Research on Tolerance Simulation and Improvement of Gas Turbine Generator

2014 ◽  
Vol 1039 ◽  
pp. 99-104
Author(s):  
Jing Liu ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Gao Wei Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Tolerance Analysis ◽  
Analysis Software ◽  
Turbine Generator ◽  
Reliability Calculation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assembly Precision

VisVSA is a kind of 3-D tolerance analysis software which offers high reliability calculation based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses VisVSA to improve the design of gas turbine generator. In many factors that affect designing properties, the impact of manufacturing precision and assembly precision through comparative analysis are discussed.

scholarly journals UNCERTAINTY OF BATHYMETRY MODELS AND EFFECT ON TSUNAMI MODELS

2020 ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Ignacio Sepulveda ◽  
Jennifer S. Haase ◽  
Philip L.-F. Liu ◽  
Mircea Grigoriu ◽  
Brook Tozer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Random Field ◽  
Field Model ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Response Uncertainty ◽  
Random Field Model ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
The Impact

We describe the uncertainties of altimetry-predicted bathymetry models and then quantify the impact of this uncertainty in tsunami hazard assessments. The study consists of three stages. First, we study the statistics of errors of altimetry-predicted bathymetry models. Second, we employ these statistics to propose a random field model for errors anywhere. Third, we use bathymetry samples to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation and describe the tsunami response uncertainty. We found that bathymetry uncertainties have a greater impact in shallow areas. We also noted that tsunami leading waves are less affected by uncertainties.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/zzL_XWWAQ7o

scholarly journals Changes in the Portfolio Management and Construction under the Pandemic Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Ruipeng Tan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Portfolio Construction ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
The Impact

This paper focuses on comparing portfolio management and construction before and after the coronavirus. First, this paper presents the importance of building up portfolios for investors to diversify their risks. Theories on portfolio management are discussed in this section to show how they have been developed to help on investing and reduce risk. Then, the paper moves on to show the impact of the pandemic on the financial market and portfolio management. Sample data on tech stock returns are collected to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on portfolio construction to find out the efficient portfolio before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. The efficient portfolio is build based on the Markowitz theory to find the combination. Comparisons between these portfolio constructions are made to find out the changes in portfolio management and construction under the pandemic era. In conclusion, this paper presents how pandemic has changed and impacted the investments and lists recommendations on future portfolio management and construction.

scholarly journals Social-network-based water supply network sectorization methodology using monte carlo simulation to predict economical and operational benefits

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Enrique Campbell ◽  
Amilkar Illaya-Ayza ◽  
Joaquín Izquierdo ◽  
Rafael Pérez-García ◽  
Idel Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Management ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Water Supply Network (WSN) sectorization is a broadly known technique aimed at enhancing water supply management. In general, existing methodologies for sectorization of WSNs are limited to assessment of the impact of its implementation over reduction of background leakage, underestimating increased capacity to detect new leakage events and undermining appropriate investment substantiation. In this work, we raise this issue and put in place a methodology to optimize sectors' design. To this end, we carry out a novel combination of the Short Run Economic Leakage Level concept (SRELL- corresponding to leakage level that can occur in a WSN in a certain period of time and whose reparation would be more costly than the benefits that can be obtained). With a non-deterministic optimization method based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs) in combination with Monte Carlo simulation. As an example of application, methodology is implemented over a 246 km pipe-long WSN, reporting 72 397 $/year as net profit.

Benchmarking Fuel Economy of Connected and Automated Vehicles in Real World Driving Conditions via Monte Carlo Simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreshta Rajakumar Deshpande ◽  
Shobhit Gupta ◽  
Dennis Kibalama ◽  
Nicola Pivaro ◽  
Marcello Canova
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Fuel Economy ◽  
Real World ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Driver Model ◽  
Traffic Information ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Instrumented Vehicle ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Connectivity and automation have accelerated the development of algorithms that use route and real-time traffic information for improving energy efficiency. The evaluation of such benefits, however, requires establishing a reliable baseline that is representative of a real-world driving environment. In this context, virtual driver models are generally adopted to predict the vehicle speed based on route data and presence of lead vehicles, in a way that mimics the response of human drivers. This paper proposes an Enhanced Driver Model (EDM) that forecasts the human response when driving in urban conditions, considering the effects of Signal Phasing and Timing (SPaT) by introducing the concept of Line-of-Sight (LoS). The model was validated against data collected on an instrumented vehicle driven on public roads by different human subjects. Using this model, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to determine the statistical distribution of fuel consumption and travel time on a given route, varying driver behavior (aggressiveness), traffic conditions and SPaT. This allows one to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated to real-world driving in fuel economy estimates.

