scholarly journals Footprints of Climate Change, Global Warming, Government Economic Policies on Crops Production: Adaptation Strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 797-809
Author(s):  
Imran Sharif Chaudhry ◽  
Abdul Rehman Aslam ◽  
Fatima Farooq
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Test Technique ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Climate change has become one of the most imperative snags of this century. Climate change is a grave global threat, and Pakistan has been ranked eighth on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change by the German watch Global Climate Risk Index. The increasing amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), the foremost contributor to global warming, seems to provoke this problem. Agriculture-based economies have always been dependent on the vagaries of nature and climate. This study in your hand underscores climate change, global warming and government economic policies footprint on four major crop production (Wheat, Rice, Sugarcane, and Cotton) in Pakistan with the help of time-series data acquired from 1977 to 2016. The ARDL bounds espouse test technique relied on ADF test results. The study concluded that climate change and government economic policies have a positive influence on crops produced in the long as well as short-run except global warming and input index, which have a negative influence in the short run. Policymakers and researchers must drive attention to adopt advanced cultivation processes through farming practice through international research institutions' assistance.

scholarly journals An assessment of the interrelations between country risk, economic growth and good governance: The case of the Visegrád four

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 610-627
Author(s):  
Daniel Francois Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Run

nvestors assess the environment and the level of risk before they invest in a specific region or country. Several country risk indexes have been developed since the beginning of the 1990s, using risk factors such as politics, the economy and sovereign risk factors. This study aims to determine the relationships between the country risk index, economic performance and good governance. The study implemented a quantitative research methodology with panel data, focusing on the four Visegrad countries, using time-series data from 1996 to 2019. The results indicate both long- and short-run relationships. Both GDP and good governance significantly impact the country risk index with coefficients of between 0.17 to 0.31 and 0.02 to 0.15 according to different estimation models. The Granger causality results indicated that both GDP and good governance cause changes in the country risk indexes of the countries, and good governance causes increased economic performance. In conclusion, the study showed clear evidence that a lower country risk index is important to attract investment and sustained economic growth and good governance is critical in this process.          

scholarly journals Impact of Macro-Economic Variable on Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faisal Hassan ◽  
Hashim Bin Jusoh ◽  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Fahad Ali Khan ◽  
Muhammad Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The researcher investigates the Impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on Pakistan stock Exchange performance KSE-100 index by using monthly time series data which covers the period of 2013 to 2020. The econometrics techniques which are employed includes ADF test, Ordinary Least squares regression Model, testing for Multi-collinearity, Residual analysis serial correlation, testing for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM), variance decomposition (VAR) and Pair wise granger causality test. The results indicate that there is positive impact of exchange rate on PSX 100 index and the impact of inflation and interest rate is fond negative but inflation have insignificant relationship with PSX 100 index and the other two relationships are found significant. From the ECM result it is found that in short run 20% of the variation in dependent variable is due to inflation, exchange rate and interest rate and 80% variation is unexplained in short run. Form the results of VAR test it is concluded that exchange rate 1.67, inflation 14.25%, and interest rate 3.90% variation cause in PSX 100 index performance due to these three independent variables.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

scholarly journals Infrastructural Investments and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ayub ◽  
Rabia Rasheed ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Furrukh Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Projects ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Purpose: The goal of this study is to make an attempt to find out the relationships between infrastructural investments and economic growth. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs time series data over the years from 1972 to 2020. To observe the long-run and short-run impact of infrastructural investments on economic growth, an ARDL modeling approach to co- integration is used that is most suitable technique over some other techniques of integration after inspecting the stationary level of data via ADF test. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that Investments on Railways, Roads, Gas Projects, Telecommunication, Water Projects and Power Projects appear as efficient factors for enhancing economic growth of Pakistan in the long run. Implications/Originality/Value: It is suggested that government should increase the public and private investment for development of Railways, Roads, Telecommunication and Water projects in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Climate Variability and Livestock Production in Nigeria: Lessons for Sustainable Livestock Production

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 30-37
Author(s):  
Grace Zibah Rekwot ◽  
Anosike Francis Ugo ◽  
Oke-Egbodo Brenda Engo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Smart Agriculture ◽  
Adf Test

