Study on Estimating Failure Probability of Earth-Rock Dams

2012 ◽  
Vol 594-597 ◽  
pp. 1957-1960
Author(s):  
Rui Rui Sun ◽  
Xiao Ling Wang ◽  
Xue Fei Ao ◽  
Wei Ping Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
South China ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Risk Quantification ◽  
The Earth

Dam safety based on risk analysis methodologies demands risk quantification of the earth-rock dam project, and estimation on the failure probability of earth-rock dams is a major concern in the dam safety management. Due to numerous uncertainties, structures of the reservoir are involved leading to risks that may finally cause dam failure. The risk identification was firstly investigated according to the actual project. Subsequently, method of expertise was presented to estimate odds of the presence of each link in dam failure modes quantitatively. The reservoir composed of several dams in South China was taken as a case. The failure probabilities of each dam were obtained and results showed that risk of No.5 dam was relatively higher in all the dams. The research is of great significance to the dam safety management.

Research on High Arch Dam Failure Probability Based on Failure Mode

2007 ◽  
Vol 348-349 ◽  
pp. 597-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zai Tie Chen ◽  
Qing Wen Ren
Keyword(s):  
Failure Mode ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Arch Dam ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
High Arch Dam

In order to overcome the weakness in traditional high arch dam safety evaluation without considering the randomness, failure mode and risk analysis, it is proposed to apply three indexes namely failure probability, economic loss and life loss to high arch dam safety evaluation. On the basis of the analysis of accidents and on-site measured data, expert discussion as well as analytical analogy and by means of Fault Tree Analysis, a probe is made into the four major failure modes and the causes of high arch dam failure, namely destabilization collapse, shear-slipping collapse, excess cracking and man-caused destruction. Based on the calculating of the probability of high arch dam shearing-slipping failure, the computational method and procedures are established by means of Second Moment Method for the calculation of the occurrence probability of the major failure modes of high arch dam. A study is made of the degree of correlation between the major failure modes and of the method for calculating the high arch dam failure probability under multi-failure-modes.

Implementation of Dam Safety Management Program in Malaysia: From Theory to Practice

2014 ◽  
Vol 567 ◽  
pp. 583-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lariyah Mohd Sidek ◽  
Hidayah Basri ◽  
Sivadass Thiruchelvam ◽  
Sabri Muda Rahsidi ◽  
Abdul Razad Azwin Zailti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Safety Program ◽  
Utility Company ◽  
Emergency Response Plan ◽  
The People

Dam plays vital roles to mankind since the beginning of civilization. It serves the purpose for water supply, irrigation, hydropower and flood control. Despite the benefits of dam served over a decade, dams also poses high risk especially to the people downstream, as it may fail due to several failure modes, such as flood loading, earthquake and piping failure. History proved that dam failure has caused catastrophic impact to the people and environment. The dam owner is responsible to ensure that their dam is safe to the public and environment. In Malaysia, the key utility company, Tenaga Nasional Berhad has proactively played its role as the owner of the largest hydropower scheme by spearheading the effort of developing its own dam safety program. This paper revolves around the journey of TNB in developing an Emergency Response Plan (ERP) as part of their dam safety program.

scholarly journals Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 2117-2139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín ◽  
Adrián Morales-Torres ◽  
Ignacio Escuder-Bueno ◽  
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Risk Management Framework ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than just a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.

Study on dam risk classification in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingbo Zhou ◽  
Jianping Zhou ◽  
Xiaohu Du ◽  
Shouyi Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Potential Damage ◽  
Dam Risk

With the increasing number of dams and the age of older dams, the issues of dam safety are becoming more prominent. The potential dam safety problem is not only a security issue but also a an issue of risk for areas downstream of dams. Therefore, risk management is the core of dam safety administration. Dam risk classification is an important part of risk management that should consider the probability of dam failure and the risk of loss (potential damage). This paper summarizes research on dam risk classification and finds that ‘three degrees’ and ‘four degrees’ of dam risk classification are used widely in developed countries or districts. It proposes that four degrees of risk could be adopted by the risk matrix approach for the current situation and relevant regulations of China. It might make the dam safety management more efficient and have a certain guiding significance in establishing the standard of dam risk classification in China.

