scholarly journals The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone – Part 1: A comparison of satellite observations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Maycock ◽  
K. Matthes ◽  
S. Tegtmeier ◽  
R. Thiéblemont ◽  
L. Hood

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar ultraviolet irradiance on stratospheric ozone forms an important part of the climate response to solar variability. To realistically simulate the climate response to solar variability using climate models, a minimum requirement is that they should include a solar cycle ozone component that has a realistic amplitude and structure, and which varies with season. For climate models that do not include interactive ozone chemistry, this component must be derived from observations and/or chemistry–climate model simulations and included in an externally prescribed ozone database that also includes the effects of all major external forcings. Part 1 of this two part study presents the solar-ozone responses in a number of updated satellite datasets for the period 1984–2004, including the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 6.2 and version 7.0 data, and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) version 8.0 and version 8.6 data. A number of combined datasets, which have extended SAGE II using more recent satellite measurements, are also analysed for the period 1984–2011. It is shown that SAGE II derived solar-ozone signals are sensitive to the independent temperature measurements used to convert ozone number density to mixing ratio units. A change in these temperature measurements in the recent SAGE II v7.0 data leads to substantial differences in the mixing ratio solar-ozone response compared to the previous v6.2, particularly in the tropical upper stratosphere. We also show that alternate satellite ozone datasets have issues (e.g., sparse spatial and temporal sampling, low vertical resolution, and shortness of measurement record), and that the methods of accounting for instrument offsets and drifts in merged satellite datasets can have a substantial impact on the solar cycle signal in ozone. For example, the magnitude of the solar-ozone response varies by around a factor of two across different versions of the SBUV VN8.6 record, which appears to be due to the methods used to combine the separate SBUV timeseries. These factors make it difficult to extract more than an annual-mean solar-ozone response from the available satellite observations. It is therefore unlikely that satellite ozone measurements alone can be applied to estimate the necessary solar cycle ozone component of the prescribed ozone database for future coupled model intercomparison projects (e.g., CMIP6).

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
...  

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate model simulations to fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the solar-ozone response (SOR) during the 11 year solar cycle amongst different chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry. We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the WCRP/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with three ozone databases: the Bodeker Scientific database, the SPARC/AC&C database for CMIP5, and the SPARC/CCMI database for CMIP6. The results reveal substantial differences in the representation of the SOR between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. The peak amplitude of theSOR in the upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases from 5 % to 2 % between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. This difference is because the CMIP5 database was constructed from a regression model fit to satellite observations, whereas the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations, which use a spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset with relatively weak UV forcing. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database is therefore implicitly more similar to the SOR in the CCMI-1 models than to the CMIP5 ozone database, which shows a greater resemblance in amplitude and structure to the SOR in the Bodeker database. The latitudinal structure of the annual mean SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows strong gradients in the SOR across the midlatitudes owing to the paucity of observations at high latitudes. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and in the CCMI-1 models show a strong seasonal dependence, including large meridional gradients at mid to high latitudes during winter; such seasonal variations in the SOR are not included in the CMIP5 ozone database. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the impact of changes in the representation of the SOR and SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The experiments show that the smaller amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database compared to CMIP5 causes a decrease in the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response over the solar cycle of up to 0.6 K, or around 50 % of the total amplitude. The changes in the SOR explain most of the difference in the amplitude of the tropical stratospheric temperature response in the case with combined changes in SOR and SSI between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasise the importance of adequately representing the SOR in climate models to capture the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, CMIP6 models without chemistry are encouraged to use the CMIP6 ozone database to capture the climate impacts of solar variability.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 11323-11343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
...  

