Comparing machine learning and linear regression methods for estimating marginal greenhouse gas emission factors of electricity generation with renewables

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Pied ◽  
S Pelland ◽  
S Wong ◽  
D Turcotte ◽  
V Raissi Dehkordi
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Vernooij ◽  
Marcos Vinicius Giongo Alves ◽  
Marco Assis Borges ◽  
Máximo Menezes Costa ◽  
Ana Carolina Sena Barradas ◽  
...  

Abstract. Landscape fires, often referred to as biomass burning (BB), emit substantial amounts of (greenhouse) gases and aerosols into the atmosphere each year. Frequently burning savannas, mostly in Africa, Australia, and South America are responsible for over 60 % of total BB carbon emissions. Compared to many other sources of emissions, fires have a strong seasonality. Previous research has identified the mitigation potential of prescribed fires in savanna ecosystems; by burning early in the dry season when the vegetation has not fully cured, fires are in general patchier and burn less intense. While it is widely accepted that burned area and the total carbon consumed is lower when fires are ignited early in the dry season, little is known about the seasonality of emission factors (EF) of greenhouse gases. This is important because potentially, higher EFs in the early dry season (EDS) could offset some of the carbon benefits of EDS burning. Also, a better understanding of EF seasonality may improve large-scale BB assessments, which to date rely on temporally-static EFs. We used a sampling system mounted on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and cavity ring-down spectroscopy to estimate CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O EFs in the Estação Ecológica Serra Geral do Tocantins in the Brazilian states of Tocantins and Bahia. The protected area contains all major Cerrado vegetation types found in Brazil, and EDS burning was implemented on a large scale since 2014. We collected and analyzed over 800 smoke samples during the EDS and late dry season (LDS). Averaged over all measurements, the modified combustion efficiency (MCE) was slightly higher in the LDS (0.976 vs. 0.972) and the CH4 and CO EFs were 13 % and 15 % lower in the LDS compared to the EDS. This seasonal effect was larger in more wood-dominated vegetation types. N2O EFs showed a more complex seasonal dependency, with opposite seasonal trends for savannas that were dominated by grasses versus those with abundant shrubs. We found that the N2O EF for the open cerrado was less than half of those reported so far in the BB literature for savannas. This may indicate a substantial overestimation of the contribution of fires in the N2O budget. Overall, our data implies that in this region, seasonal variability in greenhouse gas emission factors may offset only a small fraction of the carbon mitigation gains in fire abatement programs.


2021 ◽  
pp. 54-61
Author(s):  
N. V. Popov ◽  
◽  
I. L. Govor ◽  
M. L. Gitarskii ◽  
◽  
...  

The average weighted long-term component composition of associated petroleum gas burned at the fields in Russia is obtained, where the volume fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) make up 0.8 and 66.4%, respectively. Based on it, the national emission factors of greenhouse gases from the flaring of associated petroleum gas are developed: the values are equal to 2.76 103 t CO2 and 0.0155 103 t CH4 per 1 106 m3 of the gas burnt. The calculations based on the emission factors led to the 37% increase in total equivalent emission of CO2 and CH4 as compared to the calculations based on the IPCC emission factors. The use of the national emission factors increases the reliability of the estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and the evaluation of their impact on climate.


2021 ◽  
pp. 089033442199476
Author(s):  
JP Dadhich ◽  
Julie P. Smith ◽  
Alessandro Iellamo ◽  
Adlina Suleiman

Background There is growing recognition that current food systems and policies are environmentally unsustainable. There is an identified need to integrate sustainability objectives into national food policy and dietary recommendations. Research Aims To (1) describe exploratory estimates of greenhouse gas emission factors for all infant and young child milk formula products and (2) estimate national greenhouse gas emission association with commercial milk formulas sold in selected countries in the Asia Pacific region. Method We used a secondary data analysis descriptive design incorporating a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) concepts and methodology to estimate kg CO2 eq. emissions per kg of milk formula, using greenhouse gas emission factors for milk powder, vegetable oils, and sugars identified from a literature review. Proportions of ingredients were calculated using FAO Codex Alimentarius guidance on milk formula products. Estimates were calculated for production and processing of individual ingredients from cradle to factory gate. Annual retail sales data for 2012–2017 was sourced from Euromonitor International for six purposively selected countries; Australia, South Korea, China, Malaysia, India, Philippines. Results Annual emissions for milk formula products ranged from 3.95–4.04 kg CO2 eq. Milk formula sold in the six countries in 2012 contributed 2,893,030 tons CO2 eq. to global greenhouse gas emissions. Aggregate emissions were highest for products (e.g., toddler formula), which dominated sales growth. Projected 2017 emissions for milk formula retailed in China alone were 4,219,052 tons CO2 eq. Conclusions Policies, programs and investments to shift infant and young child diets towards less manufactured milk formula and more breastfeeding are “Triple Duty Actions” that help improve dietary quality and population health and improve the sustainability of the global food system.


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