Climate change and species distribution: possible scenarios for thermophilic ticks in Romania

Several zoonotic tick-borne diseases are emerging in Europe due to various factors, including changes of the cultural landscape, increasing human populations, variation of social habits and climate change. We have modelled the potential range changes for two thermophilic tick species (Hyalomma marginatum and Rhipicephalus annulatus) by use of MaxEnt® and 15 climatic predictors, taking into account the aptitude for future climatic change in Romania. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the short term (up to 2050) and in the long term (up to 2070), together with possible changes also of the other climatic factors (e.g. precipitation), and may lead to higher zoonotic risks associated with an expansion of the range of the target species. Three different models were constructed (the present, 2050 and 2070) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gas scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The most dramatic scenario (RCP8.5) produced the highest increase in the probable distribution range for both species. In concordance with similar continental-wide studies, both tick species displayed a shift of distribution towards previously cooler areas of Romania. In most scenarios, this would lead to wider ranges; from 9.7 to 43.1% for H. marginatum, and from 53.4 to 205.2% for R annulatus. Although the developed models demonstrate a good predictive power, the issue of species ecology should also be considered.

Download Full-text

Vertical Differences in the Long-Term Trends and Breakpoints of NDVI and Climate Factors in Taiwan

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13224707 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (22) ◽

pp. 4707

Author(s):

Hui Ping Tsai ◽

Geng-Gui Wang ◽

Zhong-Han Zhuang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Central Regions ◽

Long Term Trends

This study explored the long-term trends and breakpoints of vegetation, rainfall, and temperature in Taiwan from overall and regional perspectives in terms of vertical differences from 1982 to 2012. With time-series Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and Taiwan Climate Change Estimate and Information Platform (TCCIP) gridded monthly climatic data, their vertical dynamics were investigated by employing the Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) algorithm, Pearson’s correlation analysis, and the Durbin–Watson test. The vertical differences in NDVI values presented three breakpoints and a consistent trend from positive (1982 to 1989) to negative at varied rates, and then gradually increased after 2000. In addition, a positive rainfall trend was discovered. Average and maximum temperature had similar increasing trends, while minimum temperature showed variations, especially at higher altitudes. In terms of regional variations, the vegetation growth was stable in the north but worse in the central region. Higher elevations revealed larger variations in the NDVI and temperature datasets. NDVI, along with average and minimum temperature, showed their largest changes earlier in higher altitude areas. Specifically, the increasing minimum temperature direction was more prominent in the mid-to-high-altitude areas in the eastern and central regions. Seasonal variations were observed for each region. The difference between the dry and wet seasons is becoming larger, with the smallest difference in the northern region and the largest difference in the southern region. Taiwan’s NDVI and climatic factors have a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05), but the maximum and minimum temperatures have significant positive effects at low altitudes below 500 m. The northern and central regions reveal similar responses, while the south and east display different feedbacks. The results illuminate climate change evidence from assessment of the long-term dynamics of vegetation and climatic factors, providing valuable references for establishing correspondent climate-adaptive strategies in Taiwan.

Download Full-text

Religion and Climate Change: Rain Rituals in Israel, China, and Haiti

Religions ◽

10.3390/rel11110554 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 554

Author(s):

