Anti-Collision Risk Assessment Method Based on Relevance Vector Machine

2013 ◽  
Vol 387 ◽  
pp. 341-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Lin Cui ◽  
Xu Sheng Gan ◽  
Ya Rong Wu ◽  
Hai Long Gao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Novel Structure

In order to improve the safety level of aircraft anti-collision, an anti-collision risk assessment methods based on Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is proposed. First, RVM learning under Bayesian framework is introduced as well as its basic principle and modeling process, and then on the basis of system point of view an anti-collision risk assessment index system is established, finally, on this basis, RVM assessment model for aircraft anti-collision risk is constructed. It can adaptively adjust the weights of influence factors without analyzing the relationship between various factors in the system. Examples show that, for anti-collision risk assessment, RVM has a novel structure and convenient application, and the result can reflect the actual safety situation.

scholarly journals A new risk assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics

2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (9) ◽  
pp. 1800-1816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Bin Qiu ◽  
Keming Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Cold Chain ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Catastrophe Progression

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative risk assessment method for agricultural products cold chain logistics to assess the condition of the fresh agricultural products cold chain process objectively and accurately. Design/methodology/approach A risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics is designed on the basis of the risk identification for the process of agricultural products cold chain logistics. This paper first uses catastrophe progression method and a new maximum deviation method to build an improved catastrophe progression assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. In order to verify the reliability and validity of the model, two representative enterprises are selected as the case in the study. Findings The results in the empirical research indicate strong support for the assessment model and coincide with the reality. The risk assessment index system can also reflect the key risk factors from agricultural products cold chain logistics scientifically. In addition, the improved catastrophe progression assessment method proposed in this paper can be scientific and reasonable to predict risk. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to provide a new risk assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. The new model overcomes the limitation of subjective empowerment and it increases the objectivity and scientificity in the process of cold chain logistics risk assessment. This paper also shows that practitioners involved in the field of products cold chain logistics can manage the potential risk by a set of scientific methods for assessing the risk before the accident. Practical implications The paper provides a practical guideline to practitioners, especially for cold chain logistics managers, relevant management departments, and cold chain logistics management consultants. It is proved that the new risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics can help them assess the risk scientifically and reasonably. Originality/value Although the calculation is simple, the new model can overcome the limitation of subjective empowerment scientifically and reasonably, and thus has important practical value.

scholarly journals Absolute mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients: the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Marateb ◽  
Maja von Cube ◽  
Ramin Sami ◽  
Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard ◽  
Marjan Mansourian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Statistical Point ◽  
Hazard Regression ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Discharge From Hospital

Abstract Background Already at hospital admission, clinicians require simple tools to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality. Such tools can significantly improve resource allocation and patient management within hospitals. From the statistical point of view, extended time-to-event models are required to account for competing risks (discharge from hospital) and censoring so that active cases can also contribute to the analysis. Methods We used the hospital-based open Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study with 630 COVID-19 patients from Isfahan, Iran. Competing risk methods are used to develop a death risk chart based on the following variables, which can simply be measured at hospital admission: sex, age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The area under the receiver operator curve was used to assess accuracy concerning discrimination between patients discharged alive and dead. Results Cause-specific hazard regression models show that these baseline variables are associated with both death, and discharge hazards. The risk chart reflects the combined results of the two cause-specific hazard regression models. The proposed risk assessment method had a very good accuracy (AUC = 0.872 [CI 95%: 0.835–0.910]). Conclusions This study aims to improve and validate a personalized mortality risk calculator based on hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The risk assessment of patient mortality provides physicians with additional guidance for making tough decisions.

scholarly journals Explosion risk assessment model for underground mine atmosphere

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwei Cheng ◽  
Xixi Zhang ◽  
Apurna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Critical Time ◽  
Underground Mine ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Explosion Risk

