Two Years after the Crisis: Do Risks of the Second Wave Become Stronger?

2011 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
World Economy ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Second Wave

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS ON THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 146-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Tiunova
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Foreign Markets ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World

The article is devoted to the study of the degree of sensitivity of the Russian economy to exogenous shocks from the external environment. Indicators of the dynamics of foreign markets are changes in the global market of raw materials, financial markets of developed countries, and the propensity of foreign investors to risk. The topic of our study is relevant against the background of the current key risks for the world economy and financial system: uncertainty of the global energy market prospects due to the growth of oil production in the united States; normalization of monetary policy by developed countries, which in the future can provoke capital outflow from emerging markets; the threat of global protectionism. The article describes the potential consequences of these events for the world economy and financial system. The study uses statistical data on the real and financial sectors of the Russian economy, as well as foreign markets for the period 2002–2018. The parameters of external market conditions are world trade conditions, the volatility of the global stock and currency markets, the level of business activity in the Eurozone region, and the degree of risk and uncertainty in emerging markets. The research methodology is based on Bayesian structural vector autoregressions. The graphs of the impulse response function allow us to determine the direction of the key parameters of the Russian economy (industry, inflation, exchange rate, and sovereign risk premium) in response to changes in external environment. The contribution of external shocks to the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is determined on the basis of the decomposition of the error variance of the model endogenous variables forecast. Our analysis confirmed the significant dependence between the dynamics of the key indicators of the Russian economy and the external markets. The author concludes that the inflation targeting regime and the policy of budget rules have a positive impact on the protection of the Russian economy from global risks.

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

scholarly journals Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriy V. Mironov ◽  
Liudmila D. Konovalova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Preliminary Version ◽  
The One ◽  
Relationship Of

The article considers the problem of the relationship of structural changes and economic growth in the global economy and Russia in the framework of different methodological approaches. At the same time, the paper provides the analysis of complementarity of economic policy types, which, on the one hand, are aimed at developing the fundamentals of GDP growth (institutions, human capital and macroeconomic stabilization), and on the other hand, at initiating growth (with stable fundamentals) with the help of structural policy measures. In the study of structural changes in the global economy, new forms of policies of this kind have been revealed, in particular aimed at identifying sectors — drivers of economic growth based on a portfolio approach. In a given paper a preliminary version of the model of the Russian economy is provided, using a multisector version of the Thirlwall’s Law. Besides, the authors highlight a number of target parameters of indicators of competitiveness of the sectors of the Russian economy that allow us to expect its growth rate to accelerate above the exogenously given growth rate of the world economy.

scholarly journals Dynamics of russian citizens’ social fears during the first and second waves of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Victor V. Ermolaev ◽  
Julia Voroncova ◽  
Daria K. Nasonova ◽  
Alena I. Chetverikova
Keyword(s):  
Social Deprivation ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Media ◽  
Second Wave

