scholarly journals Inverse modeling of the Chernobyl source term using atmospheric concentration and deposition measurements

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 8805-8824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Evangeliou ◽  
Thomas Hamburger ◽  
Anne Cozic ◽  
Yves Balkanski ◽  
Andreas Stohl

Abstract. This paper describes the results of an inverse modeling study for the determination of the source term of the radionuclides 134Cs, 137Cs and 131I released after the Chernobyl accident. The accident occurred on 26 April 1986 in the Former Soviet Union and released about 1019 Bq of radioactive materials that were transported as far away as the USA and Japan. Thereafter, several attempts to assess the magnitude of the emissions were made that were based on the knowledge of the core inventory and the levels of the spent fuel. More recently, when modeling tools were further developed, inverse modeling techniques were applied to the Chernobyl case for source term quantification. However, because radioactivity is a sensitive topic for the public and attracts a lot of attention, high-quality measurements, which are essential for inverse modeling, were not made available except for a few sparse activity concentration measurements far from the source and far from the main direction of the radioactive fallout. For the first time, we apply Bayesian inversion of the Chernobyl source term using not only activity concentrations but also deposition measurements from the most recent public data set. These observations refer to a data rescue attempt that started more than 10 years ago, with a final goal to provide available measurements to anyone interested. In regards to our inverse modeling results, emissions of 134Cs were estimated to be 80 PBq or 30–50 % higher than what was previously published. From the released amount of 134Cs, about 70 PBq were deposited all over Europe. Similar to 134Cs, emissions of 137Cs were estimated as 86 PBq, on the same order as previously reported results. Finally, 131I emissions of 1365 PBq were found, which are about 10 % less than the prior total releases. The inversion pushes the injection heights of the three radionuclides to higher altitudes (up to about 3 km) than previously assumed (≈ 2.2 km) in order to better match both concentration and deposition observations over Europe. The results of the present inversion were confirmed using an independent Eulerian model, for which deposition patterns were also improved when using the estimated posterior releases. Although the independent model tends to underestimate deposition in countries that are not in the main direction of the plume, it reproduces country levels of deposition very efficiently. The results were also tested for robustness against different setups of the inversion through sensitivity runs. The source term data from this study are publicly available.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Evangeliou ◽  
Thomas Hamburger ◽  
Anne Cozic ◽  
Yves Balkanski ◽  
Andreas Stohl

Abstract. The present paper describes the results of an inverse modelling study for the determination of the source term of the radionuclides 134Cs, 137Cs and 131I released after the Chernobyl accident. The accident occurred on 26 April 1986 in the Former Soviet Union and released about 1019 Bq of radioactive materials that were transported as far away as the USA and Japan. Thereafter, several attempts to assess the real magnitude of the emissions were made that were based on the knowledge of the core inventory and the levels of the spent fuel. More recently, when modelling tools were further developed, inverse modelling techniques were applied to the Chernobyl case for source term quantification. However, because radioactivity is a sensitive topic for the public and attracts a lot of attention, high quality measurements, that are essential for inverse modelling, were not made available except for a few sparse activity concentration measurements far from the source and far from the main direction of the radioactive fallout. For the first time, we apply Bayesian inversion of the Chernobyl source term using not only activity concentrations, but also deposition measurements from the most recent public dataset. These observations refer to a data rescue attempt that started more than 10 years ago, with a final goal to give such kind of measurements into anyone interested. As regards to our inverse modelling results, emissions of 134Cs were estimated to be 80 PBq or 30–50 % higher than what was previously published. From the released amount of 134Cs, about 70 PBq were deposited all over Europe. Similar to 134Cs, emissions of 137Cs were estimated as 86 PBq, in the same order with previously reported results. Finally, 131I emissions of 1365 PBq were found, which are about 10 % less than the prior total releases. The inversion pushes the injection heights of the three radionuclides to higher altitudes (up to about 3 km) than previously assumed (≈ 2.2 km) in order to better match both concentration and deposition observations over Europe. The results were of the present inversion were confirmed using an independent Eulerial model, for which deposition patterns were also improved when using the estimated posterior releases. Although the independent model tends to underestimate deposition in countries that are not in the main direction of the plume, it reproduces country levels of deposition very efficiently. The results were also tested for robustness against different set-ups of the inversion through sensitivity runs. The source term data from this study are made publically available.