In the coal mining industry, explosions or mine fires present the most hazardous safety threats for coal miners or mine rescue members. Hence, the determination of the mine atmosphere explosibility and its evolution are critical for the success of mine rescues or controlling the severity of a mine accident. However, although there are numbers of methods which can be used to identify the explosibility, none of them could well indicate the change to the explosion risk time evolution. The reason is that the underground sealed atmospheric compositions are so complicated and their dynamical changes are also affected by various influence factors. There is no one method that could well handle all such considerations. Therefore, accurately knowing the mine atmospheric status is still a complicated problem for mining engineers. Method of analyzing the explosion safety margin for an underground sealed atmosphere is urgently desired. This article is going to propose a series of theoretical explosion risk assessment models to fully analyze the evolution of explosion risk in an underground mine atmosphere. Models are based on characteristics of the Coward explosibility diagram with combining mathematical analyzing approaches to address following problems: (1) for an “not-explosive” atmosphere, judging the evolution of explosion risk and estimating the change-of-state time span from “not-explosive” to “explosive” and (2) for an “explosive” atmosphere, estimating the “critical” time span of moving out of explosive zone and stating the best risk mitigation strategy. Such research efforts could not only help mine operators understand the explosibility risk of a sealed mine atmosphere but also provide a useful tool to wisely control explosive atmosphere away from any dangers. In order to demonstrate research findings, case studies for derived models are shown and are also used to instruct readers how to apply them. The results provide useful information for effectively controlling an explosive underground sealed atmosphere.

Analytical model for assessing collapse risk during mountain tunnel construction

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 326-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Hua Zhang ◽  
Yu-Yong Jiao ◽  
Li-Biao Chen ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Shu-Cai Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Geological Prediction ◽  
Tunnel Collapse ◽  
Mountain Tunnel

Risk management for safety in mountain tunnel construction is of great significance. However, existing research lags behind engineering applications. In this paper, the risk of mountain tunnel collapse is used as an example to illustrate a new assessment method based on case-based reasoning, advanced geological prediction, and rough set theory. First, the risk surroundings and risk factors involved in tunnel collapse are integrated and summarized, and a risk assessment index system is established for tunnel collapse. At the same time, because the dynamic response parameters obtained by the advanced geological prediction usually indicate a typical geological structure, sensitive response parameters are introduced in the assessment index system. Advanced risk assessment can be performed for tunnel sections at a certain distance ahead of the tunnel face. Second, the major risk surroundings and the advanced geological prediction results are analyzed for the tunnel under assessment. Cases with similar attribute characteristics are selected via comparison with previous cases. Attribute reduction and calculation of weights are subsequently performed for the risk surroundings and risk factors of similar cases based on the attribute significance theory of rough sets. Finally, index screening and objective weights are applied in the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. The results of this paper can be used to improve the theoretical level and reliability of risk assessment in tunnel safety and serve as a reference for tunnel construction.

Research on Risk Assessment Method and System Development of Small Ammonia Refrigeration Units

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Weihua Wang ◽  
Weike Jing ◽  
Jin Shi ◽  
Fakun Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
System Development ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Abstract In recent years, ammonia leakage accidents occur frequently, which causes a great concern in China. Based on traditional risk analysis methods and the equipment characteristics, a risk evaluation method for small ammonia refrigeration units is proposed. The method includes a risk assessment model based on area division, a failure probability assessment method based on expert scoring system, a failure consequence assessment method based on regional population density and consequence mitigation measures, and a HAZOP risk correction method. Based on the proposed method, a risk assessment system of small ammonia refrigeration units is developed. This risk assessment method and system will provide a scientific basis to carry out the cold storage management in China.

