scholarly journals Coupled wave and surge modelling and implications for coastal flooding

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 19-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Irish Sea ◽  
Liverpool Bay ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wave Models ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Mean Circulation

Abstract. The physical causes of coastal flooding due to marine storms are discussed. We examine the costs and impacts of storm surges and waves with reference to the UK. The mechanisms of interaction between waves and the mean circulation due to tides and wind are reviewed. A case study to illustrate the magnitude of surges, waves and their interactions is presented for Liverpool Bay in the eastern Irish Sea. Applications of surge and wave models to the Mediterranean, especially the Adriatic Sea, are considered.

scholarly journals Risk assessment for areas prone to flooding and subsidence: a case study from Bergen, Western Norway

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 322-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guri Venvik ◽  
Ane Bang-Kittilsen ◽  
Floris C. Boogaard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Surface Water Management

Abstract Bergen city centre is prone to both subsidence and flooding. With a predicted increase in precipitation due to climate change, a higher proportion of rainfall becomes surface runoff, which results in increased peak flood discharges. In addition, it has been predicted that sea-level rise and increasing storm surges will result in coastal flooding. In this study, the dual hazards of flooding and subsidence are analysed to exemplify possible risk assessment maps for areas most prone to the combination of both. Risk assessment maps are a support tool to identify areas where mitigation of subsidence and adaptation for surface water management will be most efficient and measures can be implemented. The results show that dual hazard assessment, like that described in this paper, can be a useful tool for decision-makers when prioritizing areas to implement measures such as Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems.

scholarly journals Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Kathleen Carvalho ◽  
João Paulo Vicente ◽  
Mihajlo Jakovljevic ◽  
João Paulo Ramos Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Medical Studies ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.

scholarly journals Modelling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: Methodology and simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Ben Daoued ◽  
Yasser Hamdi ◽  
Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau ◽  
Philippe Sergent
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Flooding Hazard

Abstract. Coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to be designed to withstand extreme weather conditions and must, in particular, be protected against coastal floods because it is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. Indeed, considering the combination of tide and extreme storm surges (SSs) is a key issue in the evaluation of the risk associated to coastal flooding hazard. Tide and extreme SSs are considered as independent. While there are several approaches to analyze and characterize coastal flooding hazard with either extreme SSs or sea levels, only few studies propose and compare several approaches combining the tide density with the SS variable. Thus this study aims to develop a method for modelling dependence and coincidence of SSs and high tide. In this work, we have used existing methods for tide and SS combination and tried to improve the results by proposing a new alternative approach while showing the limitations and advantages of each method. The city of Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return levels estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.

scholarly journals Monitoring and modelling of the Irish Sea and Liverpool Bay: An overview and an SPM case study

2008 ◽  
Vol 212 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 37-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Krivtsov ◽  
M.J. Howarth ◽  
S.E. Jones ◽  
A.J. Souza ◽  
C.F. Jago
Keyword(s):  
Irish Sea ◽  
Liverpool Bay ◽  
The Irish Sea

Coastal windstorms create unsteady, unpredictable storm surges in a fluvial Maine estuary

Shore & Beach ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
Preston Spicer ◽  
Pascal Matte ◽  
Kimberly Huguenard ◽  
Laura Rickard
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Barometric Pressure ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Tidal Wave ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wave Propagation Speed

Storm surges create coastal flooding that can be damaging to life and property. In estuaries with significant river influence (fluvial), it is possible for tides, storm surge, and river discharge to interact and enhance surges relative to the immediate coast. These tide-surge-river interactions were previously identified in a fluvial Maine estuary as higher frequency (>four cycles per day) oscillations to storm surge which were proposed to be incited by enhanced friction and resonance during certain windstorm events (Spicer et al. 2019). The relative contributions to tide-surge-river interaction from atmospheric forcing variables (wind, barometric pressure, and externally generated surge) remains unclear. This work seeks to decompose and analyze a recent windstorm surge event to better isolate the effects of atmospheric forcing on tidesurge- river interaction. Results show total storm surges in the fluvial estuary to be two times larger than at the estuary mouth because of tide-surge-river interaction. Analysis indicated at least 50% of the magnitude of tide-surge-river interactions are created by non-tidal forcing, in the form of wind, enhancing frictional energy in the estuary. The remaining tide-surge-river interaction is likely a result of changes in tidal wave propagation speed due to surge deepening the mean estuary water level.

