scholarly journals Radiative and climate impacts of a large volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (15) ◽  
pp. 21837-21881 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laakso ◽  
H. Kokkola ◽  
A.-I. Partanen ◽  
U. Niemeier ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Concurrent Case ◽  
Radiation Management

Abstract. Both explosive volcanic eruptions, which emit sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, and stratospheric geoengineering via sulfur injections can potentially cool the climate by increasing the amount of scattering particles in the atmosphere. Here we employ a global aerosol-climate model and an earth system model to study the radiative and climate impacts of an erupting volcano during solar radiation management (SRM). According to our simulations, the radiative impacts of an eruption and SRM are not additive: in the simulated case of concurrent eruption and SRM, the peak increase in global forcing is about 40 % lower compared to a corresponding eruption into a clean background atmosphere. In addition, the recovery of the stratospheric sulfate burden and forcing was significantly faster in the concurrent case since the sulfate particles grew larger and thus sedimented faster from the stratosphere. In our simulation where we assumed that SRM would be stopped immediately after a volcano eruption, stopping SRM decreased the overall stratospheric aerosol load. For the same reasons, a volcanic eruption during SRM lead to only about 1/3 of the peak global ensemble-mean cooling compared to an eruption under unperturbed atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the global cooling signal was seen only for 12 months after the eruption in the former scenario compared to over 40 months in the latter. In terms of the global precipitation rate, we obtain a 36 % smaller decrease in the first year after the eruption and again a clearly faster recovery in the concurrent eruption and SRM scenario. We also found that an explosive eruption could lead to significantly different regional climate responses depending on whether it takes place during geoengineering or into an unperturbed background atmosphere. Our results imply that observations from previous large eruptions, such as Mt Pinatubo in 1991, are not directly applicable when estimating the potential consequences of a volcanic eruption during stratospheric geoengineering.

scholarly journals Radiative and climate impacts of a large volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laakso ◽  
H. Kokkola ◽  
A.-I. Partanen ◽  
U. Niemeier ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Both explosive volcanic eruptions, which emit sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, and stratospheric geoengineering via sulfur injections can potentially cool the climate by increasing the amount of scattering particles in the atmosphere. Here we employ a global aerosol-climate model and an Earth system model to study the radiative and climate changes occurring after an erupting volcano during solar radiation management (SRM). According to our simulations the radiative impacts of the eruption and SRM are not additive and the radiative effects and climate changes occurring after the eruption depend strongly on whether SRM is continued or suspended after the eruption. In the former case, the peak burden of the additional stratospheric sulfate as well as changes in global mean precipitation are fairly similar regardless of whether the eruption takes place in a SRM or non-SRM world. However, the maximum increase in the global mean radiative forcing caused by the eruption is approximately 21 % lower compared to a case when the eruption occurs in an unperturbed atmosphere. In addition, the recovery of the stratospheric sulfur burden and radiative forcing is significantly faster after the eruption, because the eruption during the SRM leads to a smaller number and larger sulfate particles compared to the eruption in a non-SRM world. On the other hand, if SRM is suspended immediately after the eruption, the peak increase in global forcing caused by the eruption is about 32 % lower compared to a corresponding eruption into a clean background atmosphere. In this simulation, only about one-third of the global ensemble-mean cooling occurs after the eruption, compared to that occurring after an eruption under unperturbed atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the global cooling signal is seen only for the 12 months after the eruption in the former scenario compared to over 40 months in the latter. In terms of global precipitation rate, we obtain a 36 % smaller decrease in the first year after the eruption and again a clearly faster recovery in the concurrent eruption and SRM scenario, which is suspended after the eruption. We also found that an explosive eruption could lead to significantly different regional climate responses depending on whether it takes place during geoengineering or into an unperturbed background atmosphere. Our results imply that observations from previous large eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, are not directly applicable when estimating the potential consequences of a volcanic eruption during stratospheric geoengineering.

scholarly journals Substantial Climate Response outside the Target Area in an Idealized Experiment of Regional Radiation Management

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Sudhakar Dipu ◽  
Johannes Quaas ◽  
Martin Quaas ◽  
Wilfried Rickels ◽  
Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Local Cooling ◽  
Target Region ◽  
Radiation Management