2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Egor Shitikov ◽  
Anna Vyazovaya ◽  
Maja Malakhova ◽  
Andrei Guliaev ◽  
Julia Bespyatykh ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTThe Central Asia outbreak (CAO) clade is a branch of theMycobacterium tuberculosisBeijing genotype that is associated with multidrug resistance, increased transmissibility, and epidemic spread in parts of the former Soviet Union. Furthermore, migration flows bring these strains far beyond their areas of origin. We aimed to find a specific molecular marker of the Beijing CAO clade and develop a simple and affordable method for its detection. Based on the bioinformatics analysis of the largeM. tuberculosiswhole-genome sequencing (WGS) data set (n = 1,398), we identified an IS6110insertion in theRv1359-Rv1360intergenic region as a specific molecular marker of the CAO clade. We further designed and optimized a multiplex PCR method to detect this insertion. The method was validatedin silicowith the recently published WGS data set from Central Asia (n = 277) and experimentally withM. tuberculosisisolates from European and Asian parts of Russia, the former Soviet Union, and East Asia (n = 319). The developed molecular assay may be recommended for rapid screening of retrospective collections and for prospective surveillance when comprehensive but expensive WGS is not available or practical. The assay may be especially useful in high multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) burden countries of the former Soviet Union and in countries with respective immigrant communities.


MRS Bulletin ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 6-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Stoll

The following article is based on a talk for Symposium X presented by Wolfgang Stoll, Chief Scientific Advisor and Consultant in Siemens, Germany, at the 1996 MRS Fall Meeting.Since 1941 when Glenn Seaborg first isolated plutonium in milligram quantities, the total amount converted through neutron capture in U-238 has increased worldwide to about 1,200 tons and continues to grow about 70 tons/year. What was fissioned in situ in operating nuclear power stations is roughly equivalent to 5 billion tons of black coal, while the fission energy contained in those 1,200 tons unloaded in spent fuel is equivalent to another 2 billion tons of coal. About 260 of these 1,200 tons are ready to release their energy in about 4 kg-portions each in microseconds which is equivalent to 10,000 tons of coal. Most people believe this release of energy poses a major threat of the worldwide arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The about 20-fold overkill stored in worldwide WMD is considered superfluous after the crumbling of the Soviet Union. Options are sought to dispose of this surplus in a safe, speedy, and controllable manner. While for highly enriched uranium (HEU) (the other nuclear weapons material) dilution into low-enriched uranium and utilization in current light water reactors (LWR) poses market adaptation problems only, and while the worldwide consensus on the elimination of chemical and biological WMD is still in an initial phase, the decision of both the United States (US) and the former Soviet Union (FSU) to remove most of the plutonium out of weapons looks as if it was a firm political decision.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Semyonov-Tal ◽  
Dina Maskileyson

The study focuses on sources for health gaps between Jewish immigrants and native-born Israelis. Unlike traditional immigrant societies where immigration is viewed as economically motivated, immigrants returning to Israel are viewed as the “returning diaspora”. Because immigrants in Israel are entitled to the same health benefits and medical services as native-born, we expect Israel to attract unhealthy immigrants in disproportionate numbers. The data for the analysis are obtained from the Israeli National Health Interview Survey (2013–2015). The data set provides detailed information on health status and illness, sociodemographic attributes and origin of immigrants. Three major origin groups of immigrants are distinguished: the former Soviet Union, Western Europeans or the Americans (mostly Ashkenazim), and Asians or North Africans (mostly Sephardim). Our findings lend support to the expectations that the health status of all immigrant groups is poorer than that of native-born Israelis. The nativity–illness gap is most pronounced in the case of male immigrants (from Europe or the Americas or South Africa or Australia) and for female immigrants (from countries in the Middle East or North Africa) and least pronounced in the case of immigrants arriving from the former Soviet Union for both gender groups. Decomposition of the gaps into components reveals that some portion of the illness gap can be attributed to nativity status, but the largest portion of the gap is attributed to demographic characteristics. Neither socioeconomic status nor health-related behavior accounts for a substantial portion of the nativity–illness gap for all subgroups of immigrants.


