scholarly journals On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 13161-13199 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Frossard ◽  
H. E. Rieder ◽  
M. Ribatet ◽  
J. Staehelin ◽  
J. A. Maeder ◽  
...  

Abstract. We use models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone on spatial scales to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes. The r-largest order statistics method is used for pointwise analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively). For the corresponding mean value analysis a pointwise autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) is used. The statistical models include important atmospheric covariates to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El~Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the ozone distribution, respectively described by means and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates.

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 9623-9639 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brönnimann ◽  
J. Bhend ◽  
J. Franke ◽  
S. Flückiger ◽  
A. M. Fischer ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 2533-2548 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. K. Bhartia ◽  
R. D. McPeters ◽  
L. E. Flynn ◽  
S. Taylor ◽  
N. A. Kramarova ◽  
...  

Abstract. We describe the algorithm that has been applied to develop a 42 yr record of total ozone and ozone profiles from eight Solar Backscatter UV (SBUV) instruments launched on NASA and NOAA satellites since April 1970. The Version 8 (V8) algorithm was released more than a decade ago and has been in use since then at NOAA to produce their operational ozone products. The current algorithm (V8.6) is basically the same as V8, except for updates to instrument calibration, incorporation of new ozone absorption cross-sections, and new ozone and cloud height climatologies. Since the V8 algorithm has been optimized for deriving monthly zonal mean (MZM) anomalies for ozone assessment and model comparisons, our emphasis in this paper is primarily on characterizing the sources of errors that are relevant for such studies. When data are analyzed this way the effect of some errors, such as vertical smoothing of short-term variability, and noise due to clouds and aerosols diminish in importance, while the importance of others, such as errors due to vertical smoothing of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and other periodic and aperiodic variations, become more important. With V8.6 zonal mean data we now provide smoothing kernels that can be used to compare anomalies in SBUV profile and partial ozone columns with models. In this paper we show how to use these kernels to compare SBUV data with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profiles. These kernels are particularly useful for comparisons in the lower stratosphere where SBUV profiles have poor vertical resolution but partial column ozone values have high accuracy. We also provide our best estimate of the smoothing errors associated with SBUV MZM profiles. Since smoothing errors are the largest source of uncertainty in these profiles, they can be treated as error bars in deriving interannual variability and trends using SBUV data and for comparing with other measurements. In the V8 and V8.6 algorithms we derive total column ozone by integrating the SBUV profiles, rather than from a separate set of wavelengths, as was done in previous algorithm versions. This allows us to extend the total ozone retrieval to 88° solar zenith angle (SZA). Since the quality of total column data is affected by reduced sensitivity to ozone in the lower atmosphere by cloud and Rayleigh attenuation, which gets worse with increasing SZA, we provide our best estimate of these errors, as well as the kernels that can be used to test the sensitivity of the derived columns to long-term changes in ozone in the lower atmosphere.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Frossard ◽  
H. E. Rieder ◽  
M. Ribatet ◽  
J. Staehelin ◽  
J. A. Maeder ◽  
...  

Abstract. We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland, the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results for both NAO and AAO confirm the importance of atmospheric dynamics for ozone variability and changes from local/regional to global scales.


2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (21) ◽  
pp. 5625-5637 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
H. Garny ◽  
D. Smale ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
R. Deckert