Radiation management (RM) has been proposed as a conceivable climate engineering (CE) intervention to mitigate global warming. In this study, we used a coupled climate model (MPI-ESM) with a very idealized setup to investigate the efficacy and risks of CE at a local scale in space and time (regional radiation management, RRM) assuming that cloud modification is technically possible. RM is implemented in the climate model by the brightening of low-level clouds (solar radiation management, SRM) and thinning of cirrus (terrestrial radiation management, TRM). The region chosen is North America, and we simulated a period of 30 years. The implemented sustained RM resulted in a net local radiative forcing of −9.8 Wm−2 and a local cooling of −0.8 K. Surface temperature (SAT) extremes (90th and 10th percentiles) show negative anomalies in the target region. However, substantial climate impacts were also simulated outside the target area, with warming in the Arctic and pronounced precipitation change in the eastern Pacific. As a variant of RRM, a targeted intervention to suppress heat waves (HW) was investigated in further simulations by implementing intermittent cloud modification locally, prior to the simulated HW situations. In most cases, the intermittent RRM results in a successful reduction of temperatures locally, with substantially smaller impacts outside the target area compared to the sustained RRM.

scholarly journals Large variations in volcanic aerosol forcing efficiency due to eruption source parameters and rapid adjustments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Marshall ◽  
Christopher Smith ◽  
Piers Forster ◽  
Thomas Aubry ◽  
Anja Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>The relationship between volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) and volcanic forcing is key to quantify the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions. In their fifth assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses a single scaling factor between volcanic SAOD and effective radiative forcing (ERF) based on climate model simulations of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which may not be appropriate for eruptions of different magnitudes. Using a large-ensemble of aerosol-chemistry-climate simulations of eruptions with different SO<sub>2</sub> emissions, latitudes, emission altitudes and seasons, we find that the effective radiative forcing is on average 21% less than the instantaneous radiative forcing, predominantly due to a positive shortwave cloud adjustment.  In our model, the volcanic SAOD to ERF relationship is non-unique and depends strongly on eruption latitude and season. We recommend a power law fit in the form of ERF = -15.1 × SAOD<sup>0.88</sup> to convert SAOD (in the range of 0.01-0.7) to ERF.</p>

scholarly journals The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

scholarly journals Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siv K. Lauvset ◽  
Jerry Tjiputra ◽  
Helene Muri
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Mean Sea Surface ◽  
Radiation Management

Abstract. Here we use an Earth System Model with interactive biogeochemistry to project future ocean biogeochemistry impacts from large-scale deployment of three different radiation management (RM) climate engineering (also known as geoengineering) methods: stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), marine sky brightening (MSB), and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT). We apply RM such that the change in radiative forcing in the RCP8.5 emission scenario is reduced to the change in radiative forcing in the RCP4.5 scenario. The resulting global mean sea surface temperatures in the RM experiments are comparable to those in RCP4.5, but there are regional differences. The forcing from MSB, for example, is applied over the oceans, so the cooling of the ocean is in some regions stronger for this method of RM than for the others. Changes in ocean primary production are much more variable, but SAI and MSB give a global decrease comparable to RCP4.5 (~ 6 % in 2100 relative to 1971–2000), while CCT give a much smaller global decrease of ~ 3 %. The spatially inhomogeneous changes in ocean primary production are partly linked to how the different RM methods affect the drivers of primary production (incoming radiation, temperature, availability of nutrients, and phytoplankton) in the model. The results of this work underscores the complexity of climate impacts on primary production, and highlights that changes are driven by an integrated effect of multiple environmental drivers, which all change in different ways. These results stress the uncertain changes to ocean productivity in the future and advocates caution at any deliberate attempt for large-scale perturbation of the Earth system.

scholarly journals Evaluating the atmospheric drivers leading to the December Flood 2014 in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils H. Schade
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Situation

Abstract. Regional analyses of atmospheric conditions that may cause flooding of important transport infrastructure (railway tracks, highways/roads, rivers/channels) and subsequent adaptation measures are part of the Expertennetzwerk initiated by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). As an exemplary case study, the December flood 2014 in Schleswig–Holstein, Germany, was investigated. Atmospheric conditions at the onset of the flood event are described and evaluated with respect to the general weather situation, initial wetness, and event precipitation. Predominantly persistent westerly situations directed several low pressure systems over the North Sea to Schleswig–Holstein during December 2014, accompanied by prolonged rainfall and finally a strong event precipitation in southern Schleswig–Holstein causing several inland gauges to exceed their by then maximum water levels. An additional storm surge hindering drainage of the catchments into the North and Baltic Sea could have been fatal. Results show that the antecedent precipitation index (API) is able to reflect the soil moisture conditions and, in combination with the maximum 3–day precipitation sum (R3d), to capture the two main drivers finally leading to the flood: (1) Initial wetness of north western Schleswig–Holstein, and (2) strong event precipitation in southern and eastern Schleswig–Holstein from 21–23 December while both indices exceeded their respective 5–year return periods. Further, trend analyses show that both API and R3d are increasing while regional patterns match the north eastward shift of cyclone pathways during recent years, leading to higher risk of flooding in Schleswig–Holstein. Within the Expertennetzwerk, investigations of these and further indices/drivers for earth system changes (e.g. wind surge, sea level rise, land cover changes, and others) derived from observations, reanalyses, and regional climate model data are planned for all German coastal areas: Results can be expected to lead to improved adaptation measures to floods under climate change conditions wherever catchments have to be drained and infrastructures and ecosystems may be harmed, e.g. in other Baltic Sea regions.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Drivers of Snowfall on Thwaites Glacier

