Reduction of Climate Sensitivity to Solar Forcing due to Stratospheric Ozone Feedback

Abstract An accurate assessment of the role of solar variability is a key step toward a proper quantification of natural and anthropogenic climate change. To this end, climate models have been extensively used to quantify the solar contribution to climate variability. However, owing to the large computational cost, the bulk of modeling studies to date have been performed without interactive stratospheric photochemistry: the impact of this simplification on the modeled climate system response to solar forcing remains largely unknown. Here this impact is quantified by comparing the response of two model configurations, with and without interactive ozone chemistry. Using long integrations, robust surface temperature and precipitation responses to an idealized irradiance increase are obtained. Then, it is shown that the inclusion of interactive stratospheric chemistry significantly reduces the surface warming (by about one-third) and the accompanying precipitation response. This behavior is linked to photochemically induced stratospheric ozone changes, and their modulation of the surface solar radiation. The results herein suggest that neglecting stratospheric photochemistry leads to a sizable overestimate of the surface response to changes in solar irradiance. This has implications for simulations of the climate in the last millennium and geoengineering applications employing irradiance changes larger than those observed over the 11-yr sunspot cycle, where models often use simplified treatments of stratospheric ozone that are inconsistent with the imposed solar forcing.

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The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models

10.5194/acp-2017-477 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Amanda C. Maycock ◽

Katja Matthes ◽

Susann Tegtmeier ◽

Hauke Schmidt ◽

Rémi Thiéblemont ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Temperature Response ◽

Solar Variability ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Stratospheric Temperature ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate model simulations to fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the solar-ozone response (SOR) during the 11 year solar cycle amongst different chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry. We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the WCRP/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with three ozone databases: the Bodeker Scientific database, the SPARC/AC&C database for CMIP5, and the SPARC/CCMI database for CMIP6. The results reveal substantial differences in the representation of the SOR between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. The peak amplitude of theSOR in the upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases from 5 % to 2 % between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. This difference is because the CMIP5 database was constructed from a regression model fit to satellite observations, whereas the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations, which use a spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset with relatively weak UV forcing. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database is therefore implicitly more similar to the SOR in the CCMI-1 models than to the CMIP5 ozone database, which shows a greater resemblance in amplitude and structure to the SOR in the Bodeker database. The latitudinal structure of the annual mean SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows strong gradients in the SOR across the midlatitudes owing to the paucity of observations at high latitudes. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and in the CCMI-1 models show a strong seasonal dependence, including large meridional gradients at mid to high latitudes during winter; such seasonal variations in the SOR are not included in the CMIP5 ozone database. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the impact of changes in the representation of the SOR and SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The experiments show that the smaller amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database compared to CMIP5 causes a decrease in the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response over the solar cycle of up to 0.6 K, or around 50 % of the total amplitude. The changes in the SOR explain most of the difference in the amplitude of the tropical stratospheric temperature response in the case with combined changes in SOR and SSI between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasise the importance of adequately representing the SOR in climate models to capture the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, CMIP6 models without chemistry are encouraged to use the CMIP6 ozone database to capture the climate impacts of solar variability.

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Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16536 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Blanka Bartok

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Power Generation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

The Impact

As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.&#160;&#160;Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014&#160;

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The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone – Part 2: Analysis of global models

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (15) ◽

pp. 11323-11343 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Amanda C. Maycock ◽

Katja Matthes ◽

Susann Tegtmeier ◽

Hauke Schmidt ◽

Rémi Thiéblemont ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Climate Models ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Temperature Response ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Spectral Irradiance ◽