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate simulations to aid in capturing the atmospheric response to solar cycle variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the representation of the 11-year solar cycle ozone response (SOR) in chemistry–climate models (CCMs) and in pre-calculated ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry, with a special focus on comparing the recommended protocols for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with results from three ozone databases for climate models: the Bodeker Scientific ozone database, the SPARC/Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate (AC&C) ozone database for CMIP5 and the SPARC/CCMI ozone database for CMIP6. The peak amplitude of the annual mean SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases by more than a factor of 2, from around 5 to 2 %, between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. This substantial decrease can be traced to the CMIP5 ozone database being constructed from a regression model fit to satellite and ozonesonde measurements, while the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database therefore implicitly resembles the SOR in the CCMI-1 models. The structure in latitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows unrealistic sharp gradients in the SOR across the middle latitudes owing to the paucity of long-term ozone measurements in polar regions. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and the CCMI-1 models show a seasonal dependence with enhanced meridional gradients at mid- to high latitudes in the winter hemisphere. The CMIP5 ozone database does not account for seasonal variations in the SOR, which is unrealistic. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the atmospheric impacts of changes in the representation of the SOR and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The larger amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database compared to CMIP6 causes a likely overestimation of the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response between 11-year solar cycle minimum and maximum by up to 0.55 K, or around 80 % of the total amplitude. This effect is substantially larger than the change in temperature response due to differences in SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasize the importance of adequately representing the SOR in global models to capture the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, we recommend that CMIP6 models without chemistry use the CMIP6 ozone database and the CMIP6 SSI dataset to better capture the climate impacts of solar variability. The SOR coefficients from the CMIP6 ozone database are published with this paper.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (15) ◽  
pp. 10021-10043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Lon Hood

Abstract. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation over the 11-year solar cycle affect stratospheric ozone abundances. It is important to quantify the magnitude, structure, and seasonality of the associated solar-ozone response (SOR) to understand the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on climate. Part 1 of this two-part study uses multiple linear regression analysis to extract the SOR in a number of recently updated satellite ozone datasets covering different periods within the epoch 1970 to 2013. The annual mean SOR in the updated version 7.0 (v7.0) Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II number density dataset (1984–2004) is very consistent with that found in the previous v6.2. In contrast, we find a substantial decrease in the magnitude of the SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere in the SAGE II v7.0 mixing ratio dataset (∼ 1 %) compared to the v6.2 (∼ 4 %). This difference is shown to be largely attributable to the change in the independent stratospheric temperature dataset used to convert SAGE II ozone number densities to mixing ratios. Since these temperature records contain substantial uncertainties, we suggest that datasets based on SAGE II number densities are currently most reliable for evaluating the SOR. We further analyse three extended ozone datasets that combine SAGE II v7.0 number densities with more recent GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) or OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System) measurements. The extended SAGE–OSIRIS dataset (1984–2013) shows a smaller and less statistically significant SOR across much of the tropical upper stratosphere compared to the SAGE II data alone. In contrast, the two SAGE–GOMOS datasets (1984–2011) show SORs that are in closer agreement with the original SAGE II data and therefore appear to provide a more reliable estimate of the SOR. We also analyse the SOR in the recent Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (SBUVMOD) version 8.6 (VN8.6) (1970–2012) and SBUV Merged Cohesive VN8.6 (1978–2012) datasets and compare them to the previous SBUVMOD VN8.0 (1970–2009). Over their full lengths, the three records generally agree in terms of the broad magnitude and structure of the annual mean SOR. The main difference is that SBUVMOD VN8.6 shows a smaller and less significant SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere and therefore more closely resembles the SAGE II v7.0 mixing ratio data than does the SBUV Merged Cohesive VN8.6, which has a more continuous SOR of ∼ 2 % in this region. The sparse spatial and temporal sampling of limb satellite instruments prohibits the extraction of sub-annual variations in the SOR from SAGE-based datasets. However, the SBUVMOD VN8.6 dataset suggests substantial month-to-month variations in the SOR, particularly in the winter extratropics, which may be important for the proposed high-latitude dynamical response to the solar cycle. Overall, the results highlight substantial uncertainties in the magnitude and structure of the observed SOR from different satellite records. The implications of these uncertainties for understanding and modelling the effects of solar variability on climate should be explored.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewa Bednarz ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Luke Abraham ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield

<p>The emissions of most long-lived halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are now decreasing, owing to controls on their production introduced by Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, short-lived halogenated compounds can also have substantial impact on atmospheric chemistry, including stratospheric ozone, particularly if emitted near climatological uplift regions. It has recently become evident that emissions of some chlorinated very short-lived species (VSLSs), such as chloroform (CHCl<sub>3</sub>) and dichloromethane (CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub>), could be larger than previously believed and increasing, particularly in Asia. While these may exert a significant influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate, their impacts remain poorly characterised. </p><p> </p><p>We address this issue using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (CCM). While not only the first, to our knowledge, model study addressing this problem using a CCM, it is also the first such study employing a whole atmosphere model, thereby simulating the tropospheric Cl-VSLSs emissions and the resulting stratospheric impacts in a fully consistent manner. We use a newly developed Double-Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST) chemistry scheme, which includes emissions of all major chlorinated and brominated VSLSs alongside an extended treatment of long-lived ODSs.</p><p> </p><p>We examine the impacts of rising Cl-VSLSs emissions on atmospheric chlorine tracers and ozone, including their long-term trends. We pay particular attention to the role of ‘nudging’, as opposed to the free-running model set up, for the simulated Cl-VSLSs impacts, thereby demostrating the role of atmospheric dynamics in modulating the atmospheric responses to Cl-VSLSs. In addition, we employ novel estimates of Cl-VSLS emissions over the recent past and compare the results with the simulations that prescribe Cl-VSLSs using simple lower boundary conditions. This allows us to demonstrate the impact such choice has on the dominant location and seasonality of the Cl-VSLSs transport into the stratosphere.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 4651-4663 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Chiodo ◽  
L. M. Polvani

Abstract An accurate assessment of the role of solar variability is a key step toward a proper quantification of natural and anthropogenic climate change. To this end, climate models have been extensively used to quantify the solar contribution to climate variability. However, owing to the large computational cost, the bulk of modeling studies to date have been performed without interactive stratospheric photochemistry: the impact of this simplification on the modeled climate system response to solar forcing remains largely unknown. Here this impact is quantified by comparing the response of two model configurations, with and without interactive ozone chemistry. Using long integrations, robust surface temperature and precipitation responses to an idealized irradiance increase are obtained. Then, it is shown that the inclusion of interactive stratospheric chemistry significantly reduces the surface warming (by about one-third) and the accompanying precipitation response. This behavior is linked to photochemically induced stratospheric ozone changes, and their modulation of the surface solar radiation. The results herein suggest that neglecting stratospheric photochemistry leads to a sizable overestimate of the surface response to changes in solar irradiance. This has implications for simulations of the climate in the last millennium and geoengineering applications employing irradiance changes larger than those observed over the 11-yr sunspot cycle, where models often use simplified treatments of stratospheric ozone that are inconsistent with the imposed solar forcing.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 4911-4947
Author(s):  
B. Vogel ◽  
P. Konopka ◽  
J.-U. Grooß ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
B. Funke ◽  
...  

Abstract. Satellite observations show that the enormous solar proton events (SPEs) in October–November 2003 had significant effects on the composition of the stratosphere and mesosphere in the polar regions. After the October–November 2003 SPEs and in early 2004 significant enhancements of NOx(=NO+NO2) in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in the Northern Hemisphere were observed by several satellite instruments. Here we present global full chemistry calculations performed with the CLaMS model to study the impact of mesospheric NOx intrusions on Arctic polar ozone loss processes in the stratosphere. Several model simulations are preformed with different upper boundary conditions for NOx at 2000 K potential temperature (≈50 km altitude). In our study we focus on the impact of the non-local production of NOx which means the downward transport of enhanced NOx from the mesosphere in the stratosphere. The local production of NOx in the stratosphere is neglected. Our findings show that intrusions of mesospheric air into the stratosphere, transporting high burdens of NOx, affect the composition of the Arctic polar region down to about 400 K (≈17–18 km). We compare our simulated NOx and O3 mixing ratios with satellite observations by ACE-FTS and MIPAS processed at IMK/IAA and derive an upper limit for the ozone loss caused by enhanced mesospheric NOx. Our findings show that in the Arctic polar vortex (Equivalent Lat.>70° N) the accumulated column ozone loss between 350–2000 K potential temperature (≈14–50 km altitude) caused by the SPEs in October–November 2003 in the stratosphere is up to 3.3 DU with an upper limit of 5.5 DU until end of November. Further we found that about 10 DU but lower than 18 DU accumulated ozone loss additionally occurs until end of March 2004 caused by the transport of mesospheric NOx-rich air in early 2004. In the lower stratosphere (350–700 K≈14–27 km altitude) the SPEs of October–November 2003 have negligible small impact on ozone loss processes until end of November and the mesospheric NOx intrusions in early 2004 yield ozone loss about 3.5 DU, but clearly lower than 6.5 DU until end of March. Overall, the non-local production of NOx is an additional variability to the existing variations of the ozone loss observed in the Arctic.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 16865-16906 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Hoffmann ◽  
C. M. Hoppe ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
G. S. Dutton ◽  
J. C. Gille ◽  
...  

