scholarly journals A chemistry-transport model simulation of middle atmospheric ozone from 1980 to 2019 using coupled chemistry GCM winds and temperatures

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1143-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Damski ◽  
L. Thölix ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
J. Kaurola ◽  
P. Taalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Atmospheric Ozone ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
The Past

Abstract. A Global 40-year simulation from 1980 to 2019 was performed with the FinROSE chemistry-transport model based on the use of coupled chemistry GCM-data. The main focus of our analysis is on climatological-scale processes in high latitudes. The resulting trend estimates for the past period (1980–1999) agree well with observation-based trend estimates. The results for the future period (2000–2019) suggest that the extent of seasonal ozone depletion over both northern and southern high-latitudes has likely reached its maximum. Furthermore, while climate change is expected to cool the stratosphere, this cooling is unlikely to accelerate significantly high latitude ozone depletion. However, the recovery of seasonal high latitude ozone losses will not take place during the next 15 years.

scholarly journals A chemistry-transport model simulation of middle atmospheric ozone from 1980 to 2019 using coupled chemistry GCM winds and temperatures

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 2165-2181 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Damski ◽  
L. Thölix ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
J. Kaurola ◽  
P. Taalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Atmospheric Ozone ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
The Past

Abstract. A global 40-year simulation from 1980 to 2019 was performed with the FinROSE chemistry-transport model based on the use of coupled chemistry GCM-data. The main focus of our analysis is on climatological-scale processes in high latitudes. The resulting trend estimates for the past period (1980–1999) agree well with observation-based trend estimates. The results for the future period (2000–2019) suggest that the extent of seasonal ozone depletion over both northern and southern high-latitudes has likely reached its maximum. Furthermore, while climate change is expected to cool the stratosphere, this cooling is unlikely to accelerate significantly high latitude ozone depletion. However, the recovery of seasonal high latitude ozone losses will not take place during the next 15 years.

scholarly journals Five blind men and the elephant: what can the NASA Aura ozone measurements tell us about stratosphere-troposphere exchange?

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2357-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Tang ◽  
M. J. Prather
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Atmospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Low Sensitivity ◽  
The University ◽  
Individual Profiles

Abstract. We examine whether the individual ozone (O3) measurements from the four Aura instruments can quantify the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) flux of O3, an important term of the tropospheric O3 budget. The level 2 (L2) Aura swath data and the nearly coincident ozone sondes for the years 2005–2006 are compared with the 4-D, high-resolution (1° × 1° × 40-layer × 0.5 h) model simulation of atmospheric ozone for the same period from the University of California, Irvine chemistry transport model (CTM). The CTM becomes a transfer standard for comparing individual profiles from these five, not-quite-coincident measurements of atmospheric ozone. Even with obvious model discrepancies identified here, the CTM can readily quantify instrument-instrument biases in the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitude lower stratosphere. In terms of STE processes, all four Aura datasets have some skill in identifying stratosphere-troposphere folds, and we find several cases where both model and measurements see evidence of high-O3 stratospheric air entering the troposphere. In many cases identified in the model, however, the individual Aura profile retrievals in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere show too much noise, as expected from their low sensitivity and coarse vertical resolution at and below the tropopause. These model-measurement comparisons of individual profiles do provide some level of confidence in the model-derived STE O3 flux, but it will be difficult to integrate this flux from the satellite data alone.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol scavenging to precipitation intensity and frequency in the context of global climate change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Hou ◽  
Shiliang Wu ◽  
Jessica L. McCarty
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract. Wet deposition driven by precipitation is an important sink for atmospheric aerosols and soluble gases. We investigate the sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol lifetimes to precipitation intensity and frequency in the context of global climate change. Our study, based on the GEOS-Chem model simulation, shows that the removal efficiency and hence the atmospheric lifetime of aerosols have significantly higher sensitivities to precipitation frequencies than to precipitation intensities, indicating that the same amount of precipitation may lead to different removal efficiencies of atmospheric aerosols. Combining the long-term trends of precipitation patterns for various regions with the sensitivities of atmospheric aerosols lifetimes to various precipitation characteristics allows us to examine the potential impacts of precipitation changes on atmospheric aerosols. Analyses based on an observational dataset show that precipitation frequency in some regions have decreased in the past 14 years, which might increase the atmospheric aerosol lifetimes in those regions. Similar analyses based on multiple reanalysis meteorological datasets indicate that the precipitation changes over the past 30 years can lead to perturbations in the atmospheric aerosol lifetimes by 10 % or higher at the regional scale.

scholarly journals CHIMERE-2017: from urban to hemispheric chemistry-transport modeling

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2397-2423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Mailler ◽  
Laurent Menut ◽  
Dmitry Khvorostyanov ◽  
Myrto Valari ◽  
Florian Couvidat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Computational Point ◽  
Improve Model ◽  
Code Complexity