Special Focus ◽

Global Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate simulations to aid in capturing the atmospheric response to solar cycle variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the representation of the 11-year solar cycle ozone response (SOR) in chemistry–climate models (CCMs) and in pre-calculated ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry, with a special focus on comparing the recommended protocols for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with results from three ozone databases for climate models: the Bodeker Scientific ozone database, the SPARC/Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate (AC&C) ozone database for CMIP5 and the SPARC/CCMI ozone database for CMIP6. The peak amplitude of the annual mean SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases by more than a factor of 2, from around 5 to 2 %, between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. This substantial decrease can be traced to the CMIP5 ozone database being constructed from a regression model fit to satellite and ozonesonde measurements, while the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database therefore implicitly resembles the SOR in the CCMI-1 models. The structure in latitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows unrealistic sharp gradients in the SOR across the middle latitudes owing to the paucity of long-term ozone measurements in polar regions. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and the CCMI-1 models show a seasonal dependence with enhanced meridional gradients at mid- to high latitudes in the winter hemisphere. The CMIP5 ozone database does not account for seasonal variations in the SOR, which is unrealistic. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the atmospheric impacts of changes in the representation of the SOR and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The larger amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database compared to CMIP6 causes a likely overestimation of the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response between 11-year solar cycle minimum and maximum by up to 0.55 K, or around 80 % of the total amplitude. This effect is substantially larger than the change in temperature response due to differences in SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasize the importance of adequately representing the SOR in global models to capture the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, we recommend that CMIP6 models without chemistry use the CMIP6 ozone database and the CMIP6 SSI dataset to better capture the climate impacts of solar variability. The SOR coefficients from the CMIP6 ozone database are published with this paper.

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Beyond model spread: a process-based attribution of uncertainties in stratospheric ozone modelling

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19734 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Simon Chabrillat ◽

Vincent Huijnen ◽

Quentin Errera ◽

Jonas Debosscher ◽

Idir Bouarar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Irradiance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Transport Model ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Tropospheric Chemistry ◽

Modelling Uncertainties ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

Model Components ◽

The Impact

Intercomparisons between Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs) have highlighted shortcomings in our understanding and/or modeling of long-term ozone trends, and there is a growing interest in the impact of stratospheric ozone changes on tropospheric chemistry via both ozone fluxes (e.g. from the projected strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation) and actinic fluxes. Advances in this area require a good understanding of the modelling uncertainties in the present-day distribution of stratospheric ozone, and a correct attribution of these uncertainties to the processes governing this distribution: photolysis, chemistry and transport. These processes depend primarily on solar irradiance, temperature and dynamics.Here we estimate model uncertainties arising from different input datasets, and compare them with typical uncertainties arising from the transport and chemistry schemes. This study is based on four sets of tightly controlled sensititivity experiments which all use temperature and dynamics specified from reanalyses of meteorological observations. The first set of experiments uses one Chemistry-Transport Model (CTM) and evaluates the impact of using 3 different spectra of solar irradiance. In the second set, the CTM is run with 4 different input reanalyses: ERA-5, MERRA-2, ERA-I and JRA-55. The third set of experiments still relies on the same CTM, exploring the impact of the transport algorithm and its configuration. The fourth set is the most sophisticated as it is enabled by model developments for the Copernicus Atmopshere Monitoring Service, where the ECMWF model IFS is run with three different photochemistry modules named according to their parent CTM: IFS(CB05-BASCOE), IFS(MOCAGE) and IFS(MOZART).All modelling experiments start from the same initial conditions and last 2.5 years (2013-2015). The uncertainties arising from different input datasets or different model components are estimated from the spreads in each set of sensitivity experiments and also from the gross error between the corresponding model means and the BASCOE Reanalysis of Aura-MLS (BRAM2). The results are compared across the four sets of experiments, as a function of latitude and pressure, with a focus on two regions of the stratosphere: the polar lower stratosphere in winter and spring - in order to assess and understand the quality of our ozone hole forecasts - and the tropical middle and upper stratosphere - where noticeably large disagreements are found between the experiments.

