Deep Learning for seasonality modelling in Inflation-Indexed Swap pricing

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 54-69
Author(s):  
Pier Giuseppe Giribone ◽  
◽  
Duccio Martelli ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Real Market ◽  
Finance Theory

An Inflation-Indexed Swap (IIS) is a derivative in which, at every payment date, the counterparties swap an inflation rate with a fixed rate. For the calculation of the Inflation Leg cash flows it is necessary to build a mathematical model suitable for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) projection. For this purpose, quants typically start by using market quotes for the Zero-Coupon swaps in order to derive the future trend of the inflation index, together with a seasonality model for capturing the typical periodical effects. In this study, we propose a forecasting model for inflation seasonality based on a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network: a deep learning methodology particularly useful for forecasting purposes. The CPI predictions are conducted using a FinTech paradigm, but in respect of the traditional quantitative finance theory developed in this research field. The paper is structured according to the following sections: the first two parts illustrate the pricing methodologies for the most popular IIS: the Zero Coupon Inflation-Indexed Swap (ZCIIS) and the Year-on-Year Inflation-Indexed Swap (YYIIS); section 3 deals with the traditional standard method for the forecast of CPI values (trend + seasonality), while section 4 describes the LSTM architecture, and section 5 focuses on CPI projections, also called inflation bootstrap. Then section 6 describes a robust check, implementing a traditional SARIMA model in order to improve the interpretation of the LSTM outputs; finally, section 7 concludes with a real market case, where the two methodologies are used for computing the fair-value for a YYIIS and the model risk is quantified.

scholarly journals Argument annotation and analysis using deep learning with attention mechanism in Bahasa Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Derwin Suhartono ◽  
Aryo Pradipta Gema ◽  
Suhendro Winton ◽  
Theodorus David ◽  
Mohamad Ivan Fanany ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mother Tongue ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Attention Mechanism ◽  
Argument Analysis ◽  
Argumentation Mining ◽  
Persuasive Essays ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit ◽  
Bahasa Indonesia

Abstract Argumentation mining is a research field which focuses on sentences in type of argumentation. Argumentative sentences are often used in daily communication and have important role in each decision or conclusion making process. The research objective is to do observation in deep learning utilization combined with attention mechanism for argument annotation and analysis. Argument annotation is argument component classification from certain discourse to several classes. Classes include major claim, claim, premise and non-argumentative. Argument analysis points to argumentation characteristics and validity which are arranged into one topic. One of the analysis is about how to assess whether an established argument is categorized as sufficient or not. Dataset used for argument annotation and analysis is 402 persuasive essays. This data is translated into Bahasa Indonesia (mother tongue of Indonesia) to give overview about how it works with specific language other than English. Several deep learning models such as CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) are utilized for argument annotation and analysis while HAN (Hierarchical Attention Network) is utilized only for argument analysis. Attention mechanism is combined with the model as weighted access setter for a better performance. From the whole experiments, combination of deep learning and attention mechanism for argument annotation and analysis arrives in a better result compared with previous research.

A Deep Learning based Arabic Script Recognition System: Benchmark on KHAT

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riaz Ahmad ◽  
Saeeda Naz ◽  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Sheikh Rashid ◽  
Marcus Liwicki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Character Recognition ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Recognition System ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Arabic Text ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Processing Step ◽  
Handwritten Arabic

This paper presents a deep learning benchmark on a complex dataset known as KFUPM Handwritten Arabic TexT (KHATT). The KHATT data-set consists of complex patterns of handwritten Arabic text-lines. This paper contributes mainly in three aspects i.e., (1) pre-processing, (2) deep learning based approach, and (3) data-augmentation. The pre-processing step includes pruning of white extra spaces plus de-skewing the skewed text-lines. We deploy a deep learning approach based on Multi-Dimensional Long Short-Term Memory (MDLSTM) networks and Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC). The MDLSTM has the advantage of scanning the Arabic text-lines in all directions (horizontal and vertical) to cover dots, diacritics, strokes and fine inflammation. The data-augmentation with a deep learning approach proves to achieve better and promising improvement in results by gaining 80.02% Character Recognition (CR) over 75.08% as baseline.

