scholarly journals Forecasting Diabetes Patients Attendance at Al-Baha Hospitals Using Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 183-194
Author(s):  
Salem Al Zahrani ◽  
Fath Al Rahman Al Sameeh ◽  
Abdulaziz C. M. Musa ◽  
Ashaikh A. A. Shokeralla
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arfima Models ◽  
Diabetes Patients

scholarly journals Directional dependency and coastal framework geology: implications for barrier island resilience

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1139-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillipe A. Wernette ◽  
Chris Houser ◽  
Bradley A. Weymer ◽  
Mark E. Everett ◽  
Michael P. Bishop ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Management ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Barrier Island ◽  
Arfima Models ◽  
Societal Pressure ◽  
Dune Morphology ◽  
Padre Island ◽  
National Seashore

Abstract. Barrier island transgression is influenced by the alongshore variation in beach and dune morphology, which determines the amount of sediment moved landward through wash-over. While several studies have demonstrated how variations in dune morphology affect island response to storms, the reasons for that variation and the implications for island management remain unclear. This paper builds on previous research by demonstrating that paleo-channels in the irregular framework geology can have a directional influence on alongshore beach and dune morphology. The influence of relict paleo-channels on beach and dune morphology on Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, was quantified by isolating the long-range dependence (LRD) parameter in autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models, originally developed for stock market economic forecasting. ARFIMA models were fit across ∼250 unique spatial scales and a moving window approach was used to examine how LRD varied with computational scale and location along the island. The resulting LRD matrices were plotted by latitude to place the results in the context of previously identified variations in the framework geology. Results indicate that the LRD is not constant alongshore for all surface morphometrics. Many flares in the LRD plots correlate to relict infilled paleo-channels, indicating that the framework geology has a significant influence on the morphology of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS). Barrier island surface morphology LRD is strongest at large paleo-channels and decreases to the north. The spatial patterns in LRD surface morphometrics and framework geology variations demonstrate that the influence of paleo-channels can be asymmetric (i.e., affecting beach–dune morphology preferentially in one direction alongshore) where the alongshore sediment transport gradient was unidirectional during island development. The asymmetric influence of framework geology on coastal morphology has long-term implications for coastal management activities because it dictates the long-term behavior of a barrier island. Coastal management projects should first seek to assess the framework geology and understand how it influences coastal processes in order to more effectively balance long-term natural variability with short-term societal pressure.

scholarly journals Long-range dependence in coastal framework geology: Asymmetries and implications for barrier island resiliency

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillipe Wernette ◽  
Chris Houser ◽  
Bradley Weymer ◽  
Mark Everett ◽  
Michael Bishop ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Coastal Management ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Barrier Island ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
The North ◽  
Arfima Models ◽  
Societal Pressure ◽  
Dune Morphology

Abstract. Barrier island transgression is influenced by the alongshore variation in beach and dune morphology, which determines the amount of sediment moved landward through washover. While several studies have demonstrated how variations in dune morphology affect island response to storms, the reasons for that variation and the implications for island management remain unclear. This paper builds on previous research by demonstrating that the framework geology can influence beach and dune morphology asymmetrically alongshore. The influence of relict paleo-channels on beach and dune morphology on Padre Island National Seashore, Texas was quantified by isolating the long-range dependence (LRD) parameter in autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. ARFIMA models were fit across all scales and a moving window approach was used to examine how LRD varied with computational scale and location along the island. The resulting LRD matrices were plotted by latitude to place the results in context of previously identified variations in the framework geology. Results indicate that the LRD is not constant alongshore for all surface morphometrics. Many flares in the LRD plots correlate to relict infilled paleo-channels in the framework geology, indicating that the framework geology has a significant influence on the morphology of PAIS. Barrier island surface morphology LRD is strongest at large paleo-channels and decreases to the north. The spatial patterns in LRD surface morphometrics and framework geology variations demonstrate that the influence of paleo-channels in the framework geology can be asymmetric where the alongshore sediment transport gradient was unidirectional during island development. The asymmetric influence of framework geology on coastal morphology has long-term implications for coastal management activities because it dictates the long-term behavior of a barrier island. Coastal management projects should first seek to understand how the framework geology influences coastal processes in order to more effectively balance long-term natural variability with short-term societal pressure.

scholarly journals Forecasting of New Cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models

2020 ◽  
pp. 135-146
Author(s):  
Olumide Sunday Adesina ◽  
Samson Adeniyi Onanaye ◽  
Dorcas Okewole ◽  
Amanze C. Egere
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Arfima Models ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moving Average Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Arfima Model

The emergence of global pandemic known as COVID-19 has impacted significantly on human lives and measures have been taken by government all over the world to minimize the rate of spread of the virus, one of which is by enforcing lockdown. In this study, Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) Models was used to model and forecast what the daily new cases of COVID-19 would have been ten days after the lockdown was eased in Nigeria and compare to the actual new cases for the period when the lockdown was eased.  The proposed model ARFIMA model was compared with ARIMA (1, 0, 0), and ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and found to outperform the classical ARIMA models based on AIC and BIC values. The results show that the rate of spread of COVID-19 would have been significantly less if the strict lockdown had continued. ARFIMA model was further used to model what new cases of COVID-19 would be ten days ahead starting from 31st of August 2020. Therefore, this study recommends that government should further enforce measures to reduce the spread of the virus if business must continue as usual.

scholarly journals EWMA Control Chart Using Repetitive Sampling for Monitoring Blood Glucose Levels in Type-II Diabetes Patients

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aslam ◽  
Gadde Srinivasa Rao ◽  
Nasrullah Khan ◽  
Fahad A. Al-Abbasi
Keyword(s):  
Blood Glucose ◽  
Control Chart ◽  
Type Ii Diabetes ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Glucose Levels ◽  
Ewma Control Chart ◽  
Blood Glucose Levels ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Diabetes Patients

In this paper, we discuss the application of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart for the monitoring blood glucose in type-II diabetes patients. We present tables for the practical use in healthcare. From the simulation results and a real example, the efficiency of the proposed chart in detecting a shift in diabetic level is compared with the existing chart. It is found that the proposed chart provides a strict method to monitor the diabetic levels in diabetes patients. From the simulation results and a real example, it is concluded that the use of the proposed chart in health care issues may reduce the risk of heart disease by monitoring diabetic levels in an effective way.

Automatic Identification of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Time Series

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin-Sheng Alan Kang ◽  
David D. Bedworth ◽  
Dwayne A. Rollier
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Automatic Identification ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Smoothing Facilitates the Detection of Coupled Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joni Kettunen ◽  
Niklas Ravaja ◽  
Liisa Keltikangas-Järvinen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Type I Error ◽  
Electrodermal Activity ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Type I ◽  
Facial Electromyography ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Smoothing Methods ◽  
Response Systems ◽  
Different Response

Abstract We examined the use of smoothing to enhance the detection of response coupling from the activity of different response systems. Three different types of moving average smoothers were applied to both simulated interbeat interval (IBI) and electrodermal activity (EDA) time series and to empirical IBI, EDA, and facial electromyography time series. The results indicated that progressive smoothing increased the efficiency of the detection of response coupling but did not increase the probability of Type I error. The power of the smoothing methods depended on the response characteristics. The benefits and use of the smoothing methods to extract information from psychophysiological time series are discussed.

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