scholarly journals Global warming and climate change with reference to South Africa. Some perspectives

2008 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gawie De Villiers ◽  
Giel Viljoen ◽  
Herman Booysen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Sufficient Evidence

According to the geological history of the earth, climate change is an integral part of environmental changes that occurred over time. Sufficient evidence is provided of recurrent wet and dry and cold and hot periods due to natural circumstances. Since the industrial revolution human activities increasingly contribute to air pollution by releasing huge volumes of carbon dioxide and other gasses into the atmosphere, so much so that it is generally accepted that increase in global warming the past decades is directly linked to human activities. Observable signs of human induced climate change include increasing average temperatures at many places, melting ice caps in polar areas, rising sea levels on a global scale and coastal disturbances and damages due to storm surges on coastal areas in various countries, also in South Africa. Consensus from a number of hydrological-meteorological circulation models show, for South Africa, a rise in average annual winter and summer temperatures of between 1.5 and 3.0 degrees Centigrade the following number of decades with a strong possibility of an increase in rainfall in the eastern parts and a decrease in rainfall in the western parts. Bigger floods and longer droughts should occur more frequently as well as severe sea onslaught activities along the eastern and south-eastern coastal areas. The net impact of the predictions on the community is negative. There is though other scientists who indicate that no concrete proof of climate change in South Africa exists; including changes with regard to river floods and droughts. According to more beneficial than detrimental. Despite the differences in opinion about the relative contribution of natural and human activities to the present global warming, changes in hydrological and characteristics of floods in several parts of South Africa in the immediate past, necessitate modifications to available models and approaches to flood damage management and control. Flood conditions need to be managed with applicable models. Modifications are furthermore essential as a result of meaningful demographic, social, physical and economic changes in the working and living environments of people and communities.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change on spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone tracks and their implications for coastal agriculture in Myanmar

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akira Hirano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

AbstractImportant aspects for understanding the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) are the frequency of TCs and their tracking patterns. Coastal areas are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels and associated storm surges brought on by TCs. Rice production in Myanmar relies strongly on low-lying coastal areas. This study aims to provide insights into the effects of global warming on TCs and the implications for sustainable development in vulnerable coastal areas in Myanmar. Using TC records from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship dataset during the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012, a hot spot analysis based on Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics was conducted to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of TC tracks along the coast of Myanmar. The results revealed notable changes in some areas along the central to southern coasts during the study period. These included a considerable increase in TC tracks (p value < 0.01) near the Ayeyarwady Delta coast, otherwise known as “the rice bowl” of the nation. This finding aligns with trends in published studies and reinforced the observed trends with spatial statistics. With the intensification of TCs due to global warming, such a significant increase in TC experiences near the major rice-producing coastal region raises concerns about future agricultural sustainability.

scholarly journals A Subregional Model of System Dynamics Research on Surface Water Resource Assessment for Paddy Rice Production under Climate Change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Tuu Nguyen Thanh ◽  
Van Pham Dang Tri ◽  
Seungdo Kim ◽  
Thuy Nguyen Phuong ◽  
Thuy Lam Mong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Dry Season

Effective water management plays an important role in socioeconomic development in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). The impacts of climate change and human activities (that is, domestic consumption and industrial and agricultural activities) vary in different subregions of the delta. In order to provide intersectoral data for determining the significantly impacted subregions of the VMD, the present study simulated interactions between local climatic patterns, human activities, and water resources using a system dynamics modeling (SDM) approach with each subregion as an agent of the developed model. The average rainfall and temperature of 121 subregions in the VMD were collected during 1982–2012, and the future changes of climate by provinces were based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by the end of 21st century. The assessment was based on the levels of impact of various factors, including (1) water consumption, (2) differences between evapotranspiration and rainfall, and (3) spatial distribution of salinity intrusion over the delta scale. In the coastal areas, as well as the central and upstream areas, water resources were projected to be affected by environmental changes, whereas the former, characterized by the lack of surface freshwater, would be affected at a greater scale during the dry season. Besides, the sea level rise would lead to an increase in negative impacts in the eastern coastal areas, suggesting that water-saving techniques should be applied not only for agriculture, but also for industry and domestic water consumption during the dry season. In addition, the south subregions (that is, the western subregions of the Hau River except for An Giang) were likely to be flooded due to the simulated high rainfall and seasonal rises of sea level during the wet season. Therefore, the alternative forms of settlement and livelihood should be considered toward balance management with changing delta dynamics.

scholarly journals The analysis of the relationship between CO2 level and economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Szira Zoltán ◽  
Bárdos Kinga Ilona ◽  
Alghamdi Hani ◽  
Enkhjav Tumentsetseg ◽  
Erika Varga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