Abstract. CHIMERE is a chemistry-transport model designed for regional atmospheric composition. It can be used at a variety of scales from local to continental domains. However, due to the model design and its historical use as a regional model, major limitations had remained, hampering its use at hemispheric scale, due to the coordinate system used for transport as well as to missing processes that are important in regions outside Europe. Most of these limitations have been removed in the CHIMERE-2017 version, allowing its use in any region of the world and at any scale, from the scale of a single urban area up to hemispheric scale, with or without polar regions included. Other important improvements have been made in the treatment of the physical processes affecting aerosols and the emissions of mineral dust. From a computational point of view, the parallelization strategy of the model has also been updated in order to improve model numerical performance and reduce the code complexity. The present article describes all these changes. Statistical scores for a model simulation over continental Europe are presented, and a simulation of the circumpolar transport of volcanic ash plume from the Puyehue volcanic eruption in June 2011 in Chile provides a test case for the new model version at hemispheric scale.

scholarly journals COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 1350073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q.-B. LU
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Atmospheric Ozone ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O 3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl 4 and HCFCs), CO 2, total O 3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O 3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O 3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O 3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 ~ 25 % of the Antarctic O 3 hole is found, while no recovery of O 3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO 2 concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 ~ 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 ~ 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O 3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O 3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

scholarly journals Assimilation of surface NO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> observations into the SILAM chemistry transport model

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5589-5621 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Vira ◽  
M. Sofiev
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Covariance Matrices ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Seasonal And Diurnal Variation ◽  
Free Running

Abstract. This paper describes assimilation of trace gas observations into the chemistry transport model SILAM using the 3D-Var method. Assimilation results for year 2012 are presented for the prominent photochemical pollutants ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Both species are covered by the Airbase observation database, which provides the observational dataset used in this study. Attention is paid to the background and observation error covariance matrices, which are obtained primarily by iterative application of a posteriori diagnostics. The diagnostics are computed separately for two months representing summer and winter conditions, and further disaggregated by time of day. This allows deriving background and observation error covariance definitions which include both seasonal and diurnal variation. The consistency of the obtained covariance matrices is verified using χ2 diagnostics. The analysis scores are computed for a control set of observation stations withheld from assimilation. Compared to a free-running model simulation, the correlation coefficient for daily maximum values is improved from 0.8 to 0.9 for O3 and from 0.53 to 0.63 for NO2.

scholarly journals The impact of a future H<sub>2</sub>-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 19371-19421 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Wang ◽  
W. Jia ◽  
S. C. Olsen ◽  
D. J. Wuebbles ◽  
M. K. Dubey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nitrate Aerosol

Abstract. Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuel in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here we evaluate the impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem). Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector, however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that with the adoption of H2 fuel cells decreases tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%), CO (14%), NOx (16%), soot (17%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12%) in the A1FI scenario, and decreases those of ozone (5%), CO (4%), NOx (11%), soot (7%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9 %) in the B1 scenario. The adoption of H2 internal combustion engines decreases tropospheric burdens of ozone (1%), CO (18%), soot (17%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the A1FI scenario, and decreases those of ozone (1%), CO (7%), soot (7%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the B1 scenario. In the future, people residing in the contiguous United States are expected to experience significantly fewer days of elevated levels of pollution if a H2 fuel cell road transportation sector is adopted. Health benefits of transitioning to a H2 economy for citizens in developing nations, like China and India, will be much more dramatic particularly in megacities with severe air-quality problems that are exacerbating.

scholarly journals CHIMERE-2016: From urban to hemispheric chemistry-transport modeling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Mailler ◽  
Laurent Menut ◽  
Dmitry Khvorostyanov ◽  
Myrto Valari ◽  
Florian Couvidat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Eulerian Model ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Computational Point ◽  
Improve Model

Abstract. CHIMERE is a chemistry-transport model initially designed for box-modelling of regional atmospheric composition. In the past decade, it has been converted into a 3D eulerian model that could be used at a variety of scales from local to continental domains. However, due to the model design and its historic use as a regional model, major limitations had remained, prohibiting its use at hemispheric scale, due to the coordinate system used for transport as well as to missing processes that are important in regions outside Europe. Most of these limitations have been lifted in the CHIMERE-2016 version, allowing its use in any region of the world and at any scale, from the scale of a single urban area up to hemispheric scale, including or not polar regions. Other important improvements have been brought in the treatment of the physical processes affecting aerosols and the emissions of mineral dust. From a computational point of view, the parallelization strategy of the model has also been improved in order to improve model numerical performance. The present article describes all these changes. Scores for a model simulation over continental Europe are presented, and a simulation of the circumpolar transport of volcanic ash plume from the Puyehue volcanic eruption in June 2011 in Chile provides a test case for the new model version at hemispheric scale.

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