India-BIMSTEC Bilateral Trade Activities

2020 ◽  
pp. 126-145
Author(s):  
Gurpreet Kaur ◽  
Akriti Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Regional Dummy

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is one of the solutions to converge the economic interests of India's Look East Policy and Thailand's Look West Policy. Its objective is to integrate the regions on both sides of the Bay of Bengal. The development of BIMSTEC countries is indispensable for the forward march of Asia as a whole. This chapter analyzes the India-BIMSTEC trade activities after the establishment of BIMSTEC bloc. Gravity model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are used. The model estimates the sets of regression equations to measure the effects of regional trade agreements using ordinary least squares with nation dummies to capture country-specific fixed effects. The study reveals that all coefficients of regional dummy variables are mostly positive and significant, indicating the agreements that tend to enhance more trade than bilateral trade agreements. The authors state that based on India's trade with the BIMSTEC region, there exists a scope for intraregional trade in the future.

scholarly journals LA INSERCIÓN COMERCIAL DE CHINA EN LATINOAMÉRICA

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (310) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Jorge Alberto López Arévalo ◽  
Óscar Rodil Marzábal
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Positive Effect

<p>Este trabajo estudia los intercambios bilaterales de China con México, Chile, Costa Rica y Perú desde la óptica del comercio intraindustrial durante 1995-2017. En particular, se analizan las diferencias en el patrón de inserción intraindustrial en un contexto marcado por la existencia (Chile, Costa Rica y Perú) o no (México) de acuerdos de libre comercio con China. El estudio se completa con un análisis econométrico (efectos fijos) de los determinantes del comercio intraindustrial. Los resultados muestran una inserción de bajo perfil intraindustrial, con la excepción de algunas partidas específicas relativas a productos eléctricos y de la industria automotriz. Por otro lado, se confirma el efecto positivo del tamaño de la economía, de la inversión extranjera directa y de la diferenciación de producto, así como negativo de la diferencia en el nivel de ingreso; mientras que existe una indefinición en el papel de los acuerdos de libre comercio con China.<br /><br /></p><p>THE TRADE INTEGRATION OF CHINA IN LATIN AMERICA</p><p> </p><p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><br />This paper studies China’s bilateral trade with Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru from the perspective of intra-industrial trade during 1995-2017. In particular, the differences in the pattern of intra-industrial insertion are analyzed in a context characterized by the existence (Chile, Costa Rica and Peru) or not (Mexico) of free trade agreements with China. An econometric analysis (fixed effects) of the determinants of intra-industrial trade completes the study. The results show a low intra-industrial profile, except for some specific items related to electrical products and the automotive industry. The positive effect of the size of the economy, foreign direct investment and product differentiation is also confirmed, as well as the negative effect of the difference in income level. However, there is an undefined role for free trade agreements with China.</p>

scholarly journals A wavelet approach of investing behaviors and their effects on risk exposures

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Mestre
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Wavelet Decompositions ◽  
Fama French Factors ◽  
Different Sources

AbstractExposure to market risk is a core objective of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with a focus on systematic risk. However, traditional OLS Beta model estimations (Ordinary Least Squares) are plagued with several statistical issues. Moreover, the CAPM considers only one source of risk and supposes that investors only engage in similar behaviors. In order to analyze short and long exposures to different sources of risk, we developed a Time–Frequency Multi-Betas Model with ARMA-EGARCH errors (Auto Regressive Moving Average Exponential AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity). Our model considers gold, oil, and Fama–French factors as supplementary sources of risk and wavelets decompositions. We used 30 French stocks listed on the CAC40 (Cotations Assistées Continues 40) within a daily period from 2005 to 2015. The conjugation of the wavelet decompositions and the parameters estimates constitutes decision-making support for managers by multiplying the interpretive possibilities. In the short-run, (“Noise Trader” and “High-Frequency Trader”) only a few equities are insensitive to Oil and Gold fluctuations, and the estimated Market Betas parameters are scant different compared to the Model without wavelets. Oppositely, in the long-run, (fundamentalists investors), Oil and Gold affect all stocks but their impact varies according to the Beta (sensitivity to the market). We also observed significant differences between parameters estimated with and without wavelets.

scholarly journals Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade under MFN and SAFTA: Do Institutional and Non-Institutional Arrangements Matter?