2019 was Earth's second warmest year since 1850. In 2019 the global mean temperature was cooler than in 2016, but warmer than any other year explicitly measured. Consequently, 2016 is still the warmest year in historical observation history. Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect natural fluctuations in the short term, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term global warming trend. This would be predicted from global warming caused by greenhouse gases, temperature increase across the globe is broadly spread, impacting almost all areas of land and oceans. Climate change" and "global warming" are often used interchangeably but are of distinct significance. Global warming is the long-term heating of the Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period as a result of human activities, mainly the combustion of fossil fuel, which raises the heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's air. The term is often used interchangeably with the term climate change, as the latter applies to warming caused both humanly and naturally, and the impact it has on our planet. This is most generally calculated as the average increase in global surface temperature on Earth. Carbon dioxide emission is one of the main reasons for global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, human sources of carbon dioxide emissions have been growing. Human activities such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation are the primary cause of the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In our research, let’s examine the relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the GDP/capita in developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals Creating the Healthiest Nation: Climate Change and Environmental Health Impacts in Nigeria: A Narrative Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. p61
Author(s):  
Morufu Olalekan Raimi ◽  
Tonye Vivien Odubo ◽  
Adedoyin Oluwatoyin Omidiji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

Climate change is a “threat multiplier and a prime cause of universal threat to health in the 21st century, including 4th industrial revolution. The health effects of climate change will increase dramatically over the next few years and pose a risk to human life and the well-being of billions of people. As we all know, the milieu is fundamental to our sustained earth survival and environmental changes (natural and artificial) affect it either to the benefit or detriment of humans. Climate change is one of such changes in the physical environment which has grave consequences for the existence of mankind. Climate change is interestingly, no longer a speculative subject. There is a good international scientific consensus existing to show that this phenomenon is real and if recent global warming movements continue, temperature rise, ocean levels and more frequently weather conditions that is extreme (storms, heat-waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, etc.) may perhaps cause severe food shortages, loss of shelter, water, livelihoods, extinction of flora and fauna species. In the recent past, the earth has witnessed devastating weather-related events in different portions of the globe including hurricanes (e.g., Katrina and Rita in USA), tsunamis, typhoons, flooding especially in the Asian Continent, wild fires especially in Australia, USA, etc. Currently, the on-going flood incident in Pakistan that has so far claimed about 1,600 lives and rendered another four million people homeless is a sad reminder of the ugly and devastating consequences of global warming on the environment. There is no gainsaying the fact that humankind is paying dearly for the massive alterations in the environment that have induced changes in climate. This is because of frequent incidence of changes in climate related disasters in the world today. There is hardly any month that passes without an incident occurring in one part of the globe or another since the advent of the 21st century. Changes in climate has significant and potentially devastating health consequences, whether through direct actions (e.g., deaths resulting from heat wave and weather disasters) or disruption of complex biological methods (e.g., changes in infectious diseases patterns, supplies in fresh water and production of food).The report of the fourth assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have globally submitted that “it is estimated that the health of millions of people is affected, for instance, malnutrition increases; deaths increase, diseases and injury; burden of increase diarrheal diseases; frequency of increased cardio-respiratory diseases caused by high levels of ground-level ozone in cities due to climate change; besides altered spatial distribution of some communicable diseases”. The association amongst changes in climate, its drivers, systemic effects, health and socioeconomic growth, mitigation and adaptation has been specified.

Diatoms in Saline Lakes Paleoclimate and Paleoecology Interpretations

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 149-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik J. Ekdahl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Light Availability ◽  
Ionic Concentration ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Environmental Response

Average global temperatures are predicted to rise over the next century and changes in precipitation, humidity, and drought frequency will likely accompany this global warming. Understanding associated changes in continental precipitation and temperature patterns in response to global change is an important component of long-range environmental planning. For example, agricultural management plans that account for decreased precipitation over time will be less susceptible to the effects of drought through implementation of water conservation techniques.A detailed understanding of environmental response to past climate change is key to understanding environmental changes associated with global climate change. To this end, diatoms are sensitive to a variety of limnologic parameters, including nutrient concentration, light availability, and the ionic concentration and composition of the waters that they live in (e.g. salinity). Diatoms from numerous environments have been used to reconstruct paleosalinity levels, which in turn have been used as a proxy records for regional and local paleoprecipitation. Long-term records of salinity or paleoprecipitation are valuable in reconstructing Quaternary paleoclimate, and are important in terms of developing mitigation strategies for future global climate change. High-resolution paleoclimate records are also important in groundtruthing global climate simulations, especially in regions where the consequences of global warming may be severe.

scholarly journals Greening Implication Inferred from Vegetation Dynamics Interacted with Climate Change and Human Activities over the Southeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 2421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Liu ◽  
Liu ◽  
Li ◽  
Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Ecological Environment ◽  
Upstream Region ◽  
High Mountain