scholarly journals Modeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 3387-3398
Author(s):  
Amine Ben Daoued ◽  
Yasser Hamdi ◽  
Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau ◽  
Philippe Sergent
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Flooding Hazard ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels

Abstract. Coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to be designed to withstand extreme weather conditions and must, in particular, be protected against coastal floods because it is the most important source of coastal lowland inundations. Indeed, considering the combination of tide and extreme storm surges (SSs) is a key issue in the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazard. Most existing studies are generally based on the assumption that high tides and extreme SSs are independent. While there are several approaches to analyze and characterize coastal flooding hazard with either extreme SSs or sea levels, only few studies propose and compare several approaches combining the tide density with the SS variable. Thus this study aims to develop a method for modeling dependence and coincidence of SSs and high tide. In this work, we have used existing methods for tide and SS combination and tried to improve the results by proposing a new alternative approach while showing the limitations and advantages of each method. Indeed, in order to estimate extreme sea levels, the classic joint probability method (JPM) is used by making use of a convolution between tide and the skew storm surge (SSS). Another statistical indirect analysis using the maximum instantaneous storm surge (MSS) is proposed in this paper as an alternative to the first method with the SSS variable. A direct frequency analysis using the extreme total sea level is also used as a reference method. The question we are trying to answer in this paper is then the coincidence and dependency essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis. The results brought to light a bias in the MSS-based procedure compared to the direct statistics on sea levels, and this bias is more important for high return periods. It was also concluded that an appropriate coincidence probability concept, considering the dependence structure between SSs, is needed for a better assessment of the risk using the MSS. The city of Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level (RL) estimates using the MSS variable are quite different from those obtained with the method using the SSSs, with acceptable uncertainty. Furthermore, the shape parameter is negative from all the methods with a much heavier tail when the SSS and the extreme sea levels (ESLs) are used as variables of interest.

Neither Victors nor Victims

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Whetham
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Civil Military Relations ◽  
High Street ◽  
National Survival ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Realistic Goal

Between 2007 and 2011, Wootton Bassett, a small Wiltshire town in the UK, became the focus of national attention as its residents responded to the regular repatriations of dead soldiers through its High Street. The town’s response came to symbolize the way that broader attitudes developed and changed over that period. As such, it is a fascinating case study in civil–military relations in the twenty-first century. Success may be the same as victory, but victory, at least as it has been traditionally understood, is not a realistic goal in many types of contemporary conflict. Discretionary wars—conflicts in which national survival is not an issue and even vital national interests may not be at stake—pose particular challenges for any government which does not explain why the cost being paid in blood and treasure is ‘worth it’.

The political economy of and practical policies for inclusive growth—a case study of Scotland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Houston ◽  
Georgiana Varna ◽  
Iain Docherty
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Regional Governance ◽  
Community Empowerment ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Inclusive Governance ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Civic Institutions

Abstract The concept of ‘inclusive growth’ (IG) is discussed in a political economy framework. The article reports comparative analysis of economic and planning policy documents from Scotland, England and the UK and findings from expert workshops held in Scotland, which identify four key policy areas for ‘inclusive growth’: skills, transport and housing for young people; city-regional governance; childcare; and place-making. These policies share with the ‘Foundational Economy’ an emphasis on everyday infrastructure and services, but add an emphasis on inter-generational justice and stress the importance of community empowerment as much as re-municipalisation. Factors enabling IG policy development include: the necessary political powers; a unifying political discourse and civic institutions; and inclusive governance and participatory democracy.

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