Longitudinal Collision Risk Assessment of Paired Departure to Closed Spaced Parallel Runways

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2028-2033
Author(s):  
Zhao Ning Zhang ◽  
Hui Qiao ◽  
Ting Ting Lu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Safety Operation ◽  
Calculation Models

Paired departure to closed spaced parallel runways can effectively improve capacity of terminal, and also can solve congestion of busy airport, but it also increases the complexity of air traffic control .For ensuring safety operation of paired departure, the longitudinal collision risk of paired departure to closed spaced parallel runways was studied. Based on the acceleration error distribution and requirements on wake avoidance during paired departure, a longitudinal collision risk safety assessment model of closed spaced parallel runways paired departure was built. The parameters in this model were determined by providing the calculation models. In the end, an example was calculated to verify the model, and it turns out that this model is feasible.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Risk Assessment Method for Deep-Buried Tunnels Based on a Bayesian Network

Geofluids ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jie Su ◽  
Sulei Zhang ◽  
Siyao Guo ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Risk Rating ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

In view of the shortcomings in the risk assessment of deep-buried tunnels, a dynamic risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network is proposed. According to case statistics, a total of 12 specific risk rating factors are obtained and divided into three types: objective factors, subjective factors, and monitoring factors. The grading criteria of the risk rating factors are determined, and a dynamic risk rating system is established. A Bayesian network based on this system is constructed by expert knowledge and historical data. The nodes in the Bayesian network are in one-to-one correspondence with the three types of influencing factors, and the probability distribution is determined. Posterior probabilistic and sensitivity analyses are carried out, and the results show that the main influencing factors obtained by the two methods are basically the same. The constructed dynamic risk assessment model is most affected by the objective factor rating and monitoring factor rating, followed by the subjective factor rating. The dynamic risk rating is mainly affected by the surrounding rock level among the objective factors, construction management among the subjective factors, and arch crown convergence and side wall displacement among the monitoring factors. The dynamic risk assessment method based on the Bayesian network is applied to the No. 3 inclined shaft of the Humaling tunnel. According to the adjustment of the monitoring data and geological conditions, the dynamic risk rating probability of level I greatly decreased from 81.7% to 33.8%, the probability of level II significantly increased from 12.3% to 34.0%, and the probability of level III increased from 5.95% to 32.2%, which indicates that the risk level has risen sharply. The results show that this method can effectively predict the risk level during tunnel construction.

A SOMNN Model for Transport Risk Assessment of Hazardous Materials by Rail

2012 ◽  
Vol 629 ◽  
pp. 778-783
Author(s):  
Ke Pan ◽  
Shouan Guan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Hazardous Materials ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
System A ◽  
China National Petroleum Corporation ◽  
Assessment Index System

Railway siding for transport of hazardous materials is an important way in transporting of hazardous materials in China and they often result in catastrophic consequences for environment and society with a great deal of economic loss. Risk assessment for railway siding is an effective way to ensure its operational safety. This paper focuses on the application of self-organizing neural network (SOMNN) to assess the risk of the railway siding operational system and classify its risk factors. In this work, the system analysis method based on the characteristics of railway siding for hazardous materials is first used to establish the transport risk assessment index system. A comprehensive risk assessment model of railway siding has been developed with the SOMNN theory to improve present methods available for risk assessment of rail siding’s safety. A field case study about 15 railway slides for transporting of oil in Jilin broach center of China National Petroleum Corporation is undertaken so that the effectiveness of the proposed approach could be verified. The result is in line with the actual situation and indicates that this method used is feasible and rational. This model provides a new method for transport risk assessment of hazardous materials by rail. The method is also proved more efficient for both risk assessment and safety management. The work specified in this paper can be as reference to the assessment work in China.

scholarly journals Non-dimensional method of capacity limit states for the assessment of the safety level in the structures of large panel buildings.

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Piotr BIERANOWSKI ◽  
Adam BARYŁKA
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Method ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Safety Issues ◽  
Vertical Reinforcement ◽  
Capacity Limit ◽  
Large Panel ◽  
Computer Research ◽  
Construction Model

In the article deals with the European safety issues of large-panel buildings from the point of view of exceeding the ULS. The proprietary assessment method was proposed under the name: Dimensional Limit States Method, which is dedicated to the assessment of the safety level in the structures of large-panel buildings. The work was based on many years of computer research conducted by the author. In the paper uses the proprietary  construction model of the Wk-70 system building, presents the results for vertical reinforcement inserts.

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