scholarly journals Testing chemistry-climate models' regulation of tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Smalley ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler ◽  
Slimane Bekki ◽  
Makoto Deushi ◽  
Marion Marchand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Climate models predict that tropical lower stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms, with important implications for the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze the trend in 21st-century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models (CCMs) using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends. Within CCMs, the long-term trend in humidity is primarily driven by warming of the troposphere. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency in most CCMs is that they underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower stratospheric humidity. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower stratospheric humidity.

scholarly journals Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 8031-8044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Smalley ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler ◽  
Slimane Bekki ◽  
Makoto Deushi ◽  
Marion Marchand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs), using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity.

scholarly journals The impact of temperature vertical structure on trajectory modeling of stratospheric water vapor

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 3517-3526 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Wang ◽  
A. E. Dessler ◽  
M. R. Schoeberl ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
J.-E. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract. Lagrangian trajectories driven by reanalysis meteorological fields are frequently used to study water vapor (H2O) in the stratosphere, in which the tropical cold-point temperatures regulate the amount of H2O entering the stratosphere. Therefore, the accuracy of temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is of great importance for understanding stratospheric H2O abundances. Currently, most reanalyses, such as the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective – analysis for Research and Applications), only provide temperatures with ~ 1.2 km vertical resolution in the TTL, which has been argued to miss finer vertical structure in the tropopause and therefore introduce uncertainties in our understanding of stratospheric H2O. In this paper, we quantify this uncertainty by comparing the Lagrangian trajectory prediction of H2O using MERRA temperatures on standard model levels (traj.MER-T) to those using GPS temperatures at finer vertical resolution (traj.GPS-T), and those using adjusted MERRA temperatures with finer vertical structures induced by waves (traj.MER-Twave). It turns out that by using temperatures with finer vertical structure in the tropopause, the trajectory model more realistically simulates the dehydration of air entering the stratosphere. But the effect on H2O abundances is relatively minor: compared with traj.MER-T, traj.GPS-T tends to dry air by ~ 0.1 ppmv, while traj.MER-Twave tends to dry air by 0.2–0.3 ppmv. Despite these differences in absolute values of predicted H2O and vertical dehydration patterns, there is virtually no difference in the interannual variability in different runs. Overall, we find that a tropopause temperature with finer vertical structure has limited impact on predicted stratospheric H2O.

scholarly journals An update on the uncertainties of water vapor measurements using cryogenic frost point hygrometers

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 3755-3768 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Vömel ◽  
Tatjana Naebert ◽  
Ruud Dirksen ◽  
Michael Sommer
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Frost Point ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Long time series of observations of essential climate variables in the troposphere and stratosphere are often impacted by inconsistencies in instrumentation and ambiguities in the interpretation of the data. To reduce these problems of long-term data series, all measurements should include an estimate of their uncertainty and a description of their sources. Here we present an update of the uncertainties for tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor observations using the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH). The largest source of measurement uncertainty is the controller stability, which is discussed here in detail. We describe a method to quantify this uncertainty for each profile based on the measurements. We also show the importance of a manufacturer-independent ground check, which is an essential tool to continuously monitor the uncertainty introduced by instrument variability. A small bias, which has previously been indicated in lower tropospheric measurements, is described here in detail and has been rectified. Under good conditions, the total from all sources of uncertainty of frost point or dew point measurements using the CFH can be better than 0.2 K. Systematic errors, which are most likely to impact long-term climate series, are verified to be less than 0.1 K. The impact of the radiosonde pressure uncertainty on the mixing ratio for properly processed radiosondes is considered small. The mixing ratio uncertainty may be as low as 2 to 3 %. The impact of the ambient temperature uncertainty on relative humidity (RH) is generally larger than that of the frost point uncertainty. The relative RH uncertainty may be as low as 2 % in the lower troposphere and 5 % in the tropical tropopause region.

scholarly journals Long-term climatology of air mass transport through the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) during NH winter

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 813-823 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Krüger ◽  
S. Tegtmeier ◽  
M. Rex
Keyword(s):  
Mass Transport ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause

Abstract. A long-term climatology of air mass transport through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is presented, covering the period from 1962–2005. The transport through the TTL is calculated with a Lagrangian approach using radiative heating rates as vertical velocities in an isentropic trajectory model. We demonstrate the improved performance of such an approach compared to previous studies using vertical winds from meteorological analyses. Within the upper part of the TTL, the averaged diabatic ascent is 0.5 K/day during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters 1992–2001. Climatological maps show a cooling and strengthening of this part of the residual circulation during the 1990s and early 2000s compared to the long-term mean. Lagrangian cold point (LCP) fields show systematic differences for varying time periods and natural forcing components. The interannual variability of LCP temperature and density fields is found to be influenced by volcanic eruptions, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. The coldest and driest TTL is reached during QBO easterly phase and La Niña over the western Pacific, whereas during volcanic eruptions, El Niño and QBO westerly phase it is warmer and less dry.

scholarly journals Effects of tropical deep convection on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Ye ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler ◽  
Wandi Yu
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Tropical Deep Convection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. Water vapor interannual variability in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is investigated using satellite observations and model simulations. We breakdown the influences of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the tropospheric temperature (ΔT) as a function of latitude and longitude using a 2-dimensional multivariable linear regression. This allows us to examine the spatial distribution of the impact on TTL water vapor from these physical processes. In agreement with expectation, we find that the impacts from the BDC and QBO act on TTL water vapor by changing TTL temperature. For ΔT, we find that TTL temperatures alone cannot explain the influence. We hypothesize a moistening role for the evaporation of convective ice from increased deep convection as troposphere warms. Tests with simulations from GEOSCCM and a corresponding trajectory model support this hypothesis.

scholarly journals Coordinated Upper-Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Balloon Experiment in Biak

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (6) ◽  
pp. 1213-1230 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hasebe ◽  
S. Aoki ◽  
S. Morimoto ◽  
Y. Inai ◽  
T. Nakazawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Tape Recorder ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Balloon Experiment

AbstractThe stratospheric response to climate forcing, such as an increase in greenhouse gases, is often unpredictable because of interactions between radiation, dynamics, and chemistry. Climate models are unsuccessful in simulating the realistic distribution of stratospheric water vapor. The long-term trend of the stratospheric age of air (AoA), a measure that characterizes the stratospheric turnover time, remains inconsistent between diagnoses in climate models and estimates from tracer observations. For these reasons, observations designed specifically to distinguish the effects of individual contributing processes are required. Here, we report on the Coordinated Upper-Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Balloon Experiment in Biak (CUBE/Biak), an observation campaign organized in Indonesia. Being inside the “tropical pipe” makes it possible to study the dehydration in the tropical tropopause layer and the gradual ascent in the stratosphere while minimizing the effects of multiple circulation pathways and wave mixing. Cryogenic sampling of minor constituents and major isotopes was conducted simultaneously with radiosonde observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosols, and cloud particles. The water vapor “tape recorder,” gravitational separation, and isotopocules are being studied in conjunction with tracers that are accumulated in the atmosphere as dynamical and chemical measures of elapsed time since stratospheric air entry. The observational estimates concerning the AoA and water vapor tape recorder are compared with those derived from trajectory calculations.

scholarly journals Comparison of equatorial wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in reanalyses

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Ha Kim ◽  
George N. Kiladis ◽  
John R. Albers ◽  
Juliana Dias ◽  
Masatomo Fujiwara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Spatial Structures ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Considerable Spread

Abstract. Equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in recent reanalyses for the period of 1981–2010 are compared in terms of spectral characteristics, spatial structures, long-term variations and their forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation. For both wave types, the spectral distributions are broadly similar among most of the reanalyses, while the peak amplitudes exhibit considerable spread. The longitudinal distributions and spatial patterns of wave perturbations show reasonable agreement between the reanalyses. A few exceptions to the similarity of the spectral shapes and spatial structures among them are also noted. While the interannual variations of wave activity appear to be coherent for both the Kelvin and MRG waves, there is substantial variability in long-term trends among the reanalyses. Most of the reanalyses which assimilate satellite data exhibit large increasing trends in wave variance (~ 15–50 % increase in the 30 years at 100–10 hPa), whereas one reanalysis (JRA-55C) produced without satellite data does not. Several discontinuities are found around 1998 in the time series of the Kelvin and MRG wave variances, which manifest in different ways depending on the reanalysis, and are indicative of impacts of the transition of satellite measurements during that year. The equatorial wave forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation, estimated by the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence, occurs in similar phase-speed ranges among the reanalyses, while the forcing magnitudes show considerable spread. The forcing maxima of the Kelvin waves exhibit slightly different altitudes between the reanalyses (by ~ 3 km at around 15 hPa). In addition, at around 20 hPa, a wave signal which appears only in easterly mean winds with westward phase speeds is found and discussed.