Comparison of Assembly Tolerance Analysis by the Direct Linearization and Modified Monte Carlo Simulation Methods

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinsong Gao ◽  
Kenneth W. Chase ◽  
Spencer P. Magleby
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Tolerance Analysis ◽  
Linearization Method ◽  
Direct Linearization ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Assembly Features ◽  
Assembly Constraints

Abstract Two methods for performing statistical tolerance analysis of mechanical assemblies are compared: the Direct Linearization Method (DLM), and Monte Carlo simulation. A selection of 2-D and 3-D vector models of assemblies were analyzed, including problems with closed loop assembly constraints. Closed vector loops describe the small kinematic adjustments that occur at assembly time. Open loops describe critical clearances or other assembly features. The DLM uses linearized assembly constraints and matrix algebra to estimate the variations of the assembly or kinematic variables, and to predict assembly rejects. A modified Monte Carlo simulation, employing an iterative technique for closed loop assemblies, was applied to the same problem set. The results of the comparison show that the DLM is accurate if the tolerances are relatively small compared to the nominal dimensions of the components, and the assembly functions are not highly nonlinear. Sample size is shown to have great influence on the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulation.

scholarly journals Evaluating network importance measures based on the construction spectrum

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 168781401983083
Author(s):  
Yongjun Du ◽  
Zhenggeng Ye ◽  
Pan Zhang ◽  
Yaqi Guo ◽  
Zhiqiang Cai
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Network Reliability ◽  
Equal Probability ◽  
Numerical Example ◽  
Estimate Reliability ◽  
The Impact

The construction spectrum is a useful tool to investigate the network reliability, which only depends on network structure and is called structure invariant. Importance measures are efficient tools to quantify and rank the impact of edges within a network. This study considers the K-terminal network with n edges and assumes that edges fail with an equal probability. The article focuses on investigating the importance measures of individual edge for the K-terminal network, including reliability achievement worth and reliability reduction worth, via the construction spectrum–based method. Generally, we establish the equations for reliability achievement worth and reliability reduction worth using the construction spectrum and determine the conditions under which the importance rankings generated by reliability achievement worth and reliability reduction worth only depend on the network structure through the construction spectrum. Similar results are obtained with reliability achievement worth and reliability reduction worth for pair of edges. A construction spectrum–based Monte-Carlo simulation is used to estimate reliability achievement worth and reliability reduction worth. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the application of these measures.

scholarly journals Practical Risk Assessment of Ground Vibrations Resulting from Blasting, Using Gene Expression Programming and Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Mahdiyar ◽  
Danial Jahed Armaghani ◽  
Mohammadreza Koopialipoor ◽  
Ahmadreza Hedayat ◽  
Arham Abdullah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Gene Expression Programming ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Blasting Operation ◽  
Simulation Techniques ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Impact

Peak particle velocity (PPV) is a critical parameter for the evaluation of the impact of blasting operations on nearby structures and buildings. Accurate estimation of the amount of PPV resulting from a blasting operation and its comparison with the allowable ranges is an integral part of blasting design. In this study, four quarry sites in Malaysia were considered, and the PPV was simulated using gene expression programming (GEP) and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Data from 149 blasting operations were gathered, and as a result of this study, a PPV predictive model was developed using GEP to be used in the simulation. In order to ensure that all of the combinations of input variables were considered, 10,000 iterations were performed, considering the correlations among the input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the minimum and maximum PPV amounts were 1.13 mm/s and 34.58 mm/s, respectively. Two types of sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the sensitivity of the PPV results based on the effective variables. In addition, this study proposes a method specific to the four case studies, and presents an approach which could be readily applied to similar applications with different conditions.

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