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UV-Indien Network- a network dedicated to the long-term monitoring of UV radiation in the Indian Ocean.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21692 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Thierry Portafaix ◽

Kevin Lamy ◽

Jean-Baptiste Forestier ◽

Solofo Rakotoniaina ◽

Vincent Amélie

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Uv Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Climate Models ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Second Phase ◽

The Tropics ◽

The Impact

Radiation (UV) is one of the main components of solar radiation transmitted by the Earth's atmosphere. Exposure to UV radiation can have both positive and negative effects on the biosphere and humans in particular. Overexposure significantly increases the risk of skin cancer and eye problems.Ozone, cloud cover and zenithal solar angle are the main parameters affecting UV radiation levels at the surface. Stratospheric ozone in particular strongly absorbs UV radiation. A dense cloud cover absorbs UV radiation, while a split cloud cover may tend to amplify it.Although the stratospheric ozone layer is showing signs of recovery from reduced ozone-depleting substances. The impact of greenhouse gases on the climate is still in increase and global climate models anticipate an acceleration in Brewer-Dobson Circulation, which would lead to lower ozone levels in the tropics. Butler et al. (2016) estimate a decrease in stratospheric ozone in the tropics of 5 to 10 DU for all climate scenarios. Some recent projections (Lamy et al., 2019) predict a 2-3% increase in UVR in the southern tropical band, a region where UV levels are already extreme.The purpose of the UV-Indien network is to :- Monitor UV levels at different sites in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO)- Describe the annual and inter-annual variability of UV radiation in the WIO- Perform regional climate projections of UV radiations, validated by quality ground measurements.UV-Indien is split into three phases. The first phase began in 2016, with the deployment of the first measurement sites (Reunion Island, Madagascar, Seychelles, Rodrigues). These sites are equipped with a broadband radiometer measuring the UVI and a camera estimating the coverage and sometimes a spectrometer for the measurement of total ozone. The second phase from 2019, sees the extension of this network to 4 other sites (Juan de Nova, Diego Suarez, Fort Dauphin and Grande Comoros). The data validation phase began in 2019 (comparative study with satellite data) and will also propose the study of the variability of UV radiation on different sites. Finally, climate projections will be made from 2020 onwards and will use data from the network to validate the results.The aim of this communication is to describe the entire network and its objectives. The first results, as well as the first climatologies will also be discussed.

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Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-10-1193-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 1193-1201 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

K. Ashworth ◽

O. Wild ◽

C. N. Hewitt

Keyword(s):

Temporal Resolution ◽

Input Data ◽

Climate Models ◽

Computational Cost ◽

Earth System ◽

Climate Data ◽

Isoprene Emission ◽

Monthly Average ◽

Hourly Data ◽

The Impact

Abstract. We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y−1 when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y−1 (a reduction of 3%) for daily average input data and 711 Tg y−1 (down 7%) for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

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The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Tropopause Height Trends

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2215.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 429-445 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

Seok-Woo Son ◽

Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽

Darryn W. Waugh ◽

Thomas Birner ◽

Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Climate Models ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Reliable Estimate ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Future ◽

Realistic Representation ◽

High Vertical Resolution ◽

The Impact

Abstract The evolution of the tropopause in the past, present, and future climate is examined by analyzing a set of long-term integrations with stratosphere-resolving chemistry climate models (CCMs). These CCMs have high vertical resolution near the tropopause, a model top located in the mesosphere or above, and, most important, fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Using such CCM integrations, it is found that the tropopause pressure (height) will continue to decrease (increase) in the future, but with a trend weaker than that in the recent past. The reduction in the future tropopause trend is shown to be directly associated with stratospheric ozone recovery. A significant ozone recovery occurs in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere of the CCMs, and this leads to a relative warming there that reduces the tropopause trend in the twenty-first century. The future tropopause trends predicted by the CCMs are considerably smaller than those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models, especially in the southern high latitudes. This difference persists even when the CCMs are compared with the subset of the AR4 model integrations for which stratospheric ozone recovery was prescribed. These results suggest that a realistic representation of the stratospheric processes might be important for a reliable estimate of tropopause trends. The implications of these finding for the Southern Hemisphere climate change are also discussed.