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasir Iqbal ◽  
Saima Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is two fold. First, to estimate the impact of institutional and non-institutional arrangements on bilateral trade, and second to analyse the impact of SAFTA on bilateral trade in the short as well as in the long run. The empirical analysis which is based on the panel of eight South Asian countries, comprising data over the period i.e. 1975–2013 is conducted using fixed effects model along with Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) estimator for estimating the short and long-run relationships. The analysis has shown that trade agreements including South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) are not effective in promoting trade, due to low institutional quality and stringent non-institutional arrangements, including high tariff along with low physical infrastructure. Further empirical analysis has shown that both SAFTA and MFN can only contribute to bilateral trade significantly, if complemented by institutional framework. As a policy lesson, to improve the trade ties between India and Pakistan, improvement in physical as well as soft infrastructure is required. Any trade agreements between the two, including MFN can only be effective, when it is supported by a well-defined and enforced institutional framework that ensure the implementation of policy reforms needed to reduce tariff rate and remove non-tariff barriers.

scholarly journals Short-Term Impact of the EU-Japan EPA: The Case of Wine Exports from France, Italy, and Spain to Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Porto
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Eu

In February 2019, the Economic Partnership Agreement between the European Union and Japan was enforced, liberalising most of the bilateral trade. For example, Japan eliminated the duties on European products such as chemicals, textiles, clothing and wine immediately upon entry into force of the agreement. In this study, we attempt to quantify the short-term effect of the EPA on European wine exports to Japan. We fit a seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly exports of wine from France, Italy, and Spain to Japan up to the month prior to the activation of the EU – Japan EPA. Subsequently, we use the estimated models to forecast twelve months ahead starting from February 2019, i.e., from the first month of implementation of the EU – Japan EPA. Finally, we compare the forecasts with the observed values for the same period. The results show that our forecasts do not outperform the observed values. Consequently, we conclude that the positive difference between the observed values and the forecast is due to the effect of the agreement.

scholarly journals Trade impacts of the New Silk Road in Africa: Insight from Neural Networks Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-26
Author(s):  
Dumor Koffi ◽  
Komlan Gbongli
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
The Impact

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is aimed to strengthen the preferential reciprocal trade between China and the Belt-Road nations. Quantitative evaluations of BRI to determine whether it can explicitly provide more insight into China’s bilateral trade among its partners are needed. Hence, improving prediction accuracy while using more superior algorithms for sustainable decision-making remains essential since decision-makers have been interested in predicting the future. Machine learning algorithms, such as supervised artificial neural networks (ANN), outperform several econometric procedures in predictions; therefore, they are potentially powerful techniques to evaluate BRI. This study uses detailed China’s bilateral export data from 1990 to 2017 to analyze and evaluate the impact of BRI on bilateral trade using gravity model estimations and ANN analysis techniques. The finding suggests that China’s bilateral export flow among the BRI countries results in a slight increase in inter-regional trade. The study provides a comparison view on the different estimation procedures of the gravity model – ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) with the ANN. The ANN associated with fixed country effects reveals a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model and with country-year fixed effects. Contrarily, the OLS estimator and PPML showed mixed results. Grounded on the study dataset, the ANN estimation of the gravity equation was superior over the other procedures to explain the variability of the dependent variable (export) regarding the prediction accuracy using root mean squared error (RMSE) and R-square.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EU’S INVESTMENT POLICY AFTER CETA: EFFECTS ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolay Marin ◽  
◽  
Mariya Paskaleva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
National Parliaments ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Investment Protection ◽  
New Generation

In this paper we analyze the changes of the EU’s investment policy provoked by the mixed trade agreements. The EU’s investment policy has turned towards attaining bilateral trade agreements. One of these “new-generation” agreements is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). It is in a process of being ratified by the national parliaments of the EU members. This study is focused on the general characteristics of CETA and the eventual problems posed by its regulatory and wide-ranging nature. We prove that the significance of this agreement pertains not only to the economic influence, that it will have on the European and Canadian economies, but CETA is also the first trade agreement to have been negotiated with a focus on investment protection and a change in the EU’s investment policy. The current study reveals the influence arising from the conclusion of CETA on the Bulgarian economy with an emphasis on electronic industry, machinery industry and manufacturing. We estimate both – the direct and indirect effects on Bulgaria’s exports, imports, value added and employment. In order to estimate the influence, we apply the multi-regional input-output model. It is proved that CETA will have a low but positive impact on the Bulgarian economy. After constructing different scenarios of development, we prove that the influence of CETA on the Bulgarian economy will amount to 0.010% GDP. The average total employment will be increased by more than 172 jobs in Bulgaria, which in turn, relative to the labor market, represents less than 0.01% of the total employment.