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Maclennan ◽  
Jan Lenaerts
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Weather Patterns

<p>High snowfall events on Thwaites Glacier are a key influencer of its ice mass change. In this study, we diagnose the mechanisms for orographic precipitation on Thwaites Glacier by analyzing the atmospheric conditions that lead to high snowfall events. A high-resolution regional climate model, RACMO2, is used in conjunction with MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis to map snowfall and associated atmospheric conditions over the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We examine these conditions during high snowfall events over Thwaites Glacier to characterize the drivers of the precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. Then we examine the seasonal differences in the associated weather patterns and their correlations with El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. Understanding the large-scale atmospheric drivers of snowfall events allows us to recognize how these atmospheric drivers and consequent snowfall climatology will change in the future, which will ultimately improve predictions of accumulation on Thwaites Glacier.</p>

Evaluation of a new snow albedo scheme in RACMO2 for the Greenland ice sheet

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiaan van Dalum ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Stef Lhermitte ◽  
Michiel van den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Snow And Ice

<p>Snow and ice albedo schemes in present day climate models often lack a sophisticated radiation penetration scheme and are limited to a broadband albedo. In this study, we evaluate a new snow albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2 that uses the two-stream radiative transfer in snow model TARTES and the spectral-to-narrowband albedo module SNOWBAL for the Greenland ice sheet. Additionally, the bare ice albedo parameterization has been updated. The snow and ice albedo output of the updated version of RACMO2, referred to as RACMO2.3p3, is evaluated using PROMICE and K-transect in-situ data and MODIS remote-sensing observations. Generally, the RACMO2.3p3 albedo is in very good agreement with satellite observations, leading to a domain-averaged bias of only -0.012. Some discrepancies are, however, observed for regions close to the ice margin. Compared to the previous iteration RACMO2.3p2, the albedo of RACMO2.3p3 is considerably higher in the bare ice zone during the ablation season, as atmospheric conditions now alter the bare ice albedo. For most other regions, however, the albedo of RACMO2.3p3 is lower due to spectral effects, radiation penetration, snow metamorphism or a delayed firn-ice transition. Furthermore, a white-out effect during cloudy conditions is captured and the snow albedo shows a low sensitivity to low soot concentrations. The surface mass balance of RACMO2.3p3 compares well with observations. Subsurface heating, however, now leads to increased melt and refreezing in south Greenland, changing the snow structure.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluating the atmospheric drivers leading to the December 2014 flood in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 405-418
Author(s):  
Nils H. Schade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Antecedent Precipitation

Abstract. Regional analyses of atmospheric conditions that may cause flooding of important transport infrastructure (railway tracks, highways/roads, rivers/channels) and subsequent adaptation measures are part of topic 1 of the network of experts initiated by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). As an example case study, the December 2014 flood in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, was investigated. Atmospheric conditions at the onset of the flood event are described and evaluated with respect to the general weather circulation, initial wetness, and event precipitation. Persistent, predominantly westerly general weather circulations (GWCs) directed several low-pressure systems over the North Sea to Schleswig-Holstein during December 2014, accompanied by prolonged rainfall and finally a strong precipitation event in southern Schleswig-Holstein, causing several inland gauges to exceed their, by then maximum, water levels. Results show that the antecedent precipitation index (API) is able to reflect the soil moisture conditions and, in combination with the maximum 3-day precipitation sum (R3d), to capture the two main drivers finally leading to the flood: (1) the initial wetness of north-western Schleswig-Holstein and (2) strong event precipitation in southern and eastern Schleswig-Holstein from 21 to 23 December; at the same time, both indices exceeded their respective 5-year return periods. Further, trend analyses show that both API and R3d have been increasing during recent years, while regional patterns match the north-eastward shift of cyclone pathways, leading to a higher risk of flooding in Schleswig-Holstein. Within the network of experts, investigations of these and further indices/drivers for earth system changes (e.g. wind surge and sea level rise) derived from observations, reanalyses, and regional climate model data are planned for all German coastal areas. Results can be expected to lead to improved adaptation measures to floods under climate change conditions wherever catchments have to be drained and infrastructures and ecosystems may be harmed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document