Human Activity Recognition using Fourier Transform Inspired Deep Learning Combination Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-31
Author(s):  
Kyungkoo Jun
Keyword(s):  
Fourier Transform ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Window Size ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Testing Data ◽  
Labeling Scheme

Background & Objective: This paper proposes a Fourier transform inspired method to classify human activities from time series sensor data. Methods: Our method begins by decomposing 1D input signal into 2D patterns, which is motivated by the Fourier conversion. The decomposition is helped by Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) which captures the temporal dependency from the signal and then produces encoded sequences. The sequences, once arranged into the 2D array, can represent the fingerprints of the signals. The benefit of such transformation is that we can exploit the recent advances of the deep learning models for the image classification such as Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Results: The proposed model, as a result, is the combination of LSTM and CNN. We evaluate the model over two data sets. For the first data set, which is more standardized than the other, our model outperforms previous works or at least equal. In the case of the second data set, we devise the schemes to generate training and testing data by changing the parameters of the window size, the sliding size, and the labeling scheme. Conclusion: The evaluation results show that the accuracy is over 95% for some cases. We also analyze the effect of the parameters on the performance.

Improving Sentiment Analysis using Hybrid Deep Learning Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avinash Chandra Pandey ◽  
Dharmveer Singh Rajpoot
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Extraction Process ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Sentiment Classification ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Background: Sentiment analysis is a contextual mining of text which determines viewpoint of users with respect to some sentimental topics commonly present at social networking websites. Twitter is one of the social sites where people express their opinion about any topic in the form of tweets. These tweets can be examined using various sentiment classification methods to find the opinion of users. Traditional sentiment analysis methods use manually extracted features for opinion classification. The manual feature extraction process is a complicated task since it requires predefined sentiment lexicons. On the other hand, deep learning methods automatically extract relevant features from data hence; they provide better performance and richer representation competency than the traditional methods. Objective: The main aim of this paper is to enhance the sentiment classification accuracy and to reduce the computational cost. Method: To achieve the objective, a hybrid deep learning model, based on convolution neural network and bi-directional long-short term memory neural network has been introduced. Results: The proposed sentiment classification method achieves the highest accuracy for the most of the datasets. Further, from the statistical analysis efficacy of the proposed method has been validated. Conclusion: Sentiment classification accuracy can be improved by creating veracious hybrid models. Moreover, performance can also be enhanced by tuning the hyper parameters of deep leaning models.

scholarly journals A Novel Load Forecasting Approach Based on Smart Meter Data Using Advance Preprocessing and Hybrid Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2742
Author(s):  
Fatih Ünal ◽  
Abdulaziz Almalaq ◽  
Sami Ekici
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Planning And Scheduling ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting models play a critical role in distribution companies in making effective decisions in their planning and scheduling for production and load balancing. Unlike aggregated load forecasting at the distribution level or substations, forecasting load profiles of many end-users at the customer-level, thanks to smart meters, is a complicated problem due to the high variability and uncertainty of load consumptions as well as customer privacy issues. In terms of customers’ short-term load forecasting, these models include a high level of nonlinearity between input data and output predictions, demanding more robustness, higher prediction accuracy, and generalizability. In this paper, we develop an advanced preprocessing technique coupled with a hybrid sequential learning-based energy forecasting model that employs a convolution neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) within a unified framework for accurate energy consumption prediction. The energy consumption outliers and feature clustering are extracted at the advanced preprocessing stage. The novel hybrid deep learning approach based on data features coding and decoding is implemented in the prediction stage. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real-world datasets in Turkey, and the results outperformed the traditional prediction models compared in this paper.

scholarly journals Application of Rough and Fuzzy Set Theory for Prediction of Stochastic Wind Speed Data Using Long Short-Term Memory

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 924
Author(s):  
Moslem Imani ◽  
Hoda Fakour ◽  
Wen-Hau Lan ◽  
Huan-Chin Kao ◽  
Chi Ming Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Rough Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Despite the great significance of precisely forecasting the wind speed for development of the new and clean energy technology and stable grid operators, the stochasticity of wind speed makes the prediction a complex and challenging task. For improving the security and economic performance of power grids, accurate short-term wind power forecasting is crucial. In this paper, a deep learning model (Long Short-term Memory (LSTM)) has been proposed for wind speed prediction. Knowing that wind speed time series is nonlinear stochastic, the mutual information (MI) approach was used to find the best subset from the data by maximizing the joint MI between subset and target output. To enhance the accuracy and reduce input characteristics and data uncertainties, rough set and interval type-2 fuzzy set theory are combined in the proposed deep learning model. Wind speed data from an international airport station in the southern coast of Iran Bandar-Abbas City was used as the original input dataset for the optimized deep learning model. Based on the statistical results, the rough set LSTM (RST-LSTM) model showed better prediction accuracy than fuzzy and original LSTM, as well as traditional neural networks, with the lowest error for training and testing datasets in different time horizons. The suggested model can support the optimization of the control approach and the smooth procedure of power system. The results confirm the superior capabilities of deep learning techniques for wind speed forecasting, which could also inspire new applications in meteorology assessment.