Vegetation dynamics are sensitive to climate change and human activities, as vegetation interacts with the hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The Yarlung Zangbo River (YZR) basin, with the vulnerable ecological environment, has experienced a series of natural disasters since the new millennium. Therefore, in this study, the vegetation dynamic variations and their associated responses to environmental changes in the YZR basin were investigated based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data from 2000 to 2016. Results showed that (1) the YZR basin showed an obvious vegetation greening process with a significant increase of the growing season NDVI (Zc = 2.31, p < 0.05), which was mainly attributed to the wide greening tendency of the downstream region that accounted for over 50% area of the YZR basin. (2) Regions with significant greening accounted for 25.4% of the basin and were mainly concentrated in the Nyang River and Parlung Tsangpo River sub-basins. On the contrary, the browning regions accounted for <25% of the basin and were mostly distributed in the urbanized cities of the midstream, implying a significant influence of human activities on vegetation greening. (3) The elevation dependency of the vegetation in the YZR basin was significant, showing that the vegetation of the low-altitude regions was better than that of the high-altitude regions. The greening rate exhibited a significantly more complicated relationship with the elevation, which increased with elevated altitude (above 3500 m) and decreased with elevated altitude (below 3500 m). (4) Significantly positive correlations between the growing season NDVI and surface air temperature were detected, which were mainly distributed in the snow-dominated sub-basins, indicating that glaciers and snow melting processes induced by global warming play an important role in vegetation growth. Although basin-wide non-significant negative correlations were found between precipitation and growing season NDVI, positive influences of precipitation on vegetation greening occurred in the arid and semi-arid upstream region. These findings could provide important information for ecological environment protection in the YZR basin and other high mountain regions.

scholarly journals Threshold effects of hazard mitigation in coastal human–environmental systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. D. Lazarus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Hazard Mitigation ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Coupling Mechanism ◽  
Environmental Systems

Abstract. Despite improved scientific insight into physical and social dynamics related to natural disasters, the financial cost of extreme events continues to rise. This paradox is particularly evident along developed coastlines, where future hazards are projected to intensify with consequences of climate change, and where the presence of valuable infrastructure exacerbates risk. By design, coastal hazard mitigation buffers human activities against the variability of natural phenomena such as storms. But hazard mitigation also sets up feedbacks between human and natural dynamics. This paper explores developed coastlines as exemplary coupled human–environmental systems in which hazard mitigation is the key coupling mechanism. Results from a simplified numerical model of an agent-managed seawall illustrate the nonlinear effects that economic and physical thresholds can impart into coastal human–environmental system dynamics. The scale of mitigation action affects the time frame over which human activities and natural hazards interact. By accelerating environmental changes observable in some settings over human timescales of years to decades, climate change may temporarily strengthen the coupling between human and environmental dynamics. However, climate change could ultimately result in weaker coupling at those human timescales as mitigation actions increasingly engage global-scale systems.

Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque Lozano ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mean Sea Level

&lt;p&gt;Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.&lt;/p&gt;

Midwinter breakup and jamming on the upper Saint John River: a case study

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos ◽  
Sayed Ismail ◽  
Brian C Burrell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Damage Reduction ◽  
Saint John

Changing climates will likely result in more frequent midwinter ice jams along many Canadian rivers, thereby increasing the likelihood of flood damage and environmental changes. Therefore, the possibility of more frequent ice jams has to be considered during the planning of flood damage reduction measures, the design of waterway structures, and the enactment of measures to protect the environment. As a case study of midwinter jamming, four winter breakup and jamming events that occurred along an upper stretch of the Saint John River during the 1990s are described and the implications of similar midwinter jamming are discussed.Key words: breakup, river ice, climate change, ice jamming, ice thickness, winter, winter thaw.

scholarly journals Threshold effects of hazard mitigation in coastal human–environmental systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 503-530
Author(s):  
E. D. Lazarus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Hazard Mitigation ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Coupling Mechanism ◽  
Environmental Systems

Abstract. Despite improved scientific insight into physical and social dynamics related to natural disasters, the financial cost of extreme events continues to rise. This paradox is particularly evident along developed coastlines, where future hazards are projected to intensify with consequences of climate change, and where the presence of valuable infrastructure exacerbates risk. By design, coastal hazard mitigation buffers human activities against the variability of natural phenomena such as storms. But hazard mitigation also sets up feedbacks between human and natural dynamics. This paper explores developed coastlines as exemplary coupled human–environmental systems in which hazard mitigation is the key coupling mechanism. Results from a simplified numerical model of an agent-managed seawall illustrate the nonlinear effects that economic and physical thresholds can impart into coupled-system dynamics. The scale of mitigation action affects the time frame over which human activities and natural hazards interact. By accelerating environmental changes observable in some settings over human time scales of years to decades, climate change may temporarily strengthen the coupling between human and environmental dynamics. However, climate change could ultimately result in weaker coupling at those human time scales as mitigation actions increasingly engage global-scale systems.

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