Gerald Murray ◽

Haiyan Xing

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northwest China ◽

Human Populations ◽

Climate Fluctuations ◽

African Rainfall ◽

Urban Minorities ◽

Anthropological Fieldwork ◽

Religious Systems ◽

Climate Crisis

Human populations confront three distinct climate challenges: (1) seasonal climate fluctuations, (2) sporadic climate crises, and (3) long term climate change. Religious systems often attribute climate crises to the behavior of invisible spirits. They devise rituals to influence the spirits, and do so under the guidance of religious specialists. They devise two types of problem-solving rituals: anticipatory climate maintenance rituals, to request adequate rainfall in the forthcoming planting season, and climate crisis rituals for drought or inundations. The paper compares rainfall rituals in three different settings: Israel (Judaism), Northwest China (ethnic village religion), and Haiti (Vodou). Each author has done anthropological fieldwork in one or more of these settings. In terms of the guiding conceptual paradigm, the analysis applies three sequentially organized analytic operations common in anthropology: (1) detailed description of individual ethnographic systems; (2) comparison and contrast of specific elements in different systems; and (3) attempts at explanation of causal forces shaping similarities and differences. Judaism has paradoxically maintained obligatory daily prayers for rain in Israel during centuries when most Jews lived as urban minorities in the diaspora, before the founding of Israel in 1948. The Tu of Northwest China maintain separate ethnic temples for rainfall rituals not available in the Buddhist temples that all attend. The slave ancestors of Haiti, who incorporated West African rituals into Vodou, nonetheless excluded African rainfall rituals. We attribute this exclusion to slavery itself; slaves have little interest in performing rituals for the fertility of the fields of their masters. At the end of the paper, we identify the causal factors that propelled each systems into a climate-management trajectory different from that of the others. We conclude by identifying a common causal factor that exerts a power over religion in general and that has specifically influenced the climate responses of all three religious systems.

Download Full-text

Climate change threatens the survival of highly endangered Sardinian populations of the snake Hemorrhois hippocrepis

Animal Biology ◽

10.1163/157075511x584191 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 61 (3) ◽

pp. 239-248 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Massimo Capula ◽

Luca Luiselli ◽

Pierluigi Bombi ◽

Manuela D'Amen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Present Condition ◽

Potential Range ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Anthropogenic Habitat ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Habitat Suitability Map

Abstract Sardinian populations of the snake Hemorrhois (= Coluber) hippocrepis are likely the most endangered populations of snakes in Italy. Major threats to survivorship are the anthropogenic habitat alteration and the extremely low population density, while nothing is known about the potential effects that climate change could exert on this species. The main goal of this paper is to provide helpful instruments for the short- and long-term conservation of H. hippocrepis in Sardinia. By means of an ecological modeling approach, we derived the Sardinian whip snake habitat suitability map, and we compared the potential range extent under present condition and future climatic scenarios. Results clearly show an alarming trend for H. hippocrepis conservation: changing climate conditions will cause a dramatic reduction on suitable surface since 2020, with a further collapse by 2050 (down to 11 km2). We also identified areas of species potential persistence up till 2050, where prospective management initiatives could have the greatest probability of success in this region. In particular, only one existing protected area will likely still keep suitable habitats for H. hippocrepis. Therefore, we suggest that very careful management of this relictual area should be implemented by now if we really want to save these exceedingly threatened snake populations.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on long-term zooplankton biomass in the upwelling region of the Gulf of Guinea

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsn042 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 65 (3) ◽

pp. 318-324 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

George Wiafe ◽

Hawa B. Yaqub ◽

Martin A. Mensah ◽

Christopher L. J. Frid

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Zooplankton Community ◽

Zooplankton Biomass ◽

Gulf Of Guinea ◽

Zooplankton Community Structure ◽

Impact Of Climate Change

Abstract Wiafe, G., Yaqub, H. B., Mensah, M. A., and Frid, C. L. J. 2008. Impact of climate change on long-term zooplankton biomass in the upwelling region of the Gulf of Guinea. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 318–324. We investigated long-term changes in coastal zooplankton in the upwelling region in the Gulf of Guinea, 1969–1992, in relation to climatic and biotic factors. We considered the role of hydrographic and climatic factors, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, sea level pressure, windfield, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in the long-term variation of zooplankton in a multiple regression analysis, along with the abundance of Sardinella. Annual variation in zooplankton biomass was cyclical, with the annual peak occurring during the major upwelling season, July–September. Over the 24-year period, there was a downward trend in zooplankton biomass (equivalent to 6.33 ml per 1000 m3 per year). The decomposed trend in SST during the major upwelling revealed gradual warming of surface waters. This trend was believed to be the main influence on the abundance of the large copepod Calanoides carinatus (sensitive to temperatures above 23°C), which appears in the coastal waters only during the major upwelling season. The warming trend associated with global climate change could affect zooplankton community structure, especially during the major upwelling season. Global warming coupled with “top–down” (predation) control by Sardinella might be responsible for the long-term decline in zooplankton biomass in the upwelling region of the Gulf of Guinea.

