EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND THE SEARCH FOR DIVERSIFICATION IN ZAMBIA

2002 ◽  
pp. 147-164
Keyword(s):  
2011 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
M. Ershov

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.


2016 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich ◽  
I. Sokolov

In-depth analysis of international and Russia’s experiences with implementing fiscal rules is presented. Theoretical and empirical evidences are suggested in favor of retaining the present fiscal rules with some modifications aimed at ensuring: a) a relatively stable level of federal budget expenditure with guaranteed full execution of all commitments; b) countercyclical fiscal policy, based on flexibleand proper reaction to revenue changes; and c) robustness of fiscal rules to internal and external shocks. The main new features suggested include modified calculation of the oil base price, different measurement of cyclical fiscal revenues, lower size of structural fiscal balance, and thorough specification of sources for each item of the balance. The modified rules envisage increased flexibility by relaxing to a pre-set extent and for a pre-set time spending limits in response to extreme shocks. The suggested version of fiscal rules has been tested by application to historical data for 2005-2015, and macro projections for 2015-2025.


2019 ◽  
pp. 90-96
Author(s):  
M.P. Tskhovrebov ◽  
A.S. Tanasova

The article is devoted to the «Trilemma» of the policy of the monetary authorities, or the «rule of impossible trinity». This policy compatibility rule, formulated more than 50 years ago, remains relevant today. Its reliability is generally confirmed by a number of empirical studies, although there are also suggestions on the need to adjust this economic and theoretical development. The corresponding discussion also affects the policy of the Bank of Russia (mega-regulator), which carries out inflation targeting in conditions of the free movement of cross-border capital and the use of a floating ruble exchange rate. Regarding the effectiveness of this policy, carried out in the presence of increased sensitivity of the Russian economy to external shocks, the authors express certain doubts.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-216
Author(s):  
Cheoljun Eom ◽  
◽  
Uk Chang ◽  
Jong Won Park

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-594
Author(s):  
Simon Deakin ◽  
Gaofeng Meng

Abstract We consider the implications of the Covid-19 crisis for the theory and practice of governance. We define ‘governance’ as the process through which, in the case of a given entity or polity, resources are allocated, decisions made and policies implemented, with a view to ensuring the effectiveness of its operations in the face of risks in its environment. Core to this, we argue, is the organisation of knowledge through public institutions, including the legal system. Covid-19 poses a particular type of ‘Anthropogenic’ risk, which arises when organised human activity triggers feedback effects from the natural environment. As such it requires the concerted mobilisation of knowledge and a directed response from governments and international agencies. In this context, neoliberal theories and practices, which emphasise the self-adjusting properties of systems of governance in response to external shocks, are going to be put to the test. In states’ varied responses to Covid-19 to date, it is already possible to observe some trends. One of them is the widespread mischaracterisation of the measures taken to address the epidemic at the point of its emergence in the Chinese city of Wuhan in January and February 2020. Public health measures of this kind, rather than constituting a ‘state of exception’ in which legality is set aside, are informed by practices which originated in the welfare or social states of industrialised countries, and which were successful in achieving a ‘mortality revolution’ in the course of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Relearning this history would seem to be essential for the future control of pandemics and other Anthropogenic risks.


Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (13) ◽  
pp. 1592
Author(s):  
Jonguk Kim ◽  
Hyansu Bae ◽  
Hyunwoo Kang ◽  
Suk Gyu Lee

This paper suggests an algorithm for extracting the location of a building from satellite imagery and using that information to modify the roof content. The materials are determined by measuring the conditions where the building is located and detecting the position of a building in broad satellite images. Depending on the incomplete roof or material, there is a greater possibility of great damage caused by disaster situations or external shocks. To address these problems, we propose an algorithm to detect roofs and classify materials in satellite images. Satellite imaging locates areas where buildings are likely to exist based on roads. Using images of the detected buildings, we classify the material of the roof using a proposed convolutional neural network (CNN) model algorithm consisting of 43 layers. In this paper, we propose a CNN structure to detect areas with buildings in large images and classify roof materials in the detected areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-115
Author(s):  
Mala Raghavan ◽  
Evelyn S. Devadason

This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.


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