Background. The study of the psychological characteristics of social fears during the first wave of COVID-19 indicated that Russian citizens were massively in a state of fear. The persisting threat of a pandemic throughout the year, the inconsistency of managerial decisions in the absence of a coherent strategy to combat COVID-19, obviously create growing social tension in Russia, which is projected onto the psychological level of the state of modern society. Objective. To identify the dynamics of social fears among Russian citizens during the first and second waves of COVID-19. Hypothesis: there is a tendency for the growth of social fears among Russian citizens during the second wave of COVID-19, while the media continues to form a depressive and depressing “picture of the world”. Design. Psychodiagnostics was carried out remotely using Google forms. Sample size: 497 people. At the first stage (the first wave — March / April, 2020), 253 people were tested. At the second stage (second wave — October / November, 2020), 244 people passed testing, of which 150 took part in the periods of both the first and second waves, and 94 — only during the second wave. At the third stage, statistical analysis was carried out in order to identify the dynamics of social fears. Results. From the moment COVID-19 began to the peak of the second wave, Russian citizens showed negative dynamics, characterized by: 1) an increase in the experience of social fears associated with failure and defeat, as well as rejection and suppression; 2) an increase in the imbalance of trust caused by the growth of trust in the world and others, as trustworthy sources of information about the current danger, against the background of a steadily reduced trust in oneself; 3) a decrease in optimism and faith in the future with an increase in the intensity of emotional stress, as well as a desire to delegate responsibility for the events of one’s own life; 4) a general decrease in efficiency (based on the results of self-report). Conclusion. The information broadcast by the media about COVID-19 has a systemic psychological impact through the demonstration of a pessimistic “picture of the world”, which, creating an aggressive information field literally enveloping the psyche, destroys its self-confidence, social ties and group cohesion, and also fills it social fears, increasing the sense of social deprivation. The intended consequences will send the psychological community to develop a predictive model for overcoming this situation. In our opinion, the main thing in the work with the consequences of the pandemic is psychological assistance, the basis of which should be the methods of correction of the cognitive-affective sphere of the individual — the return of self-confidence and the transformation of the “picture of the world” of the present and future into a positive one. Particular attention should be paid to increasing collective cohesion and setting group goals that outline the future positive “picture of the world” of Russian society

Nanotechnology and Microelectronics

2010 ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ndubuisi Ekekwe
Keyword(s):  
Technology Diffusion ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
National Competitiveness ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Technology Capability ◽  
Gross World Product ◽  
Over Time

For many centuries, the gross world product was flat. But as technology penetrated many economies, over time, the world economy has expanded. Technology will continue to shape the future of commerce, industry and culture with likes of nanotechnology and microelectronics directly or indirectly playing major roles in redesigning the global economic structures. These technologies will drive other industries and will be central to a new international economy where technology capability will determine national competitiveness. Technology-intensive firms will emerge and new innovations will evolve a new dawn in wealth creation. Nations that create or adopt and then diffuse these technologies will profit. Those that fail to use technology as a means to compete internationally will find it difficult to progress economically. This chapter provides insights on global technology diffusion, the drivers and impacts with specific focus on nanotechnology and microelectronics. It also discusses the science of these technologies along with the trends, realities and possibilities, and the barriers which must be overcome for higher global penetration rates.

4. The enemy within

2014 ◽  
pp. 64-87
Author(s):  
Bill McGuire
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Canary Islands ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Industrial Cities ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Earthquake Zone ◽  
Eruption Magnitude

‘The Enemy Within’ begins with volcanic super-eruptions and their devastating consequences such as the 1815 eruption of volcano Tambora in Indonesia, and ancient eruptions in Yellowstone, USA, and Toba, northern Sumatra. Volcanic explositivity index, eruption magnitude, and eruption intensity are explained. Volcanic landslides in Hawaii and the Canary Islands will, in the future, result in giant tsunamis wreaking havoc around the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean rims. But when will they happen? Finally, the fate of industrial cities, such as Tokyo, located near active fault-lines and in earthquake zone, and the resultant effects on the world economy are considered.

scholarly journals Industrial Internet in the concept “Industry 4.0”: world experience and perspectives of development in the conditions of Russian economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00010
Author(s):  
Julia Asaturova ◽  
Anna Mikhailova
Keyword(s):  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Industrial Internet ◽  
The World ◽  
Qualitative Level ◽  
Basic Features ◽  
State Programs

At present, the world economy is at the stage of formation of the fourth industrial revolution, which is called to raise the industry to a new qualitative level. In this article we contemplated the history and prerequisites of the industrial revolution, defined its basic features and the most progressive technologies. We analyzed the particular features of development of the industrial revolution in Russia and abroad. We inspected the experience of foreign countries in implementing state programs in the sphere “Industry 4.0”. We investigated the concept of the Industrial Internet as a basis for developing of a new wave of the industrial revolution. We studied its main advantages, its influence on the world economy and the anticipated consequences. We investigated the factors hindering the implementation of the project related to the Industrial Internet in Russia. We formulated the primary tasks and evaluated the perspectives for development of the industrial Internet in the Russian economy.

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