Abstract The study examined the relationship between climate variability and livestock production and the lessons that can be drawn for achieving sustainable livestock production in Nigeria. The study employed time series data on annual rainfall and livestock production given by index of the aggregate livestock production over the period of 1970 to 2008. The data were obtained from various publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The data were analyzed through the instrumentality of econometric tools such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Vector auto regression (VAR) lag order selection test and Pairwise granger causality. The results of the data analysis revealed the existence of unidirectional causality from climate variability to livestock production in Nigeria and this implies that climate variability has been significant in influencing livestock production over the period under study. Based on the foregoing, it is recommended as a matter of urgency that government should continually sensitize farmers on the challenges of climate change and feasible adaptation measures that they can adhere to in order to avert the detrimental effects of climate change on sustainable livestock production. In other words, implementation of the policy thrust on climate smart agriculture should be pursued vigorously.

scholarly journals Investment, Poverty and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Modeling Approach to Co-Integration

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Imran Sharif
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

This study analyzes the nexus of investment, poverty and growth in Pakistan. It will develop comprehensive macro economic model of Pakistan economy with the desire of amplification and provided that a long-term result for the determined investment-poverty-growth discrepancy veterans. The significant level of investment and sustained economic growth may be the major driving forces for poverty decrease in Pakistan. The level of investment also assists the poor through a direct allocation influence as well as tortuous growth effect, in both the long run and short run. To detect the long term and short term effects of economic development, poverty and investment, an ARDL modeling approach to co- integration is functional, which is the suitable technique  in excess of method of integration after examining the stationary level of the data through ADF Test. The bound testing approach is exploited for cointegration to analyze the presence of long term association amid variables and ECM models are verbalized for short term analysis. The model is predictable with time-series data from 1972 to 2013 confine mutually the long-run and short-run forceful goods of the economy. The model is subjected to a sequence of strategy situation  that assesses a mixture of options for government to recover the prolific ability of the economy, thus attain continued hasten growth and a decrease in  Pakistan`s poverty. JEL Classification Codes: G12, G 14

scholarly journals Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 240-250
Author(s):  
Md. Sharif Hossain ◽  
Md. Thasinul Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Value Addition ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

This paper investigates the impacts of money supply, government expenditure, velocity, industry value addition and economic growth on inflation of Bangladesh using time series data from 1978-2014. The ADF test results suggest that the variables are of I(1). It is found that there exist five co-integration equations. The outcome of the Granger Causality test suggests the short-run unidirectional causality running from industrial value addition to money supply, from inflation, money supply, velocity, industrial value addition and economic growth to government spending. Bidirectional causality has been found between economic growth and industrial value addition. Finally, short-run and long-run effects of money supply, government spending, velocity, industry value addition and economic growth on inflation are estimated. It is found that the speed of adjustment for short-run to approach to the long-run equilibrium level is significant at any significance level. It has been found that it will take about 1.25 years for a complete convergence process to approach its equilibrium. Therefore, in case of any shock to the inflation equation, the speed of adjustment is significantly faster. It has also been found that the long-run effects of money supply and velocity have positive significant effects while the economic growth has significant negative effect on inflation in Bangladesh economy. It has been found that the long-run effects of money supply and velocity are more than short-run effects meaning that over the time more money supply and velocity increase the more and more inflation in Bangladesh but economic growth decreases the inflation.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-78
Author(s):  
Niranjan Devkota ◽  
◽  
Nirash Paija ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Rice Varieties ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rice Yields

This study assesses the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between paddy yields and climate variables, particularly maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, using time-series data from 1971 to 2014 in Nepal. Applying Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Regression or ARDL bounds testing approach for analysis of co-integration between the variables, we confirm that there is a long-run relationship among the variables. Furthermore, we employ Granger non-causality tests for robustness. The findings reveal that rainfall has substantial effects on the rice yield. Specifically, a positive and significant relationship exists between rice yields and rainfall and that this relationship is unidirectional. Rainfall impacts on rice yield and holding all things constant, a 1 mm increase in rainfall increases rice yields by 0.65 percent. Given the effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, agricultural scientists should focus on research and development of temperature tolerant rice varieties in the production of rice yields.

scholarly journals MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangarirai Roy Shoko ◽  
Abenet Belete ◽  
Petronella Chaminuka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Distributed Lag

Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longer-term decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general effects of climate change on agriculture are broadly understood, there are limited studies that model the relationship between specific crops and climate variables. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the sensitivity of maize yield to climate variables, fertilizer use and other non-climate variables. This paper uses annual time-series data of 47 observations spanning from 1970 to 2016. The results reveal that rainfall and temperature are important maize yield drivers in South Africa. However, if excessive, they will produce negative effects. The findings of this analysis are relevant for designing long-term interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize production.

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