Download Full-text

Combined Impact of Climate Change and Land Qualities on Winter Wheat Yield in Central Fore-Caucasus: The Long-Term Retrospective Study

Land ◽

10.3390/land10121339 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 1339

Author(s):

Vasilii Erokhin ◽

Alexander Esaulko ◽

Elena Pismennaya ◽

Evgeny Golosnoy ◽

Olga Vlasova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Contributing Factors ◽

Support Tool

Progressing climate change has been increasingly threatening the agricultural sector by compromising the resilience of ecosystems and endangering food security worldwide. Altering patterns of major climatic parameters require the perspectives of agricultural production to be assessed in a holistic way to understand the interactions of climatic and non-climatic factors on crop yield. However, it is difficult to distinguish the direct influence of changing temperature and precipitation on the productivity of crops while simultaneously capturing other contributing factors, such as spatial allocation of agricultural lands, economic conditions of land use, and soil fertility. Wide temporal and spatial fluctuations of climatic impacts substantially complicate the task. In the case of the 170-year retrospective analysis of the winter wheat sector in the south of Russia, this study tackles the challenge by establishing the multiplicative function to estimate crop yields as a long-term result of a combined influence of agricultural output parameters, qualities of soils, and climate variables. It is found that within the climate–land–yield triangle, linkages tighten or weaken depending on the strength of noise effects of economic and social perturbations. Still, the overall pressure of climate change on the cultivation of winter wheat has been aggravating. The inter-territory relocation of areas under crops based on the matching of soil types, precipitation, air temperature, and erodibility of lands is suggested as a climate response option. The approach can be employed as a decision support tool when developing territory-specific land management policies to cope with adverse climate impacts on the winter wheat sector.

Download Full-text

Palaeoenvironmental perspectives for sustainable development in East Africa

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-6-963-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 963-1007 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

R. Marchant ◽

J. Finch ◽

R. Kinyanjui ◽

V. Muiruri ◽

C. Mumbi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

East Africa ◽

Land Tenure ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Co2 Concentration ◽

Human Populations ◽

East African

Abstract. East African ecosystems are shaped by long-term interaction with changing climate, human population, fire and wildlife. There remains today a strong connection between people and ecosystems, a relationship that is being strained by the rapidly developing and growing East African population, and their associated resource needs. Predicted climatic and atmospheric change will further impact on ecosystems culminating in a host of challenges for their management and sustainable development, further compounded by a backdrop of political, land tenure and economic constraints. Given the many direct and indirect benefits that ecosystems provide to surrounding human populations, understanding how they have changed over time and space deserves a special place on the ecosystem management agenda. Such a perspective can only be derived from a palaeoecology, particularly where there is high resolution, both through time and across space. The East African palaeoecological archive is reviewed, in particular to assess how it can meet this need. Although there remain crucial gaps, the number of palaeoecological archives from East Africa growing rapidly, some employing new and novel techniques to trace past ecosystem response to climate change. When compared to the archaeological record it is possible to disentangle human from climate change impacts, and how the former interacts with major environmental changes such as increased use of fire, changing herbivore densities and increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. With this multi-dimensional perspective of environmental change impacts it is imperative that our understanding of past human-ecosystem interactions are considered to impart effective long term management strategies; such an approach will enhance possibilities for a sustainable future for East African ecosystems and maximise the livelihoods of the populations that rely on them.

Download Full-text

Perceptions on climate change and its impact on livelihoods in Hwange district, Zimbabwe

Jàmbá Journal of Disaster Risk Studies ◽

10.4102/jamba.v6i1.123 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Charles Nhemachena ◽

Reneth Mano ◽

Shakespear Mudombi ◽

Virginia Muwanigwa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rural Communities ◽

Rural Community ◽

Multiple Stressors ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Short Term ◽

Local Livelihood ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

This study investigated perceptions of rural communities on climate change and its impacts on livelihoods. The research was conducted in the semi-arid Hwange district in Matebelel and North province of Zimbabwe. The perceptions were compared with empirical evidence from climatic studies on trends on temperature and rainfall, and impacts on livelihoods in the country and region. The findings from the current study are generally in agreement with those of other studies that indicate changes in the climate, especially in terms of rainfall. This largely applies to short-term periods; however, for long-term periods it is difficult to accurately relate rural community perceptions to changes in rainfall over time. Despite perceived changes and impacts of climate change on local livelihood activities, mainly agriculture, there are multiple stressors that the communities face which also affect their livelihoods. Further evidence-based research is required to disentangle climate change impacts on livelihoods, including livelihood impacts arising from interactions of climate and non-climatic factors.

