of the Dimitrescu and Hurlin Panel Causality Test based on Rolling Window Regression, which is applied differently from other studies in the literature, there was a causality from economic growth to R&D expenditures in 2010. In 2011, there was causality from R&D expenditures to economic growth for all panels.

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