scholarly journals Schätzung der Verdunstung mithilfe von Machine- und Deep Learning-Methoden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Brenner ◽  
Jonathan Frame ◽  
Grey Nearing ◽  
Karsten Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Sich Eine ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Neuronales Netzwerk ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

ZusammenfassungDie Verdunstung ist ein entscheidender Prozess im globalen Wasser‑, Energie- sowie Kohlenstoffkreislauf. Daten zur räumlich-zeitlichen Dynamik der Verdunstung sind daher von großer Bedeutung für Klimamodellierungen, zur Abschätzung der Auswirkungen der Klimakrise sowie nicht zuletzt für die Landwirtschaft.In dieser Arbeit wenden wir zwei Machine- und Deep Learning-Methoden für die Vorhersage der Verdunstung mit täglicher und halbstündlicher Auflösung für Standorte des FLUXNET-Datensatzes an. Das Long Short-Term Memory Netzwerk ist ein rekurrentes neuronales Netzwerk, welchen explizit Speichereffekte berücksichtigt und Zeitreihen der Eingangsgrößen analysiert (entsprechend physikalisch-basierten Wasserbilanzmodellen). Dem gegenüber gestellt werden Modellierungen mit XGBoost, einer Entscheidungsbaum-Methode, die in diesem Fall nur Informationen für den zu bestimmenden Zeitschritt erhält (entsprechend physikalisch-basierten Energiebilanzmodellen). Durch diesen Vergleich der beiden Modellansätze soll untersucht werden, inwieweit sich durch die Berücksichtigung von Speichereffekten Vorteile für die Modellierung ergeben.Die Analysen zeigen, dass beide Modellansätze gute Ergebnisse erzielen und im Vergleich zu einem ausgewerteten Referenzdatensatz eine höhere Modellgüte aufweisen. Vergleicht man beide Modelle, weist das LSTM im Mittel über alle 153 untersuchten Standorte eine bessere Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtungen auf. Allerdings zeigt sich eine Abhängigkeit der Güte der Verdunstungsvorhersage von der Vegetationsklasse des Standorts; vor allem wärmere, trockene Standorte mit kurzer Vegetation werden durch das LSTM besser repräsentiert, wohingegen beispielsweise in Feuchtgebieten XGBoost eine bessere Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtung liefert. Die Relevanz von Speichereffekten scheint daher zwischen Ökosystemen und Standorten zu variieren.Die präsentierten Ergebnisse unterstreichen das Potenzial von Methoden der künstlichen Intelligenz für die Beschreibung der Verdunstung.

scholarly journals A Single-Terminal Fault Location Method for HVDC Transmission Lines Based on a Hybrid Deep Network

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 255
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Yigang He ◽  
Lie Li
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Fault Location ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Energy Operator ◽  
Sampling Frequency ◽  
Learning Technology ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Hvdc Transmission

High voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems play an increasingly important role in long-distance power transmission. Realizing accurate and timely fault location of transmission lines is extremely important for the safe operation of power systems. With the development of modern data acquisition and deep learning technology, deep learning methods have the feasibility of engineering application in fault location. The traditional single-terminal traveling wave method is used for fault location in HVDC systems. However, many challenges exist when a high impedance fault occurs including high sampling frequency dependence and difficulty to determine wave velocity and identify wave heads. In order to resolve these problems, this work proposed a deep hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network model for single-terminal fault location of an HVDC system containing mixed cables and overhead line segments. Simultaneously, a variational mode decomposition–Teager energy operator is used in feature engineering to improve the effect of model training. 2D-CNN was employed as a classifier to identify fault segments, and LSTM as a regressor integrated the fault segment information of the classifier to achieve precise fault location. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method has high accuracy of fault location, with the effects of fault types, noise, sampling frequency, and different HVDC topologies in consideration.

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