The antecedents of corporate social and environmental responsibility discourse in Pakistan: Multiple theoretical perspectives

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Farhan Basheer ◽  
Saqib Muneer ◽  
Muhammad Atif ◽  
Zubair Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Theory ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Agency Theory ◽  
Stakeholder Theory ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Environmental Responsibility ◽  
Legitimacy Theory ◽  
Discourse Practices ◽  
Corporate Social

The primary purpose of the study is to explore the antecedents of corporate social and environmental responsibilities discourse practices in Pakistan. The industry sensitivity, government shareholding, block holder ownership, print media coverage, environmental monitoring programs, and strategic posture are examined as antecedents of corporate social and environmental responsibility practices. A multidimensional theoretical perspective namely stakeholder theory (ST), institutional theory (IT), agency theory (PAT), and legitimacy theory (LT) is used to conceptualize the phenomena. All the four of perspective theories (positive accounting theory, legitimacy theory, stakeholder theory, and institutional theory) claim that there are ‘pressures’ that impact the organization. How much ‘pressures’ are recognized, managed or satisfied differs from one perspective of theory to the other. To estimate the data, this study uses three sets of panel data models, i.e., the pooled ordinary least squares model (POLS) or constant coefficients model, fixed effects (FEM or least squares dummy variable/LSDV model) and random-effects models. The final sample is comprising of 173 firms over eight years from 2011 to 2017. The firms listed in PSX are included in the sample. Overall the findings of the study have shown agreement with the proposed results. However, the study has provided more support to the institutional theory and stakeholder theory. Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility, Stakeholders Theory, Agency Theory, Pakistan

Cultural Bias: Gymnasts, Judges, and Bilateral Trade Agreements

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian P. Callahan ◽  
Sean E. Mulholland ◽  
Kurt W. Rotthoff
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Cultural Bias

COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS – PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP – 11): PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE?

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Vladimir Yu. Salamatov ◽  
Nataliia M. Galkina
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Regional Trade Agreements ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The World ◽  
The Common ◽  
Partnership Agreement

The article considers the global trend towards regional trade agreements (RTA). The authors note that in addition to the common bilateral RTAs, countries conclude multilateral regional trade agreements. In particular, the article examines changes in the world economy, which occur under the influence of the mega-regional trade agreements (MRTA) formation. An example of the MRTA is the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and its possible impact onRussiais discussed in the present article. The authors discuss the stages of TPP development, its goals, provisions, innovations and prospects. The article analyses an example of a country’s withdrawal from an agreement, its’ consequences and possible impact on the country itself and other signatory countries to the agreement. The article points out the differences between TPP and TPP-11. Inparticular, the article discusses the possible impact of the TPP-11 onRussia. Trade relations betweenRussiaand TPP-11 signatory countries are considered, and key markets among TPP-11 countries are identified. The article highlights the importance ofRussia's rapid response to the possible consequences of the TPP-11, including the possible conclusion of bilateral trade agreements between the EAEU, whereRussiais a member, and potential partners from TPP-11 countries.

Prognosticating the spread of covid-19 pandemic based on optimal arima estimators

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venuka Sandhir ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
Vikash Kumar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Stable Case ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Threat

Background: COVID-19 cases have been reported as a global threat and several studies are being conducted using various modelling techniques to evaluate patterns of disease dispersion in the upcoming weeks. Here we propose a simple statistical model that could be used to predict the epidemiological extent of community spread of COVID-19from the explicit data based on optimal ARIMA model estimators. Methods: Raw data was retrieved on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins University (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on cumulative daily figures of confirmed cases aggregated globally for ten major countries to predict their incidence trend. Statistical analysis was completed by using R 3.5.3 software. Results: The optimal ARIMA model having the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value for US (0,2,0); Spain (1,2,0); France (0,2,1); Germany (3,2,2); Iran (1,2,1); China (0,2,1); Russia (3,2,1); India (2,2,2); Australia (1,2,0) and South Africa (0,2,2) imparted the nowcasting of trends for the upcoming weeks. These parameters are (p, d, q) where p refers to number of autoregressive terms, d refers to number of times the series has to be differenced before it becomes stationary, and q refers to number of moving average terms. Results obtained from ARIMA model showed significant decrease cases in Australia; stable case for China and rising cases has been observed in other countries. Conclusion: This study tried their best at predicting the possible proliferate of COVID-19, although spreading significantly depends upon the various control and measurement policy taken by each country.

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