Abstract. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their global loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 111(96–132) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 112(97–133) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 112(96–135) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.47±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 112(102–123) yr. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43–67) yr and 102(88–122) yr, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95–129) yr, based on a ten-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 9705-9742
Author(s):  
A. M. Aghedo ◽  
K. W. Bowman ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
G. Faluvegi

Abstract. Ensemble climate model simulations used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have become important tools for exploring the response of the Earth System to changes in anthropogenic and natural forcings. The systematic evaluation of these models through global satellite observations is a critical step in assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections. This paper presents the technical steps required for using nadir sun-synchronous infrared satellite observations for multi-model evaluation and the uncertainties associated with each step. This is motivated by need to use satellite observations to evaluate climate models. We quantified the implications of the effect of satellite orbit and spatial coverage, the effect of variations in vertical sensitivity as quantified by the observation operator and the impact of averaging the operators for use with monthly-mean model output. We calculated these biases in ozone, carbon monoxide, atmospheric temperature and water vapour by using the output from two global chemistry climate models (ECHAM5-MOZ and GISS-PUCCINI) and the observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) satellite from January 2005 to December 2008. The results show that sampling and monthly averaging of the observation operators produce biases of less than ±3% for ozone and carbon monoxide throughout the entire troposphere in both models. Water vapour sampling biases were also within the insignificant range of ±3% (that is ±0.14 g kg−1) in both models. Sampling led to a temperature bias of ±0.3 K over the tropical and mid-latitudes in both models, and up to −1.4 K over the boundary layer in the higher latitudes. Using the monthly average of temperature and water vapour operators lead to large biases over the boundary layer in the southern-hemispheric higher latitudes and in the upper troposphere, respectively. Up to 8% bias was calculated in the upper troposphere water vapour due to monthly-mean operators, which may impact the detection of water vapour feedback in response to global warming. Our results reveal the importance of using the averaging kernel and the a priori profiles to account for the limited vertical resolution of a nadir observation during model application. Neglecting the observation operators resulted in large biases, which are more than 60% for ozone, ±30% for carbon monoxide, and range between −1.5 K and 5 K for atmospheric temperature, and between −60% and 100% for water vapour.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 3817-3838
Author(s):  
Xiao Lu ◽  
Lin Zhang ◽  
Tongwen Wu ◽  
Michael S. Long ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Chemistry plays an indispensable role in investigations of the atmosphere; however, many climate models either ignore or greatly simplify atmospheric chemistry, limiting both their accuracy and their scope. We present the development and evaluation of the online global atmospheric chemical model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0, coupling the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) as an atmospheric chemistry component in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC-AGCM). The GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry component includes detailed tropospheric HOx–NOx–volatile organic compounds–ozone–bromine–aerosol chemistry and online dry and wet deposition schemes. We then demonstrate the new capabilities of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 relative to the base BCC-AGCM model through a 3-year (2012–2014) simulation with anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The model captures well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations in tropospheric ozone, with seasonal mean biases of 0.4–2.2 ppbv at 700–400 hPa compared to satellite observations and within 10 ppbv at the surface to 500 hPa compared to global ozonesonde observations. The model has larger high-ozone biases over the tropics which we attribute to an overestimate of ozone chemical production. It underestimates ozone in the upper troposphere which is likely due either to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme or to biases in estimated stratosphere–troposphere exchange dynamics. The model diagnoses the global tropospheric ozone burden, OH concentration, and methane chemical lifetime to be 336 Tg, 1.16×106 molecule cm−3, and 8.3 years, respectively, which is consistent with recent multimodel assessments. The spatiotemporal distributions of NO2, CO, SO2, CH2O, and aerosol optical depth are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The development of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 represents an important step for the development of fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) in China.


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