Today, there is a significant increase in the number of cyber-attacks in the world. At the same time their technological complexity increases proportionally. In the near future, new potentially dangerous cyber-attacks will appear, which in turn may lead to a deterioration of their detection and neutralization and, as a consequence, adversely affect the level of security of information and information and telecommunication systems of critical information infrastructure. Based on the mentioned in the article is solved the urgent task of identifying and neutralizing potentially dangerous cyber-attacks, which boils down to the development of differential-game model of their pattern. The basis of the created pattern of potentially dangerous cyberattacks is proposed to put the Denning`s model of information protection and the method of differential-game simulation of cyber-attack on information processes. The article shows that the pattern of a potentially dangerous cyberattack is modeled under the a priori uncertainty of the input data, since the potential cyberattacks that will take place may be quite diverse. In view of this, it is proposed that the hybrid model be used as a generic template for a potentially dangerous cyberattack due to the inability to make the correct input requirements for the model. This approach provides the evolving model that is being developed, that is, convergence with real physical phenomena and processes in information and information and telecommunication systems. As a result of the application of the differential-game modeling method in analytical form, a generalized differential-game model of a pattern of potentially dangerous cyber-attacks is generalized. Thus, the article further developed a generalized differential-game model of a potentially dangerous cyber-attack pattern, which is based on a Denning's model of information protection and methods of differential-game modeling of the attack on information, which, unlike the existing ones, takes into account the intensity of the offender and the protected party. It allows to estimate the level of insecurity of the information and telecommunication system in the conditions of a priori uncertainty of the input data. The application of the model in practice allows the creation of effective information security systems that will be able to detect potentially dangerous cyber-attacks in the critical infrastructure information and telecommunication system with minimal errors of the first kind.
Methodology for the Formation of Assessment Values of Expert Performance Indicators for Perspective Automated Digital Telecommunication Systems