The Impact of the QBO on MJO Convection in Cloud-Resolving Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 669-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zane Martin ◽  
Shuguang Wang ◽  
Ji Nie ◽  
Adam Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in a limited-area cloud-resolving model with parameterized large-scale dynamics. The model is used to simulate two consecutive MJO events that occurred during the late fall and early winter of 2011. To test the influence of the QBO on the simulated MJO events, various QBO states are imposed via the addition of characteristic wind and temperature anomalies. In experiments with only QBO temperature anomalies imposed (without corresponding zonal wind anomalies) the strength of convection during MJO active phases is amplified for the QBO easterly phase [an anomalously cold tropical tropopause layer (TTL)] compared to the westerly QBO phase (a warm TTL), as measured by outgoing longwave radiation, cloud fraction, and large-scale ascent. This response is qualitatively consistent with the observed MJO–QBO relationship. The response of precipitation is weaker, and is less consistent across variations in the simulation configuration. Experiments with only imposed QBO wind anomalies (without corresponding temperature anomalies) show much weaker effects altogether than those with imposed temperature anomalies, suggesting that TTL temperature anomalies are a key pathway through which the QBO can modulate the MJO. Sensitivity tests indicate that the QBO influence on MJO convection depends on both the amplitude and the height of the QBO temperature anomaly: lower-altitude and larger-amplitude temperature anomalies have more pronounced effects on MJO convection.

scholarly journals The Tropical Tropopause Layer 1960–2100

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1621-1637 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gettelman ◽  
T. Birner ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Basic Structure ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Cold Point

Abstract. The representation of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) in 13 different Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) designed to represent the stratosphere is analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 and 1980–2100 are analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 are compared to reanalysis model output. CCMs are able to reproduce the basic structure of the TTL. There is a large (10 K) spread in annual mean tropical cold point tropopause temperatures. CCMs are able to reproduce historical trends in tropopause pressure obtained from reanalysis products. Simulated historical trends in cold point tropopause temperatures are not consistent across models or reanalyses. The pressure of both the tropical tropopause and the level of main convective outflow appear to have decreased (increased altitude) in historical runs as well as in reanalyses. Decreasing pressure trends in the tropical tropopause and level of main convective outflow are also seen in the future. Models consistently predict decreasing tropopause and convective outflow pressure, by several hPa/decade. Tropical cold point temperatures are projected to increase by 0.09 K/decade. Tropopause anomalies are highly correlated with tropical surface temperature anomalies and with tropopause level ozone anomalies, less so with stratospheric temperature anomalies. Simulated stratospheric water vapor at 90 hPa increases by up to 0.5–1 ppmv by 2100. The result is consistent with the simulated increase in temperature, highlighting the correlation of tropopause temperatures with stratospheric water vapor.

scholarly journals Comparison of equatorial wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in reanalyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 10027-10050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Ha Kim ◽  
George N. Kiladis ◽  
John R. Albers ◽  
Juliana Dias ◽  
Masatomo Fujiwara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Spatial Structures ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Equatorial Wave

Abstract. Equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in recent reanalyses for the period of 1981–2010 are compared in terms of spectral characteristics, spatial structures, long-term variations, and their forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). For both wave types, the spectral distributions are broadly similar among most of the reanalyses, while the peak amplitudes exhibit considerable spread. The longitudinal distributions and spatial patterns of wave perturbations show reasonable agreement between the reanalyses. A few exceptions to the similarity of the spectral shapes and spatial structures among them are also noted. While the interannual variations of wave activity appear to be coherent for both the Kelvin and MRG waves, there is substantial variability in long-term trends among the reanalyses. Most of the reanalyses which assimilate satellite data exhibit large increasing trends in wave variance (∼15 %–50 % increase in 30 years at 100–10 hPa), whereas one reanalysis (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis assimilating conventional observations only; JRA-55C) produced without satellite data does not. Several discontinuities are found around 1998 in the time series of the Kelvin and MRG wave variances, which manifest in different ways depending on the reanalysis, and are indicative of impacts of the transition of satellite measurements during that year. The equatorial wave forcing of the QBO, estimated by the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux divergence, occurs in similar phase-speed ranges in the lower stratosphere among the reanalyses. However, the EP flux and its divergence are found to be dependent on the zonal-mean winds represented in reanalyses, exhibiting different magnitudes, altitudes, and phase-speed ranges of the Kelvin wave forcing between the reanalyses, especially at 20–10 hPa. In addition, at around 20 hPa, a wave signal which appears only in easterly mean winds with westward phase speeds is found and discussed.

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