Urban Studies ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 004209802093613
Author(s):  
Tal Modai-Snir ◽  
Pnina O. Plaut

Residential mobility patterns of immigrant and majority groups are key in understanding immigrants’ spatial integration. This article explores the spatial integration dynamics of immigrants from the Former Soviet Union in Tel-Aviv, Israel, as reflected in changing residential mobility behaviour. Unlike previous research, the article investigates the simultaneous effect of the relocations of both immigrants and majority members, with treatment of ethnic and socioeconomic dimensions of residential sorting considered simultaneously. Using a unique data set that spans the period 1997–2008, the analysis reveals a dynamic interplay of both groups’ mobility patterns. Their joint effect decreased residential sorting across both neighbourhood dimensions over time. Despite the decreasing magnitude, residential sorting processes remained active by the end of the research period, delaying the spatial integration of immigrants.


Author(s):  
D. A. Sell ◽  
E. A. Howden ◽  
K. J. Allen ◽  
K. Marsden ◽  
B. R. Westphal ◽  
...  

United States Government funded national security nuclear non-proliferation projects have historically focused on power reactor spent fuel assemblies that contain weapons usable materials. More recently concern and emphasis have been focused on the spent fuel located at the many research reactor facilities spread throughout the Former Soviet Union. The need exists for a mobile system that can be deployed at these research reactors for the purpose of ensuring that the nuclear materials cannot be used for weapons development. On-site application of the Mobile Melt-Dilute (MMD) process offers an economical method for converting weapons usable Former Soviet Union high enriched uranium research reactor fuel to a safe and secure low enriched uranium ingot. The process will generate little waste and will be performed in a sealed canister that will contain all off-gas products generated during the melting process, eliminating the need for an off-gas treatment system. The process is modular, reusable, and readily portable to a desired reactor site or storage location. The storage canisters containing the melted ingot can be configured for compatibility with the fuel storage technologies currently available or returned to Russia for reprocessing under the Russian Research Reactor Fuel Return Program. The objective of the MMD Project is to develop the mobile melt and dilute technology in preparation for active deployment at Russian built and fueled research reactors. The project has just completed conceptual design and is beginning proof of principle experiments and integrated prototype design of the furnace and canister.


2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoav Lavee ◽  
Ludmila Krivosh

This research aims to identify factors associated with marital instability among Jewish and mixed (Jewish and non-Jewish) couples following immigration from the former Soviet Union. Based on the Strangeness Theory and the Model of Acculturation, we predicted that non-Jewish immigrants would be less well adjusted personally and socially to Israeli society than Jewish immigrants and that endogamous Jewish couples would have better interpersonal congruence than mixed couples in terms of personal and social adjustment. The sample included 92 Jewish couples and 92 ethnically-mixed couples, of which 82 couples (40 Jewish, 42 mixed) divorced or separated after immigration and 102 couples (52 Jewish, 50 ethnically mixed) remained married. Significant differences were found between Jewish and non-Jewish immigrants in personal adjustment, and between endogamous and ethnically-mixed couples in the congruence between spouses in their personal and social adjustment. Marital instability was best explained by interpersonal disparity in cultural identity and in adjustment to life in Israel. The findings expand the knowledge on marital outcomes of immigration, in general, and immigration of mixed marriages, in particular.


1997 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Strelau

This paper presents Pavlov's contribution to the development of biological-oriented personality theories. Taking a short description of Pavlov's typology of central nervous system (CNS) properties as a point of departure, it shows how, and to what extent, this typology influenced further research in the former Soviet Union as well as in the West. Of special significance for the development of biologically oriented personality dimensions was the conditioned reflex paradigm introduced by Pavlov for studying individual differences in dogs. This paradigm was used by Russian psychologists in research on types of nervous systems conducted in different animal species as well as for assessing temperament in children and adults. Also, personality psychologists in the West, such as Eysenck, Spence, and Gray, incorporated the CR paradigm into their theories. Among the basic properties of excitation and inhibition on which Pavlov's typology was based, strength of excitation and the basic indicator of this property, protective inhibition, gained the highest popularity in arousaloriented personality theories. Many studies have been conducted in which the Pavlovian constructs of CNS properties have been related to different personality dimensions. In current research the behavioral expressions of the Pavlovian constructs of strength of excitation, strength of inhibition, and mobility of nervous processes as measured by the Pavlovian Temperament Survey (PTS) have been related to over a dozen of personality dimensions, mostly referring to temperament.


2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (140) ◽  
pp. 407-422
Author(s):  
Julia Bernstein

Based on an ethnographical study the article presents the problems of Soviet migrants with capitalistic every day life. The reaction of the migrants and the role of their imagination of capitalism, which was formed by different sources in the former Soviet Union, is investigated.


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