A Failure Probability Estimation Method of Nonlinear Bridge Structures using the Non-Gaussian Closure Method

Evaluation method of reliability parameter estimation needs to be improved effectively with the advance of science and technology. This paper develops a new method of parameter estimation, which is named E-Bayesian estimation method. In the case one hyper-parameter, the definition of E-Bayesian estimation of the failure probability is provided, moreover, the formulas of E-Bayesian estimation and hierarchical Bayesian estimation, and the property of E-Bayesian estimation of the failure probability are also provided. Finally, calculation on practical problems shows that the provided method is feasible and easy to perform.

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Structural Modal Multifurcation With Internal Resonance: Part 2—Stochastic Approach

Journal of Vibration and Acoustics ◽

10.1115/1.2930330 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 115 (2) ◽

pp. 193-201 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

R. A. Ibrahim ◽

B. H. Lee ◽

A. A. Afaneh

Keyword(s):

Monte Carlo Simulation ◽

Monte Carlo ◽

Axial Load ◽

Random Excitation ◽

Stochastic Bifurcation ◽

Density Level ◽

Analytical Treatment ◽

Asymmetric Mode ◽

Non Gaussian ◽

Gaussian Closure

Stochastic bifurcation in moments of a clamped-clamped beam response to a wide band random excitation is investigated analytically, numerically, and experimentally. The nonlinear response is represented by the first three normal modes. The response statistics are examined in the neighborhood of a critical static axial load where the normal mode frequencies are commensurable. The analytical treatment includes Gaussian and non-Gaussian closures. The Gaussian closure fails to predict bifurcation of asymmetric modes. Both non-Gaussian closure and numerical simulation yield bifurcation boundaries in terms of the axial load, excitation spectral density level, and damping ratios. The results of both methods are in good agreement only for symmetric response characteristics. In the neighborhood of the critical bifurcation parameter the Monte Carlo simulation yields strong nonstationary mean square response for the asymmetric mode which is not directly excited. Experimental and Monte Carlo simulation exhibit nonlinear features including a shift of the resonance peak in the response spectra as the excitation level increases. The observed shift is associated with a widening effect in the response bandwidth.

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Statistical estimation of container condensation in marine transportation between Far East Asia and Europe

Journal of Navigation ◽

10.1017/s0373463321000746 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-24

Author(s):

Ping Chi Yuen ◽

Kenji Sasa ◽

Hideo Kawahara ◽

Chen Chen

Keyword(s):

Statistical Estimation ◽

Far East ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Measured Data ◽

Probability Estimation ◽

Container Transportation ◽

Marine Transportation ◽

Weather Changes ◽

Sea Area ◽

Weather Change

Abstract Condensation inside marine containers occurs during voyages owing to weather changes. In this study, we define the condensation probability along one of the major routes for container ships between Asia and Europe. First, the inside and outside air conditions were measured on land in Japan, and a correlation analysis was conducted to derive their relationship. Second, onboard measurements were conducted for 20,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) ships to determine the variation in outside air conditions. Complicated patterns of weather change were observed with changes in latitude, sea area, and season. Third, condensation probability was estimated based on a multi-regression analysis with land and onboard measured data. The maximum condensation probability in westbound or eastbound voyages in winter was found to be approximately 50%. The condensation probability estimation method established in this study can contribute to the quantification of cargo damage risks for the planning of marine container transportation voyages.

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