Download Full-text

Climate change alone cannot explain altered tick distribution across Europe: a spotlight on endemic and invasive tick species.

10.1079/9781789249637.0018 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 125-131

Author(s):

Frederic Stachurski ◽

Nathalie Boulanger ◽

Adrien Blisnick ◽

Laurence Vial ◽

Sarah Bonnet

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tick Species ◽

Large Scale ◽

External Environment ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climatic Impact ◽

Long Term Monitoring ◽

The Impact ◽

Term Monitoring

Abstract The effect of climate on the evolution of tick populations remains difficult to disentangle from other possible causes and undoubtedly varies depending on the region concerned and local tick species. Large-scale, long-term monitoring is, therefore, necessary to accurately assess climatic impact on tick populations. Climate change can alter tick populations, either indirectly by affecting vertebrate host populations or directly by increasing or decreasing their numbers. These ectoparasites, and in particular hard ticks, spend almost their entire life cycle in the external environment, thus climatic conditions influence their activity, viability and distribution. This expert opinion aims to illustrate the impact of climate change, and its association with other variables, on the distribution and abundance of tick populations in Europe using Ixodes ricinus and Hyalomma marginatum as typical examples of endemic and invasive species, respectively.

Download Full-text

9. Doing something about it

Coral Reefs: A Very Short Introduction ◽

10.1093/actrade/9780198869825.003.0009 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 112-126

Author(s):

Charles Sheppard

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coral Reefs ◽

Good Condition ◽

Resource Extraction ◽

Human Populations ◽

Window Of Opportunity

Several political instruments are in place to tackle effects of climate change and help arrest the global decline of coral reefs. Unfortunately, most are inadequate and anyway are being ignored by many important nations. Rising ocean temperatures are not linear, but act in pulses, so that reefs degrade in steps rather than smoothly. Terminally degraded reefs are now common, and those in very good condition are rare. Several potential solutions have been proposed, none being adequate alone but all being needed to arrest the decline. Arresting the rise in CO2 is a key, long-term requirement, yet levels of this gas are still increasing, as are local requirements such as effective pollution and overfishing controls. Also important is limiting resource extraction, which essentially means limiting human populations. Most scientists consider saving coral reefs now to be a political and sociological problem, not a scientific one. We have lost nearly half the world’s coral reefs and if societies cannot act in what is becoming a diminishing window of opportunity, we will lose most of the rest within another human lifetime.

Download Full-text

Climate change and the genus Rhipicephalus (Acari : Ixodidae) in Africa

Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research ◽

10.4102/ojvr.v74i1.139 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 74 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

J.M. Olwoch ◽

A.S. Van Jaarsveld ◽

C.H. Scholtz ◽

I.G Horak

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Range Expansion ◽

Tick Species ◽

Population Increase ◽

Limited Area ◽

Potential Range ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Climate Envelope ◽

Induced Changes

The suitability of present and future climates for 30 Rhipicephalus species in Africa are predicted using a simple climate envelope model as well as a Division of Atmospheric Research Limited-Area Model (DARLAM). DARLAM's predictions are compared with the mean outcome from two global circulation models. East Africa and South Africa are considered the most vulnerable regions on the continent to climate-induced changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases. More than 50% of the species examined show potential range expansion and more than 70% of this range expansion is found in economically important tick species. More than 20% of the species experienced range shifts of between 50 and 100%. There is also an increase in tick species richness in the south-western regions of the sub-continent. Actual range alterations due to climate change may be even greater since factors like land degradation and human population increase have not been included in this modelling process. However, these predictions are also subject to the effect that climate change may have on the hosts of the ticks, particularly those that favour a restricted range of hosts. Where possible, the anticipated biological implications of the predicted changes are explored.

Download Full-text