scholarly journals A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (09) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophia Chen ◽  
Paola Ganum ◽  
Pau Rabanal

e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts. The toolkit draws upon empirical regularities on real sector and financial sector outcomes for 182 economies from 1980 to 2015. We show that credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance, in particular when credit growth is unusually high or low. However, the relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak. These results hold for different country groups, including advanced economies, emerging markets and low-income countries. Combining credit growth with other variables such as house prices and the output gap helps to understand real sector outcomes. But including the financial account balance does not make a difference.

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Audu Onyemocho ◽  
Agwa Moses ◽  
Aboh Kisani ◽  
Omole Namben Victoria ◽  
Anejo-Okopi Joseph

Objective: Rabies, one of the oldest and fatal infectious diseases known to human race, is transmitted by infected dogs. The global target of zero dog-mediated rabies human deaths has been set for 2030; however, the realization of this goal poses challenges in most low-income countries where rabies is endemic due to weak surveillance. Dogs have been increasingly deployed for domestic uses over the years, especially for security purposes. This study assessed the assessment of knowledge and practice of vaccination of dogs against rabies by dog owners. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional community-based study was employed to study 400 dog owners in Makurdi metropolis through multistage sampling techniques. Sighting of valid dog vaccination card was used as criteria for current vaccination. Bivariate analysis was carried out to establish the relationship between the respondent knowledge of rabies and dog vaccination with significant value set at P < 0.05. Results: The mean age of the respondents was 31 (Â ± 0.8) years, majority of them had tertiary and secondary education (40.0% and 39.0%, respectively), 26.0% were traders, and 50.0% were married. Overall, 73.0% of the respondents had good knowledge score, 61.0% had seen at least a rabid dog in their life time, and 74.0% have a history of dog vaccination, but evidence of up to date vaccination of dogs by owners was seen in only 18.0% of all the vaccination cards sighted. The relationship between the educational status of the respondents, their knowledge score, and their dog vaccination was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Knowledge of rabies among dog owners in Makurdi was good, but the practice of dog vaccination was poor. Educational status was a good predictor of practice. Awareness campaign on dog vaccination should be strengthened and adequate measures should be put in place at the veterinary hospitals in Makurdi for vaccination of dogs.


2020 ◽  
pp. 24-47
Author(s):  
Homi Kharas ◽  
Indermit Gill

Since the authors of this chapter coined the term in 2006, “the middle-income trap” has been the subject of scores of investigations. The evidence in support of its existence has been mixed, but their original proposition was that of the possibility of a trap, not its inevitability. In this chapter, they emphasize the absence of a functional theory of economic growth in middle-income economies. Solow–Swan models did well to explain growth in low-income countries, and Lucas–Romer models emphasizing endogenous technical change identified the main drivers of growth in advanced economies. Neither class of models has, however, satisfactorily explained successful transitions from one type of growth to the other. The authors suggest that Schumpeterian models proposed by Aghion, Howitt, and others that stress creative destruction and institutional change provide the analytical foundations for a better understanding of growth in middle-income economies. They present evidence that is consistent with the predictions of this approach, and discuss its policy implications.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 270-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Lule ◽  
A. M. Elliott ◽  
L. Smeeth ◽  
E. L. Webb

There is substantial evidence of an inverse association between birth weight and later blood pressure (BP) in populations from high-income countries, but whether this applies in low-income countries, where causes of low birth weight are different, is not certain. Objective: We conducted a review of the evidence on the relationship between birth weight and BP among African children and adolescents. Medline, EMBASE, Global Health and Web of Science databases were searched for publications to October 2016. Papers reporting the relationship between birth weight and BP among African children and adolescents were assessed. Bibliographies were searched for further relevant publications. Selected papers were summarized following the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, 16 papers from 13 studies conducted in nine African countries (Nigeria, Republic of Seychelles, Gambia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, South Africa, Algeria, Zimbabwe and Angola) were reviewed. Eight studies were cohorts, while five were cross-sectional. The relationship between birth weight and later BP varied with age of the participants. Studies in neonates showed a consistently positive association, while predominantly inverse associations were seen among children, and studies in adolescents were inconsistent. Based on the limited number of studies identified, the relationship between birth weight and later BP may vary with age in African children and adolescents. Not all studies adequately controlled for confounding, notably gender or age. Whether the inverse relationship between birth weight and BP in later life observed in Western settings is also seen in Africa remains unclear.


Policy Papers ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 (90) ◽  
Author(s):  

Provisional Agenda Friday, October 12, 2012 Introductory Session Global Economic and Financial Prospects and Policies (11:30 a.m. – 12:45 p.m.) Tokyo International Forum, Hall B5 Restricted Session Early Warning Exercise (2:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.) Imperial Hotel, Hikari Room Saturday, October 13, 2012 Restricted Breakfast Dialogue on Policy Challenges (8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.) Imperial Hotel, Hikari Room Plenary Session 1. Opening Remarks by the Chair (10:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.) Imperial Hotel, Fuji Room 2. Global Policy Agenda - Securing the recovery and anchoring the future. Issues facing the advanced economies, emerging markets, low-income countries, Arab countries in transition, and the role of the Fund - Strengthening IMF Governance. 2010 Quota and Governance reforms; Quota Formula Review 3. Approval of Press Communiqué Press Conference (1:30 p.m.) Tokyo International Forum, Hall D7 ********** An Informal Gathering of World Economic Leaders, bringing together IMFC members and selected private sector, civil society and academic leaders, will be held on Friday, October 12 from 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. in the Hikari Room at the Imperial Hotel.