scholarly journals Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijun Liu ◽  
Zhenyu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Earth Dams ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Seismic Landslides ◽  
Rockfill Dam ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Dam Overtopping

For modern high earth dams, sufficient safety margin is considered in the designs of flood discharge capacity and dam crest elevation to prevent flood overtopping. However, for high earth dams which may induce catastrophic consequences, during their long operational period, extremely hazardous scenarios which could occur and threaten dam safety need to be considered. For the earth dams located in areas with intensive seismicity, there is a possible scenario that the release structures fail due to seismic landslides and gate failures caused by a severe earthquake when the flood begins to enter the reservoir. Thus, it is desirable to investigate the influence of failure duration of release structures on dam overtopping risk. Based on the Bayesian network, a methodology for overtopping risk analysis of earth dams considering effects of failure duration of release structures is proposed. The overtopping risk of the PBG earth-rockfill dam was analyzed to illustrate the methodology. The critical release structures which dominate the dam overtopping risk are identified. The dam overtopping risk is most sensitive to the failure duration of the spillway. The tolerable failure duration of the spillway is approximately 3 days, and when the failure duration of the spillway reaches 4 days, the dam overtopping risk drastically rises to an unacceptable level. The case study suggests that the proposed methodology could be helpful to analyze the influences of possible failure durations of release structures on dam overtopping risk and could facilitate preparation for emergency plans.

Incorporation of a time-dependent risk analysis approach to dam safety management

2019 ◽  
pp. 2384-2392 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Fluixá-Sanmartín ◽  
A. Morales-Torres ◽  
L. Altarejos-García ◽  
I. Escuder-Bueno
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Analysis Approach ◽  
Dam Safety

scholarly journals Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín ◽  
Adrián Morales-Torres ◽  
Ignacio Escuder-Bueno ◽  
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Risk Management Framework ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than by a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.

The Economic Loss Estimate of Dam Break Based on 2D Dam Break-Wave Numerical Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 405-408 ◽  
pp. 2457-2462
Author(s):  
Zhao Wei Shen ◽  
Cun Hong Pan ◽  
Sui Gao Ye ◽  
Hai Yan Lu ◽  
Li Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Regional Economy ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Flux Vector ◽  
Flux Vector Splitting ◽  
Loss Estimate ◽  
2D Numerical Model

A 2D numerical model based on Boltzmann equation and an unstructured FVM grid with a kinetic flux vector splitting (KFVS) scheme was developed to simulate dam break-wave. As an example, propagation of the dam-break wave of one reservoir dam at Yuhang District of Hangzhou in Hangzhou was simulated by this model. Using regional economy, population, and geography data of 2008, the economic loss caused by dam failure was evaluated. The result shows that total economic loss is about 20% of the GDP in Yuhang, which is close to the conclusion of some existing researches. It is foreseeable that this method would to be used more widely in Zhejiang for dam safety management.

Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Evaluation: Hydrologic Risk.

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jery Stedinger ◽  
David C. Heath ◽  
Kay Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Dam Safety

Assessing the Risk of Noncompliance in Wastewater Treatment

1992 ◽  
Vol 26 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1411-1420 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. H. Choudhury ◽  
S. L. Yu ◽  
Y. Y. Haimes
Keyword(s):  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Wastewater Treatment Plant ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
System Component ◽  
System Failure ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Risk Quantification ◽  
Failure Probabilities

This paper presents an integrated methodology that allows determining the probability of noncompliance for a given wastewater treatment plant. The methodology applies fault-tree analysis, which uses failure probabilities of individual components, to predict the overall system failure probability. The methodology can be divided into two parts : risk identification and risk quantification. In risk identification, the key components in the system are determined by analyzing the contribution of individual component failures toward system failure (i.e., noncompliance). In risk quantification, a fault-tree model is constructed for the particular system, component failure probabilities are estimated, and the fault-tree model is evaluated to determine the probability of occurrence of the top event (i.e., noncompliance). A list can be developed that ranks critical events on the basis of their contributions to the probability of noncompliance. Such a ranking should assist managers to determine which components require most attention for a better performance of the entire system. A wastewater treatment plant for treating metal-bearing rinse water from an electroplating industry is used as an example to demonstrate the application of this methodology.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document