Abstract. One of the most significant events in the evolution of the ozone layer over southern mid-latitudes since the late 1970s was the large decrease observed in 1985. This event remains unexplained and a detailed investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the event has not previously been undertaken. In this study, the 1985 Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude total column ozone anomaly is analyzed in detail based on observed daily total column ozone fields, stratospheric dynamical fields, and calculated diagnostics of stratospheric mixing. The 1985 anomaly appears to result from a combination of (i) an anomaly in the meridional circulation resulting from the westerly phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (ii) weaker transport of ozone from its tropical mid-stratosphere source across the sub-tropical barrier to mid-latitudes related to the particular phasing of the QBO with respect to the annual cycle, and (iii) a solar cycle induced reduction in ozone. Similar QBO and solar cycle influences prevailed in 1997 and 2006 when again total column ozone was found to be suppressed over southern mid-latitudes. The results based on observations are compared and contrasted with analyses of ozone and dynamical fields from the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM coupled chemistry-climate model (hereafter referred to as E39C). Equatorial winds in the E39C model are nudged towards observed winds between 10° S and 10° N and the ability of this model to produce an ozone anomaly in 1985, similar to that observed, confirms the role of the QBO in effecting the anomaly.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 10081-10115 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. W. Chiou ◽  
P. K. Bhartia ◽  
R. D. McPeters ◽  
D. G. Loyola ◽  
M. Coldewey-Egbers ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper describes the comparison of the variability of total column ozone inferred from the three independent multi-year data records, namely, (i) SBUV(v8.6) profile total ozone, (ii) GTO(GOME-Type total ozone), and (iii) Ground-based total ozone data records covering the 16-yr overlap period (March 1996 through June 2011). Analyses are conducted based on area weighted zonal means for (0–30° S), (0–30° N), (50–30° S), and (30–60° N). It has been found that on average, the differences in monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between −0.32 to 0.76 % and are well within 1%. For "GTO minus SBUV", the standard deviations and ranges (maximum minus minimum) of the differences regarding monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between 0.58 to 0.66% and 2.83 to 3.82% respectively, depending on the latitude band. The corresponding standard deviations and ranges regarding the differences in monthly zonal mean anomalies show values between 0.40 to 0.59% and 2.19 to 3.53%. The standard deviations and ranges of the differences "Ground-based minus SBUV" regarding both monthly zonal means and anomalies are larger by a factor of 1.4 to 2.9 in comparison to "GTO minus SBUV". The Ground-based zonal means, while show no systematic differences, demonstrate larger scattering of monthly data compared to satellite-based records. The differences in the scattering are significantly reduced if seasonal zonal averages are analyzed. The trends of the differences "GTO minus SBUV" and "Ground-based minus SBUV" are found to vary between −0.04 and 0.12% yr−1 (−0.11 and 0.31 DU yr−1). These negligibly small trends have provided strong evidence that there are no significant time dependent differences among these multi-year total ozone data records. Analyses of the deviations from pre-1980 level indicate that for the overlap period of 1996 to 2010, all three data records show gradual recovery at (30–60° N) from −5% in 1996 to −2% in 2010. The corresponding recovery at (50–30° S) is not as obvious until after 2006.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 3595-3610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Vaskuri ◽  
Petri Kärhä ◽  
Luca Egli ◽  
Julian Gröbner ◽  
Erkki Ikonen

Abstract. We demonstrate the use of a Monte Carlo model to estimate the uncertainties in total ozone column (TOC) derived from ground-based direct solar spectral irradiance measurements. The model estimates the effects of possible systematic spectral deviations in the solar irradiance spectra on the uncertainties in retrieved TOC. The model is tested with spectral data measured with three different spectroradiometers at an intercomparison campaign of the research project “Traceability for atmospheric total column ozone” at Izaña, Tenerife on 17 September 2016. The TOC values derived at local noon have expanded uncertainties of 1.3 % (3.6 DU) for a high-end scanning spectroradiometer, 1.5 % (4.4 DU) for a high-end array spectroradiometer, and 4.7 % (13.3 DU) for a roughly adopted instrument based on commercially available components and an array spectroradiometer when correlations are taken into account. When neglecting the effects of systematic spectral deviations, the uncertainties reduce by a factor of 3. The TOC results of all devices have good agreement with each other, within the uncertainties, and with the reference values of the order of 282 DU during the analysed day, measured with Brewer spectrophotometer #183.


2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Haßler ◽  
C. Brühl ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  

Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Arctic may be underestimated by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s. Main contributions to the observed interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to -10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to -40 DU/decade at high southern latitudes, and around -0.7 K/decade over much of the globe), from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak), the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or 1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations. Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to -30 DU, or +3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.


2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 525-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Guillas ◽  
G. C. Tiao ◽  
D. J. Wuebbles ◽  
A. Zubrow

Abstract. In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 9207-9248 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Haßler ◽  
C. Brühl ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  

Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2002, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2002, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Both models reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability, MAECHAM4-CHEM somewhat better than E39/C. Total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature show similar patterns. Main contributions to the interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to −30 Dobson Units (DU) per decade, or −1.5 K/decade), the QBO (up to 25 DU, or 2.5 K peak to peak), the intensity of the polar vortices (up to 50 DU, or 5 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 30 DU, or 3 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 25 DU, or 2.5 K), and to ENSO (up to 15 DU, or 1.5 K). Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to −40 DU, or +3 K). Most stratospheric variations are connected to the troposphere, both in observations and simulations. At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high- latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Vaskuri ◽  
Petri Kärhä ◽  
Luca Egli ◽  
Julian Gröbner ◽  
Erkki Ikonen

Abstract. We demonstrate a Monte Carlo model to calculate the uncertainties of total ozone column, TOC, derived from ground-based directional solar spectral irradiance measurements. The model takes into account effects that correlations in the spectral irradiance data may have on the results. The model is tested with spectral data measured with three different spectroradiometers at an intercomparison campaign of the research project Traceability for atmospheric total column ozone at Izaña, Tenerife on 17 September 2016. The TOC values derived at noon have expanded uncertainties of 1.3 % for a high-end scanning spectroradiometer, 1.3 % for a high-end array spectroradiometer, and 3.3 % for a roughly adopted instrument based on commercially available components and an array spectroradiometer. The level of TOC measured with reference Brewer spectrophotometer #183 is of the order of 282 DU during the analysed day and in agreement with the results of the two former instruments.


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