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The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-13-00136.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 27 (3) ◽

pp. 1100-1120 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

David H. Rind ◽

Judith L. Lean ◽

Jeffrey Jonas

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Middle Atmosphere ◽

Global Climate ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The Impact

Abstract Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.4°C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model’s depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

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Coupling of Arctic ozone and stratospheric dynamics and its influence on surface climate: the role of CFC concentrations.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9118 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Marina Friedel ◽

Gabriel Chiodo ◽

Stefan Muthers ◽

Julien Anet ◽

Andrea Stenke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Radiative Processes ◽

Surface Climate ◽

Stratospheric Dynamics ◽

Year 2000 ◽

The Impact ◽

Chemistry Dynamics ◽

Surface Signature

Arctic stratospheric ozone has been shown to exert a statistically significant influence on Northern Hemispheric surface climate. This suggests that Arctic ozone is not only passively responding to dynamical variability in the stratosphere, but actively feeds back into the circulation through chemical and radiative processes. However, the extent and causality of the chemistry-dynamics coupling is still unknown. Since many state-of-the-art climate models lack a sufficient representation of ozone-dynamic feedbacks, a quantification of this coupling can be used to improve intra-seasonal weather and long-term climate forecasts.We assess the importance of the ozone-dynamics coupling by performing simulations with and without interactive chemistry in two Chemistry Climate Models. The chemistry-dynamics coupling was examined in two different sets of time-slice simulations: one using pre-industrial, and one using year-2000 boundary conditions. We focus on the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) and strong vortex events on stratosphere-troposphere coupling, since these go along with strong ozone anomalies and therefore an intensified ozone feedback.&#160; We compare the runs with and without interactive chemistry.For pre-industrial conditions, simulations without interactive ozone show a more intense and longer lasting surface signature of SSWs compared to simulations with interactive chemistry. Conversely, for year-2000 conditions, the opposite effect is found: interactive chemistry amplifies the surface signature of SSWs. Following these results, atmospheric CFC concentrations, which differ greatly in the pre-industrial and year-2000 runs, determine the sign of the ozone-circulation feedback, and thus have a strong impact on chemistry-climate coupling. Implications for modeling of stratosphere-troposphere coupling and future projections are discussed.

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Intercomparison between Surrogate, Explicit and Full Treatments of VSL Bromine Chemistry within the CAM-Chem Chemistry-Climate Model

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11411 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rafael P. Fernandez ◽

Javier Alejandro Barrera ◽

Ana I. López-Noreña ◽

Douglas E. Kinnison ◽

Julie Nicely ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Total Ozone ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Computational Cost ◽

Tropospheric Chemistry ◽

Free Troposphere ◽

Chemical Complexity ◽

Global Impacts ◽

Ozone Column

Many Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) include a simplified treatment of brominated very short-lived (VSLBr) species by assuming long-lived methyl bromide (CH3Br) as a surrogate for VSLBr. However, given that VSLBr (i.e., bromoform CHBr3 and dibromomethane CH2Br2) decompose more rapidly than CH3Br, their impact on upper tropospheric chemistry and lowermost stratospheric ozone cannot be neglected. Thus, a mistreatment of VSLBr in CCMs may yield an unrealistic representation of their associated impacts. Here, we present a comprehensive intercomparison between various VSLBr chemical approaches with increasing degrees of complexity (i.e., surrogate, explicit, and full), and quantify the global impacts of these natural bromocarbons on tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, as well as on other oxidizing agents. &#160;Differences between chemical schemes maximize in the lowermost stratosphere and mid-latitude free troposphere, resulting in a latitudinally dependent reduction of ~1&#8722;7 DU in total ozone column and a ~5&#8722;15 % decrease of the OH/HO2 ratio, for full compared to surrogate. These bromine-driven changes in HOx abundances are expected to slow-down the oxidative processing of greenhouse gases (i.e., to increase the CH4 lifetime) in a region where these long-lived species have a final chance to undergo tropospheric degradation before injection to the stratosphere. Given the negligible additional computational cost and chemical complexity, we encourage all CCMs oriented to projecting the coupled evolution of stratospheric ozone within a changing climate to include a complete tropospheric representation of VSLBr sources and chemistry in the troposphere and stratosphere.

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