2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 1250005 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARUN S. MALIK ◽  
STEPHEN C. SMITH

We put in perspective the papers in this special issue by characterizing different forms of adaptation to climate change and discussing the role of adaptation in a developing country context. We highlight adaptation decision-making under uncertainty, empirics of autonomous adaptation, and data and methodological challenges. We identify unresolved questions, emphasizing interactions between autonomous and planned adaptation, adaptation externalities, and the relationship between adaptation and conflict.


SAGE Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824401773609 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Wesley F. Peterson

The relationship between population growth and economic growth is controversial. This article draws on historical data to chart the links between population growth, growth in per capita output, and overall economic growth over the past 200 years. Low population growth in high-income countries is likely to create social and economic problems while high population growth in low-income countries may slow their development. International migration could help to adjust these imbalances but is opposed by many. Drawing on economic analyses of inequality, it appears that lower population growth and limited migration may contribute to increased national and global economic inequality.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey Culver Smith ◽  
Leandra Merz ◽  
Jesse B. Borden ◽  
Chris Gulick ◽  
Akhil Ravindra Kshirsagar ◽  
...  

Many OA journals require authors pay an article processing charge (APC), which researchers in the Global South often cite as an insurmountable financial barrier. This has led to speculation that there will be lower representation of these authors in OA journals charging APCs. We used “mirror journals” – APC-charging OA versions of paywalled (PW) titles with whom they share editorial boards and standards for acceptance – to investigate the relationship between APCs and the geographic diversity of authors. Most of the &gt;41,000 articles we reviewed were published in PW journals. Although lead authors were based in &gt;140 countries, ~45% were based in either the United States of America (USA) or China. After correcting for differences in sample size, we found no difference between OA and PW journals in the number of countries in which lead authors were based. After correcting for the dominance of China and the USA, we found that author diversity in OA journals was significantly lower than in PW journals. Most OA articles were written by authors in high-income countries; no articles in OA journals had first authors from low-income countries. Our results suggest APCs are a barrier to OA publication for scientists from the Global South.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 34-49
Author(s):  
João Imaginário ◽  
Maria João Guedes

The continuous increase in debt ratios raises concerns in economic institutions concerning fiscal sustainability and its effect on the world economy. The empirical evidence has shown that both developed and developing countries have become highly indebted and fiscal deficits are not sustainable (Afonso, 2005) As such, the quality of institutions has an important role in debt accumulation (Presbitero, 2008) and fiscal stance is closely related to government institution quality as well as political and social stability (Woo, 2003). However, little attention has been devoted to the relationship between governance quality and government debt. This study examines whether the quality of governance relates to government debt. Using a sample of 164 countries for the period between 2002 and 2015, our results show that governance quality is negatively and statistically related to government debt. For low income countries evidence was found that a better governance environment is associated with lower public debt levels for low income countries, but not for high-income countries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Harsch ◽  
Asadullah Jawid ◽  
Ebrahim Jawid ◽  
Luis Saboga-Nunes ◽  
Kristine Sørensen ◽  
...  

Background:Health literacy is a determinant of health and assessed globally to inform the development of health interventions. However, little is known about health literacy in countries with one of the poorest health indicators worldwide, such as Afghanistan. Studies worldwide demonstrate that women play a key role in developing health literacy. Hence, this study's purpose is to explore health literacy of women in Afghanistan and the associated factors.Methods:From May to June 2017, we randomly recruited 7–10 women per day at the hospital in Ghazni, a representative province of Afghanistan. Two trained female interviewers interviewed 322 women (15–61 years old) orally in Dari or Pashto on a voluntary basis and assessed their health literacy using the HLS-EU-Q16, associated socio-demographics, and health behavior.Results:Health literacy of women (among educated and illiterates) is low even compared to other Asian countries. Health literacy is linked to age and education. We found mixed evidence of the relationship between health literacy and contextual factors, help-seeking, and health-related behavior.Conclusion:This study provides novel data on health literacy and astonishing insights into its association with health behavior of women in Afghanistan, thus contributing to health status. The study calls for recognition of health literacy as a public health challenge be addressed in Afghanistan and other low-income countries affected by crises.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (150) ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Bazarbash ◽  
Kimberly Beaton

Can fintech credit fill the credit gap in the consumer and business segments? There are few cross-country studies that explore this question. Focusing on marketplace lending, an important part of fintech credit, we use data for 109 countries from 2015 to 2017 to study the relationship between fintech credit to businesses and consumers and various aspects of financial development. Marketplace lending to consumers grows in countries where financial depth declines highlighting the role of fintech credit in filling the credit gap by traditional lenders. This result is particularly strong in low-income countries. In the business segment, marketplace lending expands where financial efficiency declines. Our findings show that low-income countries take advantage of the fintech credit opportunity in the consumer segment but face important challenges in the business segment.


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